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Author Topic: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)  (Read 28442 times)
Lumine
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« Reply #275 on: November 27, 2017, 08:29:31 pm »

Just finished a first riund map of results by commune. It's too big-sized for uploading to my gallery, so I'll leave a link.

https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/chile-2017.png

Great work, Velasco!
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« Reply #276 on: November 27, 2017, 10:59:00 pm »

Wow, Guillier may yet win this.
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Lumine
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« Reply #277 on: November 27, 2017, 11:25:44 pm »

Wow, Guillier may yet win this.

I would argue he has a 40-45% chance of winning, actually. Piñera's ceiling is way too low, so it's all depending on turnout. If more than 60-70% of Sanchez voters turn out for Guillier, Piñera is toast.

Either way it should be awfully close, closest election since 1999-2000.
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Velasco
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« Reply #278 on: November 28, 2017, 03:49:23 am »

I'd say Piñera is still the favourite, but the second round is going to be more exciting than expected. The surge of Frente Amplio has changed everything and refutes some preconceived notions, such as most of people in Chile thinking that reforms went too far. Also, the good performance of José Antonio Kast talks about the continued existence of an ultraconservative vote nostalgic for Pinochet. Frente Amplio and Kast are opposite poles: the future and the past.

The main problem for Piñera is that he needs to attract centrist voters, while needs to retain the ultraconservative "Tea Party" represented by Kast. In that regard, Piñera has the advantage that most of Kast voters may support him just to stop the left. I'd say that Piñera should not make concessions to his right wing and focus on the wavering centrist vote.

The problem for Alejandro Guillier is that he's far from having secured the support of FA voters. My opinion is that people in the governing centre-left coalition should make a correct reading of the result. They have lost the hegemony in the progressive camp. Guillier and the coalition supporting him need to make attractive offers in order to attract the FA vote, as well to retain the centrist vote represented by the PDC. It's quite a delicate balance.

Great work, Velasco!

Thank you.
 
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parochial boy
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« Reply #279 on: November 29, 2017, 11:36:57 am »

Just finished a first riund map of results by commune. It's too big-sized for uploading to my gallery, so I'll leave a link.

https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/chile-2017.png

Awesome, what is with the red area north of Santiago? Gazing at a map, there doesn't seem to be very much there

Is it down to a home region as Guillier is from La Serena? or something more to it?
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Velasco
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« Reply #280 on: November 29, 2017, 06:49:48 pm »

Just finished a first round map of results by commune. It's too big-sized for uploading to my gallery, so I'll leave a link.

https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/chile-2017.png

Awesome, what is with the red area north of Santiago? Gazing at a map, there doesn't seem to be very much there

Is it down to a home region as Guillier is from La Serena? or something more to it?

Thank you. Coquimbo region has been always a Concertación/Nueva Mayoría stronghold, especially the southern communes in the province of Choapa. Also, this red area in the map incorporates three communes located in the NE of Valparaíso region. There are important mine sites located there. Los Pelambres in the commune of Salamanca (Coquimbo) is one of the biggest copper mines in the world; a big vein is located in the communes of Cabildo and Petorca in Valparaíso region. This area is also located in the natural region known as Norte Chico. It has a semi-arid climate and there is agriculture in the valleys.

Even though Alejandro Guillier is from La Serena, his result there doesn't look very impressive. He got 27.1% in the Coquimbo region, which is a percentage 4.4% higher than his vote nationwide. However in La Serena his vote dropped to 22.9%, which is only 0.2% higher than average. His best results in this region were in the communes of Canela (52.8%) and Combarbalá (46%). Canela is located in the coast and it was the epicentre of the 2015 earthquake, as well it was the first place in Chile developing wind power and one of the five poorest communes in Chile. 

