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| | |-+  Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)
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Author Topic: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)  (Read 27602 times)
RodPresident
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« Reply #225 on: November 19, 2017, 05:03:45 pm »

With 2.14% of polling stations (125k votes)

Piñera 36,6%
Guillier 22,2%
Sánchez 20,2%
Kast 8,4%
Goic 6,1%
MEO 5,5%


If this results keep at this way... then Guillier is a favourite to runoff? And MEO main function in election was to take Sánchez out of runoff?
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seb_pard
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« Reply #226 on: November 19, 2017, 05:07:14 pm »

Projection by Radio BioBio


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seb_pard
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« Reply #227 on: November 19, 2017, 05:16:27 pm »

In the counting in Tarapaca Region, you can listen people chanting: "Cualquiera, cualquiera, menos Piñera!" (Anyone, anyone but Piñera) jajajaja.



Needless to say that I'm very happy with these results, I was expecting Piñera over 40% (around 45%).

Cheesy Cheesy
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seb_pard
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« Reply #228 on: November 19, 2017, 05:19:08 pm »

With 2.14% of polling stations (125k votes)

Piñera 36,6%
Guillier 22,2%
Sánchez 20,2%
Kast 8,4%
Goic 6,1%
MEO 5,5%


If this results keep at this way... then Guillier is a favourite to runoff? And MEO main function in election was to take Sánchez out of runoff?

Yes I think, outside RM I think Guillier will get much better results than Sachez, although she will win in Santiago (she is doing very good with the urban middle class).

No I don't think so about MEO, he is an egocentric narcissist and he was still thinking he would win (and he dedicated his campaign to attack Guillier). He burned bridges with anyone.

« Last Edit: November 19, 2017, 05:25:41 pm by seb_pard »Logged

jaichind
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« Reply #229 on: November 19, 2017, 05:30:58 pm »

Any exit polls on how a Piñera vs Guillier second round would look like ?
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« Reply #230 on: November 19, 2017, 05:31:38 pm »

Is there any newspaper with a nationwide map?  Perhaps I have been spoiled by all the European elections recently. Servel doesn't appear to have one, and I have been checking some of the papers sites, though I haven't seen one, yet.
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« Reply #231 on: November 19, 2017, 05:42:58 pm »

There aren't any exit poll, and judging by these results any poll that we had before the election is useless.

With respect to maps, no we haven't, we will have in a few days probably but we don't use maps for elections (if I see one I would post ASAP), one of the reasons is the shape of the country, is too long and narrow.
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jaichind
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« Reply #232 on: November 19, 2017, 05:47:01 pm »

It is interesting that we went from 2% of the vote counted to 33% yet the rough ratio of votes between Piñera, Guillier, and Sánchez are mostly constant.  Are there some large urban areas (like Santiago) which are reporting much slower or much faster than the country as a whole.  If not then I suspect what we have now will be the results. 
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« Reply #233 on: November 19, 2017, 05:52:00 pm »

It is interesting that we went from 2% of the vote counted to 33% yet the rough ratio of votes between Piñera, Guillier, and Sánchez are mostly constant.  Are there some large urban areas (like Santiago) which are reporting much slower or much faster than the country as a whole.  If not then I suspect what we have now will be the results. 
It's actually very mixed, my district, which is very urban, has the 55% of the vote counted (now is 43% nationally) and some regions from the extreme north have less than 30% of the vote counted. I don't think the % will move too much.
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jaichind
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« Reply #234 on: November 19, 2017, 05:52:47 pm »

With 2.14% of polling stations (125k votes)

Piñera 36,6%
Guillier 22,2%
Sánchez 20,2%
Kast 8,4%
Goic 6,1%
MEO 5,5%


If this results keep at this way... then Guillier is a favourite to runoff? And MEO main function in election was to take Sánchez out of runoff?

Why would that be?  Would not Piñera pick up the Kast and Goic votes on the second round?  I must be missing something.
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« Reply #235 on: November 19, 2017, 05:54:40 pm »

Is it just me, or has Piñera been very slowly creeping up in the vote?

Edit: As I say this, I just realized we have been stuck at 43% for a while.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #236 on: November 19, 2017, 05:58:25 pm »

With 2.14% of polling stations (125k votes)

Piñera 36,6%
Guillier 22,2%
Sánchez 20,2%
Kast 8,4%
Goic 6,1%
MEO 5,5%


If this results keep at this way... then Guillier is a favourite to runoff? And MEO main function in election was to take Sánchez out of runoff?

