Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 19, 2018, 06:23:31 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash)
| | |-+  Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 [11] 12 13 14 15 Print
Author Topic: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)  (Read 27505 times)
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,862
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #250 on: November 19, 2017, 10:47:18 pm »

Unless I'm mistaken havn't polls showed Piñera leading in the second round?
Logged
Khristie Kreme Donuts
interstate73
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 616


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #251 on: November 19, 2017, 11:23:21 pm »

Unless I'm mistaken havn't polls showed Piñera leading in the second round?

Those polls also had him in the 40s in the first round and he got 36%, plus I imagine the second round is a whole different ballgame from the pre-first round campaign.
Logged

maineiac4434🌲🌹
MAINEiac4434
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,160
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #252 on: November 19, 2017, 11:29:36 pm »

Unless I'm mistaken havn't polls showed Piñera leading in the second round?
42-36 in the most recent one. Lots of room to grow for both - but judging by the first round, more room for Guillier.
Logged

mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,204
Canada


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #253 on: November 20, 2017, 01:04:21 am »

It looks like more voted for parties on the left than right. Doubt Guiller will win, but it seems Pinera underperformed most polls. Could it be many on the right thought he had it in the bag so stayed home? What about those who voted for other left wing parties; will they mostly go over to Guillier, will some go over to Pinera, or will many just not vote at all?
Logged

seb_pard
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 464
Chile
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #254 on: November 20, 2017, 06:50:01 am »

I don't think that many people on the right stayed at home, they are very disciplined and until yesterday they were very excited with the possible outcome.

It's important to know the context that we had until sunday. The left was totally demoralized, and the press was expecting a night of the long knives among the New Majority and the Broad Frond with the reconquest of the party of order (a group of politicians of the old Concertación that were the leaders during the transition and are very critical of Bachelet). The right to the contrary, has seen this election as the last chance to save the country from a government and a ideology that they really don't like (I always have seen the right here not so much as free marketers as pretty much defenders of their businesses, as you can see for example with Transbank, the credit cart service-I will explain laterthat-).

What happened yesterday? Piñera did a lot worse than expected (they hoped to win in the first round), Guillier a little better than expected and Sanchez much better than expected. In congress the Broad Front won 20 seats (the best case scenario for them was 10!) and among the New Majority and the Christian Democrats, the politicians that were more critical of Bachelet performed very bad, so I think this is a victory for Bachelet. People here want a further implementation of reforms and aren't critical of the policies of the New Majority, but of the way the coalition acts.

Piñera is still the favorite, but yesterday the narrative changed, and now Guillier has a path to win, he knows now how to work to defeat Piñera. It's a though job, but until yesterday it was impossible.

A good article in El Mostrador (online newspaper):

Chile wakes up looking to the left

http://www.elmostrador.cl/noticias/pais/2017/11/20/chile-amanece-mirando-a-la-izquierda/

Yesterday was a very good night for progressives, specially due to our expectations.
Logged

Lumine
LumineVonReuental
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,974
Chile
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #255 on: November 20, 2017, 10:25:14 am »

It was quite a night, Chile Vamos and the right won an astounding victory in Congress and with the Frente Amplio having such an unexpectedly good performance Nueva Mayoria is now reduced to virtually a third of the Chamber of Deputies. The candidate I was working for also won with some good numbers, so I'm very much encouraged after last night.

As to the second round, it's impossible to say. On one hand, it shouldn't be feasible for Guillier to go from 22% to more than 50% given the large distance involved, but on the other hand it is hard to see where Piñera could gain more votes among those who already voted on the first round. Even if we assume Kast voters all go for him and most of the Christian Democrats do too (which is a bit of a far-fetched scenario) it still doesn't amount to 50%.

It will be tense, although I've relaxed after seeing the numbers in Congress. Even if Guillier is elected he'll be a lameduck with that level of support, not even a deal with the Frente Amplio (which would be extremely divisive) will get him a parliamentary majority. If Piñera fails, well, we'll just have to stand strong in Congress and try another time.
Logged

Interested on a US-Based Parliamentary game?