Possibly our Chilean posters could tell you more.
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jaichind
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« Reply #281 on: November 30, 2017, 09:06:36 am »

https://www.cooperativa.cl/noticias/pais/politica/presidenciales/encuesta-criteria-research-pinera-51-y-guillier-46-/2017-11-30/072637.html

Criteria Research Survey: Piñera 51% Guillier 46%
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« Reply #282 on: November 30, 2017, 02:56:13 pm »

It's getting close...

CADEM poll:

39.8% Piñera
37.3% Guillier
22.9% Undecided

Without undecided:

51.6% Piñera
48.4% Guillier

Poll conducted between 22 and 24 November. Polled 1,442 voters. MoE of 2.6%
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« Reply #283 on: November 30, 2017, 03:42:36 pm »

It's getting close... was always going to be close.


Fixed it for you. TBH, these polls are bad for Guilliar, since as I stated earlier, the electorate in first round was probably 54-56% left wing voters. If he ends up with 46-48% of the vote, that means quite a few voters are staying home.
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« Reply #284 on: December 01, 2017, 03:16:04 am »

Frente Amplio avoids giving an explicit endorsement to Alejandro Guiilier.

Candidate Beatriz Sánchez read a statement yesterday evening which reflects the formal and consensus position of the coalition. The statement reaffirms the "independence and autonomy" of the leftist block from "the other coalitions" in the context of a "new political cycle in Chile".

"We are not and we don't feel the owners of the persons' votes, thus our first call is to every one of our voters to reflect and express themselves at the polls in accordance to their beliefs and analyses."

"Because Chile is our concern, it's not the same for us who governs. We know that Sebastián Piñera represents a regression: more inequality, less rights and liberties (...)"

"Citizens need greater clarity from the Nueva Mayoría with regard to the suppression of the AFP (privately funded pension system), a quality public education without debt and profit, the democratization of the country through a Constituent Assembly and Tax Justice".

Beatriz Sánchez remarked that they don't want to negotiate offices nor a coalition government, as well that they are not granting freedom of action because they are not the owners of the votes. "We trust in people and their ability to decide".

Finally the Frente Amplio calls Alejandro Guillier to get rid of ambiguous positions on key issues (pension system, education, constitutional and tax reform)  in order to "search majorities among the Chilean citizens".

Later deputy Gabriel Boric (the leading figure of the FA alongside deputy Giorgio Jackson) remarked that they call not to vote Piñera, after senator Andrés Allamand said that the FA slammed the door to Guillier. Allamand, who was minister with Piñera, considers that the FA release is a "resounding political failure" for the candidate of the Nueva Mayoría reminder. On the opposite side, PS chairman Álvaro Elizalde said that he has no doubt that, after a reflection on what's at stake, a majority of those supporting Beatriz Sánchez in the first round will vote Guillier in the second round.

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Velasco
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« Reply #285 on: December 04, 2017, 01:11:38 am »

Parliamentary elections

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seb_pard
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« Reply #286 on: December 05, 2017, 06:05:41 am »

Beautiful maps!


Yesterday Beatriz Sanchez endorsed Guillier, after Piñera claimed about voting fraud (showing his lack of respect for our democracy).
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« Reply #287 on: December 05, 2017, 12:44:45 pm »

“O’Higgins” being associated with Chile always makes me do a double take.
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« Reply #288 on: December 05, 2017, 12:53:16 pm »

“O’Higgins” being associated with Chile always makes me do a double take.

When I was in Santiago the O'Higgins stop on the metro seemed odd until I learned who he was.
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« Reply #289 on: December 05, 2017, 05:59:15 pm »

“O’Higgins” being associated with Chile always makes me do a double take.
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Velasco
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« Reply #290 on: December 07, 2017, 12:54:08 am »

“O’Higgins” being associated with Chile always makes me do a double take.

Why not learning something about Chile before posting silly comments?