Why would that be?  Would not Piñera pick up the Kast and Goic votes on the second round?  I must be missing something.
I don't think that this make Guillier the favorite, but this changes dramatically the narrative of the election, and is important to say that Goic voters are much closer to Guillier than Piñera (part of my maternal family voted for Goic and all of the but one will vote for Guiller, they hate Piñera). A fraction of her voters will vote for Piñera, but not the majority. I think that 99% of Kast voters will vote Piñera in the run-off.

The thing is that Guillier will have to show a consistent message, a thing that was lacked during the campaign.
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« Reply #237 on: November 19, 2017, 06:01:27 pm »

Is it just me, or has Piñera been very slowly creeping up in the vote?

Edit: As I say this, I just realized we have been stuck at 43% for a while.
We have 53% now Cheesy
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jaichind
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« Reply #238 on: November 19, 2017, 06:02:36 pm »

Is it just me, or has Piñera been very slowly creeping up in the vote?

Edit: As I say this, I just realized we have been stuck at 43% for a while.
We have 53% now Cheesy

Yeah, but the vote shares stay virtually unchanged. 
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« Reply #239 on: November 19, 2017, 06:11:53 pm »

Piñera gains .01% as we jump to 61%. The  vote is just too stable!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #240 on: November 19, 2017, 06:20:04 pm »

huh

judging by this, Guillier has a real shot in Round 2.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #241 on: November 19, 2017, 06:27:23 pm »

In the last update, Guillier passed the One Million vote mark.

Piñera passed it a while ago, and Sanchez is less then 100K off. 
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« Reply #242 on: November 19, 2017, 06:43:11 pm »

Any idea why Aysén del General Carlos Ibáñez del Campo's count is so far behind the nation?
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seb_pard
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« Reply #243 on: November 19, 2017, 06:45:45 pm »

My polling station:
Piñera: 183 (67.78%)
Kast: 29 (10.74%)
Goic: 20 (7.41%)
Sanchez: 18 (6.67%)
Guiller: 16 (5.93%)
Artes: 3 (1.11%)
Navarro: 1 (0.37%)

Total: 270
4 invalid votes.

Totally expected haha
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seb_pard
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« Reply #244 on: November 19, 2017, 06:50:27 pm »

Any idea why Aysén del General Carlos Ibáñez del Campo's count is so far behind the nation?
Honestly, I have no idea, that region is very rural and some people live in very isolated areas, but urban parts are the less counted parts. Btw is a very beautiful region, this is a picture:



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seb_pard
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« Reply #245 on: November 19, 2017, 06:55:47 pm »

Goic is speaking, talking about a worst than expected outcome. The party is very divided, so don't expect an endorsement until the leaders meet in the next days. Although she congratulated specially Alejandro Guillier, wishing her best to defeat Piñera.
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maineiac4434🌲🌹
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« Reply #246 on: November 19, 2017, 06:58:56 pm »

My polling station:
Piñera: 183 (67.78%)
Kast: 29 (10.74%)
Goic: 20 (7.41%)
Sanchez: 18 (6.67%)
Guiller: 16 (5.93%)
Artes: 3 (1.11%)
Navarro: 1 (0.37%)

Total: 270
4 invalid votes.

Totally expected haha
You’re the only Socialist in your neighborhood!
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seb_pard
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« Reply #247 on: November 19, 2017, 07:38:52 pm »

Now let's focus on congress. For deputies 41% of the vote is counted (later we will se the elected deputies) and the preliminary results by party/group is the following:

Chile Vamos (center-right to right): 38.6%
 -UDI: 16.7%
 -RN: 17.5%
 -Evopoli: 3.6%
 -PRI: 3.6%

New Majority (center-left to left): 24.4%
 -Communist Party: 4.5%
 -Socialist Party: 9.9%
 -Party for Democracy: 6.3%
 -Social Democratic Radical Party: 3.7%

Christian Democrats (center): 10.4%

Broad Front (left): 16.3%

Pro (center-left): 3.3%

Chile is left of center country, this is a very good result for the Broad Front and a descent result for New Majority. Chile Vamos still have problems reaching 40%. Later we will se the composition of congress.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #248 on: November 19, 2017, 07:39:23 pm »

My polling station:
Piñera: 183 (67.78%)
Kast: 29 (10.74%)
Goic: 20 (7.41%)
Sanchez: 18 (6.67%)
Guiller: 16 (5.93%)
Artes: 3 (1.11%)
Navarro: 1 (0.37%)

Total: 270
4 invalid votes.

Totally expected haha
You’re the only Socialist in your neighborhood!
Uff you have no idea, tomorrow I will arrive at work with a smile, my workmates are going to be saad! Cheesy
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maineiac4434🌲🌹
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« Reply #249 on: November 19, 2017, 09:27:11 pm »

So Guillier has to be favored in the second round, right? Assuming he can consolidate the support of Goic, Sanchez and MEO.
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