Try "The Great Experiment": https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295128.0
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,164
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #256 on: November 20, 2017, 02:31:27 pm »

Cas Mudde, expert on the populist radical right in Europe and the U.S., tweeted that José Antonio Kast is "far right". What is his profile exactly, beyond what was said in the OP?
Logged

Anomalocaris🌹
wolfentoad66
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,400
Northern Mariana Islands
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #257 on: November 20, 2017, 02:56:01 pm »

A bit OT, but is Bachelet's Presidential portrait just a photoshopped version of her campaign portrait? Her face looks exactly the same:


Logged

maineiac4434🌲🌹
MAINEiac4434
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,160
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #258 on: November 20, 2017, 03:11:16 pm »

A bit OT, but is Bachelet's Presidential portrait just a photoshopped version of her campaign portrait? Her face looks exactly the same:



She’s also wearing the same outfit and that M pin is clearly shopped on.
Logged

Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,657
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #259 on: November 20, 2017, 03:47:39 pm »

So what do the Congress results look like? I can't find anything on Wikipedia.
Logged


"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
Lumine
LumineVonReuental
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,974
Chile
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #260 on: November 20, 2017, 04:04:32 pm »

So what do the Congress results look like? I can't find anything on Wikipedia.

Senate (43):

Chile Vamos (19): 9 UDI, 8 RN, 2 EVO
Nueva Mayoria (16): 7 PPD, 7 PS, 1 PRSD, 1 IND
Frente Amplio (1): 1 RD
Other (7): 5 PDC, 1 PAIS, 1 IND

Deputies (155):

Chile Vamos (73): 36 RN, 31 UDI, 6 EVO
Nueva Mayoria (43): 18 PS, 9 PRSD, 8 PPD, 8 PC
Frente Amplio (20): 10 RD, PH 5, PL 2, PEV 1, PI, 1, PODER 1
Other (19): 13 PDC, 4 FRSV, 1 PRO, 1 IND
Logged

Interested on a US-Based Parliamentary game?

Try "The Great Experiment": https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295128.0
seb_pard
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 464
Chile
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #261 on: November 20, 2017, 04:12:15 pm »

So what do the Congress results look like? I can't find anything on Wikipedia.

Senate (43):

Chile Vamos (19): 9 UDI, 8 RN, 2 EVO
Nueva Mayoria (16): 7 PPD, 7 PS, 1 PRSD, 1 IND
Frente Amplio (1): 1 RD
Other (7): 5 PDC, 1 PAIS, 1 IND

Deputies (155):

Chile Vamos (73): 36 RN, 31 UDI, 6 EVO
Nueva Mayoria (43): 18 PS, 9 PRSD, 8 PPD, 8 PC
Frente Amplio (20): 10 RD, PH 5, PL 2, PEV 1, PI, 1, PODER 1
Other (19): 13 PDC, 4 FRSV, 1 PRO, 1 IND

Also here

http://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2017/11/19/883846/Interactivo-de-la-Camara-de-Diputados-Como-queda-conformado-el-hemiciclo.html
Logged

seb_pard
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 464
Chile
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #262 on: November 20, 2017, 06:45:35 pm »

Breaking news: Carolina Goic has resigned as leader of the DC and the Christian Democrats have announced their support for Alejandro Guillier.
Logged

maineiac4434🌲🌹
MAINEiac4434
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,160
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #263 on: November 20, 2017, 06:55:16 pm »

Breaking news: Carolina Goic has resigned as leader of the DC and the Christian Democrats have announced their support for Alejandro Guillier.
Brexit. Trump. Corbyn. Now Guillier.

The election surprises don't stop!
Logged

Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,912


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #264 on: November 20, 2017, 07:07:30 pm »

Shocking. Just further confirms that the sleepiness felt before the first round is now gone. And the thing is, we don't even have any idea who is favored. Piñera is leads, but has fewer votes to gain from the other parties. Guillier has more votes to gain, but also more votes to lose. With the divisions in the left from the past year, I doubt Guillier is going to hold anywhere close to 100% of the voters that turned out. There is going to be some dropoff, as people find reasons to sit out and register their dissatisfaction with the choices. For a first round electorate that I would say is probably 52-54% left/48-46% right, this is dangerous for Guillier.