For instance:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernardo_O%27Higgins

Quote
Bernardo O'Higgins Riquelme; 1778–1842) was a Chilean independence leader who freed Chile from Spanish rule in the Chilean War of Independence. He was a wealthy landowner of Spanish and Irish ancestry.[1] Although he was the second Supreme Director of Chile (1817–1823), he is considered one of Chile's founding fathers, as he was the first holder of this title to head a fully independent Chilean state.

Bernardo O'Higgins, a member of the O'Higgins Family, was born in the Chilean city of Chillán in 1778, the illegitimate son of Ambrosio O'Higgins, 1st Marquis of Osorno,[2] a Spanish officer born in County Sligo, Ireland, who became governor of Chile and later viceroy of Peru. His mother was Isabel Riquelme, a prominent local;[2] the daughter of Don Simón Riquelme y Goycolea, a member of the Chillán Cabildo, or council.(...)

(More trivia: a certain Leopoldo O'Donnell was a prominent political figure in the XIX Century Spain).

The name of incumbent president Michelle Bachelet sounds suspiciously French.

Further examination might reveal you that many Chilean politicians have names that suggest European ancestry from countries that are not Spain. For instance, there is an abnormally high proportion of Croatian surnames -including FA deputy Gabriel Boric-. There is some FA deputy called "Jackson" because his father is English.

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« Reply #291 on: December 07, 2017, 01:01:49 am »

“O’Higgins” being associated with Chile always makes me do a double take.

Why not learning something about Chile before posting silly comments?


I know who Bernado O'Higgins is; please don't assume I'm an idiot. "Double take" implies I do know why he's associated with Chile, just that it's a surprising connection. "O'Higgins" is just so in-your-face Irish that it's kinda jarring, especially with no Hispanicization of his name.
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« Reply #292 on: December 17, 2017, 01:07:26 am »

These last weeks has been rough for me (too much work+studying for GMAT) but this is election day so I am gonna give me a break.

Results from New Zealand:

Guillier 89 (76%)
Piñera 28 (24%)

Invalid 4



First round:
Sánchez: 51
Guillier: 34
Piñera: 24
Kast: 13
Goic: 6
ME-O: 5
Artés: 4
Navarro: 0
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« Reply #293 on: December 17, 2017, 01:13:03 am »

Plus some updates from last week:

Guillier closed his campaign with an event with Jose Mujica (former president of Uruguay) and received some international endorsements (Pedro Sanchez and Jeremy Corbyn). Piñera received the endorsement of Macri and said that he received the endorsement from Patch Adams, but the celebrity said in he would never endorse Piñera and his policies, truly weird all that.

Piñera really got desperate during these last weeks, his campaign was a disaster compared to the first round. Guillier's wasn't stellar, but he closed in a good shape with Mujica.
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« Reply #294 on: December 17, 2017, 01:20:49 am »

Plus some updates from last week:

Guillier closed his campaign with an event with Jose Mujica (former president of Uruguay) and received some international endorsements (Pedro Sanchez and Jeremy Corbyn). Piñera received the endorsement of Macri and said that he received the endorsement from Patch Adams, but the celebrity said in he would never endorse Piñera and his policies, truly weird all that.

Piñera really got desperate during these last weeks, his campaign was a disaster compared to the first round. Guillier's wasn't stellar, but he closed in a good shape with Mujica.
I expected he was done after underperforming his polls by so much. Sounds like he's just not a very exciting guy and may lose by a pretty large margin. Macri must feel pretty alone as far as South American center right presidents go.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #295 on: December 17, 2017, 07:23:00 am »

Australia:

Guillier: 818 (65%)
Piñera: 444 (35%)


Invalid: 25
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seb_pard
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« Reply #296 on: December 17, 2017, 07:38:40 am »

Plus some updates from last week:

Guillier closed his campaign with an event with Jose Mujica (former president of Uruguay) and received some international endorsements (Pedro Sanchez and Jeremy Corbyn). Piñera received the endorsement of Macri and said that he received the endorsement from Patch Adams, but the celebrity said in he would never endorse Piñera and his policies, truly weird all that.

