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| | |-+  Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)
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Author Topic: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)  (Read 26115 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #325 on: December 17, 2017, 04:39:39 pm »

Total Votes: from 693 counts

 SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE 42.966   50,86%   
 ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ   41.516   49,14%   

Votes from Chile: 612 Counts

 SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE 40.345   53,38%   
 ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ   35.233   46,62%   

If I can recall from the first round, the margins stayed the mainly the same throughout the count. if this holds true - Piñera wins.
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^The SWPA Lamb oddities are because Lamb is abandoning the 14th for the 17th

That feeling when you are called a Conservative in the Bay Area for just being a Center-Left Democrat.
I now have a Twitter for my maps: https://twitter.com/OryxMaps
Princeps Senatus Lumine
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« Reply #326 on: December 17, 2017, 04:41:34 pm »

Current Radio Bio Bio projection:

Piñera: 54,70%
Guillier: 45,30%
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #327 on: December 17, 2017, 04:43:54 pm »

Current Radio Bio Bio projection:

Piñera: 54,70%
Guillier: 45,30%

That isn't even close. If this ends up being the margin, how much did Left turnout drop? Perhaps the NM-BF split truly did put off BF voters from Guillier...
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^The SWPA Lamb oddities are because Lamb is abandoning the 14th for the 17th

That feeling when you are called a Conservative in the Bay Area for just being a Center-Left Democrat.
I now have a Twitter for my maps: https://twitter.com/OryxMaps
Princeps Senatus Lumine
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« Reply #328 on: December 17, 2017, 04:46:26 pm »

Current Radio Bio Bio projection:

Piñera: 54,70%
Guillier: 45,30%

That isn't even close. If this ends up being the margin, how much did Left turnout drop? Perhaps the NM-BF split truly did put off BF voters from Guillier...

It would have dropped by a LOT if that was the result, but then again, Piñera probably drew new voters as well, or voters who didn't vote in the first round to punish him or because they thought he was going to win anyway.

Go Piñera! We can win this!
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kelestian
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« Reply #329 on: December 17, 2017, 04:47:02 pm »

Go go Piñera!
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jaichind
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« Reply #330 on: December 17, 2017, 04:47:48 pm »

With over 560K votes counted in Chile Piñera is ahead 54-46 in Chile.  Go Piñera ..
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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« Reply #331 on: December 17, 2017, 04:49:58 pm »

This is painful to watch, specially Piñera doing good in popular communes.
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Octosteel
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« Reply #332 on: December 17, 2017, 04:50:29 pm »

Little surprised by this. I guess you can never overestimate the capability of the left to eat their own.
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Princeps Senatus Lumine
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« Reply #333 on: December 17, 2017, 04:51:52 pm »

Seems clear to me those who claimed Bachelet's reforms had turned popular made that call a bit too early...
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jaichind
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« Reply #334 on: December 17, 2017, 04:55:05 pm »

Guillier is doing reasonably well in Santiago where if that were the trend it would be neck-to-neck.  He has to hope that is a trend and that other results have a Piñera lean to them ..
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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« Reply #335 on: December 17, 2017, 04:55:43 pm »

With 25,96% of the vote:

SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE   889.179   54,03%   
ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ   756.385   45,97%
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #336 on: December 17, 2017, 04:56:51 pm »

Some quick backhand math says the vote might have dropped by 300K between the two rounds - though not all counts have the same number of voters so this is VERY ROUGH.
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^The SWPA Lamb oddities are because Lamb is abandoning the 14th for the 17th

That feeling when you are called a Conservative in the Bay Area for just being a Center-Left Democrat.
I now have a Twitter for my maps: https://twitter.com/OryxMaps
jaichind
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« Reply #337 on: December 17, 2017, 04:58:38 pm »

Even in Santiago it is now Piñera ahead 51.6 vs 48.4. 
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #338 on: December 17, 2017, 05:07:35 pm »

47% of counts.

SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE   1.674.238   54,29%   
ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ   1.409.547   45,71%   

This is over.
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^The SWPA Lamb oddities are because Lamb is abandoning the 14th for the 17th

That feeling when you are called a Conservative in the Bay Area for just being a Center-Left Democrat.
I now have a Twitter for my maps: https://twitter.com/OryxMaps
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #339 on: December 17, 2017, 05:13:06 pm »

Tvn just showed of the vote regionally - Piñera is largely doing better then one would expect in the north. The map seems to largely map the traditional polarization - extreme south and north-central for Left, Far north and South for Right - Except Piñera is barely winning the traditional Left-wing Mining states in the north. 
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^The SWPA Lamb oddities are because Lamb is abandoning the 14th for the 17th

That feeling when you are called a Conservative in the Bay Area for just being a Center-Left Democrat.
I now have a Twitter for my maps: https://twitter.com/OryxMaps
Simfan34
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« Reply #340 on: December 17, 2017, 05:14:23 pm »

Finally, a good election.
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The world is becoming globalized, but cosmopolitanism is being hijacked by the Davos Man. What choice is left besides nationalism? The thought is terrifying, to be honest.

I just hope Trump doesn't turn into some kind of Berlusconi-esque Teflon man.
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« Reply #341 on: December 17, 2017, 05:14:52 pm »

New Majority RIP 2013-2017
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #342 on: December 17, 2017, 05:17:42 pm »

TVN just called for Piñera.
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^The SWPA Lamb oddities are because Lamb is abandoning the 14th for the 17th

That feeling when you are called a Conservative in the Bay Area for just being a Center-Left Democrat.
I now have a Twitter for my maps: https://twitter.com/OryxMaps
Kamala
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« Reply #343 on: December 17, 2017, 05:21:48 pm »

Would Sanchez have done better?
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Octosteel
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« Reply #344 on: December 17, 2017, 05:22:03 pm »

New Majority RIP 2013-2017
Who knows. Pinera was also quite unpopular when he left office and now he's back. Maybe Bachelet and Pinera are doomed to fight and succeed each other forever
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jaichind
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« Reply #345 on: December 17, 2017, 05:57:46 pm »

Looks like the number of voters increased from the first round.  So it does not seems like marginal Sánchez not voting that gave  Piñera the victory.  It seems it is more about defections from Goic first round voters.    And even that does not seem to be enough to explain this large Piñera victory.  I guess there must have been defections from Sánchez and even perhaps Enríquez-Ominami first round voters, as hard it is to believe plus some marginal non-voters in the first round coming out to stop Guillier.
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #346 on: December 17, 2017, 06:04:49 pm »

Looks like the number of voters increased from the first round.  So it does not seems like marginal Sánchez not voting that gave  Piñera the victory.  It seems it is more about defections from Goic first round voters.    And even that does not seem to be enough to explain this large Piñera victory.  I guess there must have been defections from Sánchez and even perhaps Enríquez-Ominami first round voters, as hard it is to believe plus some marginal non-voters in the first round coming out to stop Guillier.

Yeah, my backhand calculations were way off - not all counts created equal and all that. There are only two explanations. One you offered above, that the centrists and some marginal leftists decided cast Piñera votes. This is obviously part of the story.

However, I think the main reason was that in the first round Piñera didn't really mobilize his base effectively.  Right-wing voters didn't turn up in the numbers they needed in the first round since it was obvious Piñera was going to win. When the results came in, and the election became close, this base became scared - and they turned out. So there was probably a few left-wing voters dropping off, however their votes are hidden because Piñera mobilized the right and outpreformed his first round turnout.
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^The SWPA Lamb oddities are because Lamb is abandoning the 14th for the 17th

That feeling when you are called a Conservative in the Bay Area for just being a Center-Left Democrat.
I now have a Twitter for my maps: https://twitter.com/OryxMaps
Octosteel
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« Reply #347 on: December 17, 2017, 06:07:39 pm »

After the elections earlier in the year in Ecuador where the left consolidated around their candidate to stop the right in the second round, I just expected that would be the norm and would occur again. It's probably unfair though to compare the outgoing administration of Correa who was reasonably popular to Bachelet who was anything but.
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« Reply #348 on: December 17, 2017, 06:17:27 pm »

So what is Pinera likely to do in office?
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #349 on: December 17, 2017, 06:32:15 pm »

This is so Alabama special Senate election

Pinera is doomed

(a little later)

PINERA LANDSLIDE!
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You shall not oppress a sojourner. You know the heart of a sojourner, for you were sojourners in the land of Egypt. (Exodus 23:9)
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