On a separate note, which color do you think is better for the Broad Front on a map: Purple like you have been using, or Orange/brown which Wikipedia uses. Red for NM, Blue for CV obviously. Surprisingly for the Broad Front vote share, I have only found three (non-foreign) communes Sanchez won: Rapa Nui, Vaparaiso, and Puento Alto south of Santiago.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2017, 10:12:24 pm by Oryxslayer »Logged

^The SWPA Lamb oddities are because Lamb is abandoning the 14th for the 17th

That feeling when you are called a Conservative in the Bay Area for just being a Center-Left Democrat.
I now have a Twitter for my maps: https://twitter.com/OryxMaps
seb_pard
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 464
Chile
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #265 on: November 21, 2017, 06:47:38 am »

Shocking. Just further confirms that the sleepiness felt before the first round is now gone. And the thing is, we don't even have any idea who is favored. Piñera is leads, but has fewer votes to gain from the other parties. Guillier has more votes to gain, but also more votes to lose. With the divisions in the left from the past year, I doubt Guillier is going to hold anywhere close to 100% of the voters that turned out. There is going to be some dropoff, as people find reasons to sit out and register their dissatisfaction with the choices. For a first round electorate that I would say is probably 52-54% left/48-46% right, this is dangerous for Guillier.

On a separate note, which color do you think is better for the Broad Front on a map: Purple like you have been using, or Orange/brown which Wikipedia uses. Red for NM, Blue for CV obviously. Surprisingly for the Broad Front vote share, I have only found three (non-foreign) communes Sanchez won: Rapa Nui, Vaparaiso, and Puento Alto south of Santiago.
Purple for the Broad Front is the better (from what I remember a TV channel used that color here), also green could serve, but orange no.

Yes, Sanchez only won those three communes, that besides Rapa Nui, those aren't small wins. Valparaiso is one of the most famous cities in the country, and have a lot of issues like poverty, trash and cultural preservation. The mayor is from the Broad Front (Jorge Sharp) and he is pretty popular there, and from what I listened, he is doing a very good job. Puente Alto is a suburb of Santiago and is one of the most populous communes in the country (maybe the first or second), it's a mix of middle class population and some poor neighborhoods ridden by poverty and crime.
Rapa Nui is the Eastern island, and the voting pattern there seems a little bit clientelistic.
Logged

warandwar
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 420
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #266 on: November 21, 2017, 12:29:10 pm »

What are the various characteristics/ideologies of the parties in the Broad Front?

I'm liking the looks of this. A friend of mine who's very high up in DSA is visiting Chile this December. Seems like a good time to meet up with some socialists!
Logged

Lumine
LumineVonReuental
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,974
Chile
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #267 on: November 23, 2017, 03:36:15 pm »

Cas Mudde, expert on the populist radical right in Europe and the U.S., tweeted that José Antonio Kast is "far right". What is his profile exactly, beyond what was said in the OP?

I would assert the "far-right" monicker to be rather misguided, Kast is a right-winger and has a fair share of alt-right followers (very present in social media), but to put him aside people like Le Pen for example would be a mistake.

Kast is for all purposes a staunchly social conservative, pro-free market figure with a hard-line profile given his ocassional ties to pro-Pinochet views (unlike many in UDI, it should be noted Kast was not in politics during Pinochet's regime), but with a platform with views that would be considered normal for a right-wing candidate in other parts of the world. He supports fighting the deficit, reducing the government size, some increased gun rights and he has a strong anti-left discourse.

He's demonized as this uber pro-Pinochet right winger by quite a few, but the more I learned about Kast during the campaign the more interested he seemed regardless of how much I disapprove of many of his policies. Being a country that leans to the center-left and Piñera being in permanent moderate hero mode, it's refreshing seeing a presidential candidate actually defending right-wing views or policies.
Logged

Interested on a US-Based Parliamentary game?

Try "The Great Experiment": https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295128.0
seb_pard
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 464
Chile
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #268 on: November 26, 2017, 06:30:48 pm »

La Tercera asked elected senators and deputies different questions about economic, moral and politic themes, and gives the results by coalition (they add the DC to New Majority). It's pretty interesting, these are the results:

Economic issues
1. Free college education: How would you vote?
Blue: Maintain current coverage (the poorer 50% of the population
Red: Expand
Black: End free education and relocate resources



2. Pension system: How would you vote (link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pensions_in_Chile )
Blue: Abolish the AFPs (private insurers)
Red: Reform the system without abolishing the AFPs



3. About the financing of the army:
Blue: In favor of abolishing the Reserved Law of Copper (10% of gross revenues of CODELCO, chilean largest state company, goes to the army)
Red: Against



4. Healthcare system:
Blue: Abolish the ISAPRES (private insurers) and implementate universal insurance.
Red: Against of abolishing the ISAPRES.