Piñera really got desperate during these last weeks, his campaign was a disaster compared to the first round. Guillier's wasn't stellar, but he closed in a good shape with Mujica.
I expected he was done after underperforming his polls by so much. Sounds like he's just not a very exciting guy and may lose by a pretty large margin. Macri must feel pretty alone as far as South American center right presidents go.
idk, I don't think that Piñera is an unexciting politician, he seems the only right-of-center politician capable of winning more than 50% of the chilean electorate, I really don't see any other politician capable of that. Guillier is the opposite, his campaign has lacked of anything exciting.

The problem I think is that the right overplayed their cards in this election, they are (also their electorate) desperate to defeat the government and stop the reforms and they though that the unpopularity of the Bachelet meant that the people supported that program, but actually the people who rejected the reforms as a whole was just a fraction (and seems not a big one) and the people got scared with the right being more vocal about their intentions.

And yes, Macri must feels alone, specially with PPK's  corruption scandal in Peru (interesting that it isn't a thread about this, because impeachment and new elections seems likely).

Link about Peru: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/15/world/americas/peru-president-odebrecht.html?_r=0
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« Reply #297 on: December 17, 2017, 08:33:15 am »

Any predictions on Final results/margins? My take during the first round was that if everyone that voted in the first round turned out to vote, then Guilliar would easily win. However, such a scenario was at the time hard to see happening due to the divisions in the left. The question is, has Guilliar perfectly unified the left vote, or will there be significant dropoff?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #298 on: December 17, 2017, 10:14:19 am »

My prediction:

51.32% Guillier
48.68% Piñera
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Octosteel
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« Reply #299 on: December 17, 2017, 10:41:27 am »

Plus some updates from last week:

Guillier closed his campaign with an event with Jose Mujica (former president of Uruguay) and received some international endorsements (Pedro Sanchez and Jeremy Corbyn). Piñera received the endorsement of Macri and said that he received the endorsement from Patch Adams, but the celebrity said in he would never endorse Piñera and his policies, truly weird all that.

Piñera really got desperate during these last weeks, his campaign was a disaster compared to the first round. Guillier's wasn't stellar, but he closed in a good shape with Mujica.
I expected he was done after underperforming his polls by so much. Sounds like he's just not a very exciting guy and may lose by a pretty large margin. Macri must feel pretty alone as far as South American center right presidents go.
idk, I don't think that Piñera is an unexciting politician, he seems the only right-of-center politician capable of winning more than 50% of the chilean electorate, I really don't see any other politician capable of that. Guillier is the opposite, his campaign has lacked of anything exciting.

The problem I think is that the right overplayed their cards in this election, they are (also their electorate) desperate to defeat the government and stop the reforms and they though that the unpopularity of the Bachelet meant that the people supported that program, but actually the people who rejected the reforms as a whole was just a fraction (and seems not a big one) and the people got scared with the right being more vocal about their intentions.

And yes, Macri must feels alone, specially with PPK's  corruption scandal in Peru (interesting that it isn't a thread about this, because impeachment and new elections seems likely).

Speaking of Peru, it kind of reminds me of the 1990 election where you also had the right getting a little overconfident and pressing an unpopular neoliberal reform package which led to an outsider who was ambiguously opposed to it winning the election to everyone's surprise which I strongly suspect may happen here. Of course, that outsider in Peru's name was Alberto Fujimori and he ended up doing those neoliberal reforms anyway as well as become a dictator so a bit of a wash.

That Peru situation is interesting though as you've got the Fujimorists and the left uniting to throw out PKK. I've heard from others that the first Vice President, Vizcarra, will likely decline the Presidency due to his association with the disaster of Chincheros Airport and the second VP Araoz would get it. What's the procedure for early elections? Does it happen if the president is removed or does the VP serve out the full term? And will be interesting to see how Keiko runs this time around since she can go "I told you so."
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