« Last Edit: November 26, 2017, 07:03:07 pm by seb_pard »Logged

seb_pard
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 464
Chile
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #269 on: November 26, 2017, 06:49:06 pm »

Politics

1. Limiting reelection in congress.
Blue: Keep current system (unlimited reelection).
Red: Limit reelection







2. Constitutional Assembly
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







3. New constitution (are you in favor of a mechanism to elaborate a new constitution?)
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







4. Eastern Island: More or Less Autonomy?
Blue: More
Red: Less







5. Mandatory or voluntary vote?
Blue: Mandatory
Red: Voluntary







6. Maintain the current presidential system (without consecutive reelection)?
Blue: Keep the 4 years without reelection
Red: Change it.







7. Are you in favor of lowered the salaries of senators and deputies?
Blue: Lower it
Red: Against







8. Are you in favor of closing Punta Peuco (jail of human rights violators, has high standards and there's a lot of pressure to close it and send the convicts to regular jails)?
Blue: Close it
Red: Keep it







9. Are you in favor of reducing the minimum age of penal responsibility?
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







10. Are the attacks in the Araucania considered terrorism (Mapuche conflict)?
Blue: Yes
Red: No







11. In favor of give to Bolivia sovereign access to the sea?
Blue: Yes
Red: No







12. Keep Congress in Valparaiso or change it to Santiago?
Blue: Valparaiso
Red: Santiago

Logged

seb_pard
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 464
Chile
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #270 on: November 26, 2017, 06:57:03 pm »

Moral Issues


1. Are you in favor that transgender children can change legally their genders?
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







2. Legalization of weed
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







3. In favor of same-sex couples adopting?
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







4. Same-sex Marriage
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







5. In favor of voluntary Euthanasia for terminal patients?
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







6. Abortion: Expand the three causal? (I posted about it a few months ago)
Blue: Expan them
Red: Against expand them (could be keep them or abolish them)







7. Limit Rodeo? (chilean sport, very cruel against cows)
Blue: Limit it
Red: Don't limit



Logged

seb_pard
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 464
Chile
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #271 on: November 26, 2017, 07:23:08 pm »

What are the various characteristics/ideologies of the parties in the Broad Front?

I'm liking the looks of this. A friend of mine who's very high up in DSA is visiting Chile this December. Seems like a good time to meet up with some socialists!

I have many friends from college who are Democratic Revolution's militants (largest party of the Broad Front), and if you or your friend want to I could arrange a meeting or something like that with Rodrigo Echecopar, RD's president (could also with Giorgio Jackson, but honestly, that could be much harder).

Seriously, I could happily do it.
Logged

Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,746
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #272 on: November 26, 2017, 07:53:53 pm »

those numbers on social issues are pretty surprising to me - I've made the assumption that Latin American countries are fairly socially conservative in comparison to the United States. Yet I bet the numbers in the US House would probably match those in the Chilean legislature and so many many more in Chile support marijuana legalization.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,843
Western Sahara


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #273 on: November 26, 2017, 09:06:38 pm »

Just finished a first riund map of results by commune. It's too big-sized for uploading to my gallery, so I'll leave a link.

https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/chile-2017.png
Logged

Lumine
LumineVonReuental
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,974
Chile
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #274 on: November 27, 2017, 08:26:03 pm »

The campaign to win over more allies is in full force! Piñera has gathered Jose Antonio Kast and his bitter rival Senator Jose Manuel Ossandon, solifidying the right behind him. He's also recieved support from some members of the centrist liberal party Ciudadanos, although Andres Velasco has remained neutral. Guillier has recieved the endorsements of Goic, Navarro and Ominami, plus the Federación Regionalista Verde Social (a minor party that just won 4 Deputies thanks to the new electoral system).

Several parties inside the Frente Amplio have refused to support Guillier or declared their party members are free to vote for any candidate (that is to say, to freely vote Guillier or not vote at all). It is however possible that Revolucion Democratica (by far the most powerful party inside the coalition) decides to support Guillier.

There's the first poll too, from Cadem. Cadem itself has come under heavy fire for overestimating Piñera and underestimating Sanchez, so don't read too much into it:

Cadem: Runoff:

Piñera 40%
Guillier 37%
Undecided 23%
Logged

Interested on a US-Based Parliamentary game?

Try "The Great Experiment": https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295128.0
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 [11] 12 13 14 15 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines