Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)

[Lumine]

So, it seems like Nueva Mayoria is in serious trouble for this election, but they should get their act back together by 2021, right?

Indeed, it is. The problem is that ever since we introduced voluntary vote instead of mandatory less and less people can be bothered to vote, which meant that the Municipal Elections couldn't be predicted (and few people bothered to do polling because it was pointless). In the end, it seems our political system might shift from who is more acceptable to a larger part of the electorate to who can drive more people to the polls, which might mean doubling down on an electoral base rather than trying to increase the appeal. Nueva Mayoria is divided and shellshocked, but it can certainly still win. It's just that it changed from being sure that they would win in the end to a great deal of uncertainity.

Piñera, after all, is no unbeatable juggernaut, and also brings up a lot of rejection.

As to 2021... no one, and I mean no one, can say. Chilean politics are very unpredictable in the long term given the amount of personalism involved. When the old Concertacion lost power to Piñera in 2010 it entered a panic through 2010 to 2011, appearing to be lost and without a clear course as Piñera soared on the polls. But the student movement and Piñera's popularity collapse opened a clear road to power, and the Concertacion took it, unpredictably (from a 2010 point of view) branding itself as the Nueva Mayoria, taking a sharp turn to the left in discourse (not so much on policies) and resuscitating Bachelet as the electoral machine that would return them to victory. And sure enough, the gamble worked. Bolstered by the student and citizen movement they crushed the right-wing in the 2012 Municipals, and obliterated them again in 2013 with Matthei being vanquished and parliament going solid left.

Indeed, as late as 2014-2015 it seemed Nueva Mayoria was set for long term dominance despite their issues as the Chilean right was disintegrating. And they threw it all away. So you have an entire wing led by the Christian Democrats saying "let's turn back to the Concertacion and to the center", and a whole other wing saying "no, we need to turn to the left and deepen the reforms". Add to that the fact that the far-left and the student movement is turning into a real third political force... and you have an unpredictable situation for the left.

[FredLindq]

How long can the DC stand sitting in same boat as the PC?!

[Lumine]

How long can the DC stand sitting in same boat as the PC?!

Hard to say. Both parties loathe each other and disagree on most of the issues, yet both see it as indispensable to keep close to the largest left or center-left coalition because of the previous electoral system, under which PC never got far by running alone and DC always had a major influence on each government. The PC is hesitant to abandon the power they've achieved by being part of the government, and DC is not interested in the wilderness or the right (much as I dream of the Christian Democrats "going home", so to speak). I'd like to think DC will finally say enough is enough, but both DC and PC have a bit of a reputation of being opportunistic.

We have a new candidate as well, just announced on an interview:

Grand Master Luis Riveros (Ind, close to PRSD): Former Rector of the Universidad de Chile and the Grand Master of the Grand Lodge of Chile, Riveros is a well regarded academic and economist, with the intention to run what he described as a "citizen candidacy". As the top leader of the Chilean freemasons, Riveros wields considerable influence within PRSD (which has always been the party of freemasonry) and is a critic of presidential hopeful Alejandro Guiller. Presumably Riveros wouldn't run in a hypothetic Nueva Mayoria primary as he is a supporter of the old Concertacion but has been highly critical of the current coalition, but I'm at a loss to make predictions.

[Lumine]

• Senator Isabel Allende (PS), the daugther of former President Salvador Allende has suddenly announced her decision to drop out of the upcoming presidential race, providing no main reason but stressing the need to keep the PS united and thanking supporters for their aid during the past months. With Allende's decision not to run the road seems clear for a Lagos or Insulza endorsement from PS, unless Fernando Atria were to unexpectedly pick up steam from the left-wing of the party.

This leaves the current field as:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Deputy Jorge Tarud (PPD) - Announced
Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced

Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD) - "Willing to run"
Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - "Willing to run"
Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - "Willing to run"
Senator Ignacio Walker (DC) - "Willing to run"

Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Speculative
Former Minister Jorge Burgos (DC) - Speculative
Mayor Daniel Jadue (PC) - Speculative
Deputy and Party Chairman Guillermo Teillier (PC) - Speculative

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced, 35.000 signatures in hand
Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, gathering signatures
Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Announced
Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN) - Announced
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) - Announced

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March
Former Mayor Francisco de la Maza (UDI) - Speculative
Deputy Jaime Bellolio (UDI) - Speculative

PRO

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud)

Unknown

Frente Amplio?

Activist Luis Mesina (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Independent, Other:

Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) - Announced
Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Speculative

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, October 31st:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/69%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 24%, Guiller 10%, Lagos 8%, Ominami 3%, Ossandon 3%, Farkas 2%, Allende 1%, Others 7%, Undecided 42%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 42%, Lagos 11%, Guiller 6%, Ossandon 3%, Farkas 1%, Ominami 1%, Allende 1%, Other/None 33%

Municipals:

Which candidate was bolstered by the municipals: Piñera 55%, Guiller 7%, Ossandon 4%, Lagos 4%, Ominami 2%, Allende 1%, Insulza 1%

Which candidate was damaged by the municipals: Lagos 35%, Ominami 26%, Allende 7%, Piñera 3%, Ossandon 2%, Guiller 2%, Insulza 1%

Political Party more aided by the results: UDI 25%, RN 21%, DC 3%, PPD 3%, PS 2%, PRO 2%, EVOPOLI 1%, PRI 1%, PRSD 1%, PC 1%, RD 1%

Political Party more hurt by the results: DC 18%, PPD 12%, PS 10%, PC 6%, PRO 6%, UDI 5%, RN 3%, EVOPOLI 2%, PRI 1%, PRSD 1%, RD 1%

Biggest responsible for the Nueva Mayoria defeat: Bachelet 19%, Nueva Mayoria parties 18%, both 58%

Should there be a cabinet reshuffle: Yes 66%, No 28%

[Lumine]

November 1st:

The fall-out over Senator Allende's unexpected departure from the presidential race so early continues to hit the PS, with observers citing Lagos as the force who drove Allende (willingly or not) out of the race and accelerated the process. Lagos's most likely rival in PS, his former Interior Minister Jose Miguel Insulza (nicknamed the Panzer) is facing a lot of pressure currently to announce or drop out, the new timing placing serious strain on his possible bid for the presidency. Indeed, it seems Lagos is skillfully eliminating his rivals one by one by virtue of being more resilient, having eliminated Allende from the picture and being close to forcing Insulza out.

With Fernando Atria (PS) and Deputy Jorge Tarud not having a chance in hell of becoming nominees of the coalition (although they might get to the primaries), all eyes are set on Insulza on whether he'll force a PS primary, and particularly on Senator Alejandro Guiller as the only rival with enough popular support to defeat Lagos in a primary (and defeat Piñera as well on the presidential). Guiller, on the other hand, seems hesitant to make a decision so early, wasting time as Lagos exploits his influence to garner more institutional support from the Nueva Mayoria parties.

We're a week from the Municipals, and the Presidential race has accelerated like no other before.

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Adimark, November 3rd:

Bachelet Approval: 24%/71%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 20%, Guiller 15%, Lagos 5%, Ominami 5%, Ossandon 4%, Allende 2%, Kast (Evopoli) 1%, Insulza 1%, Others 10%, Undecided 37%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 37%, Lagos 14%, Guiller 8%, Allende 4%, Ominami 1%, Ossandon 1%, Insulza 1%, Other 35%

General:

Who do you identify more with: Government 30%, Opposition 35%, Neither 35%

Approval of Nueva Mayoria: 15%/77%

Approval of Chile Vamos: 17%/74%

Trust in Politicians:

Alejandro Guiller: 45%/28%
Sebastian Piñera: 35%/45%
Manuel Jose Ossandon: 26%/49%
Jose Miguel Insulza: 26%/51%
Carolina Goic:25%/46%
Isabel Allende: 23%/54%
Andres Velasco: 22%/52%
Francisco de la Maza: 21%/51%
Ricardo Lagos Escobar: 20%/66%
Alberto Espina: 16%/68%
Marco Enriquez-Ominami: 13%/71%

[Lumine]

November 1st-November 7th:

• After a substantial amount of negotiations and informal talks Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind, ex RN) has decided to contest the Chile Vamos primary, ending talk of his campaign going to the first round and splitting the right-wing vote. This announcement was followed by Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) who also formalized his intent to campaign for the primary. With RN and UDI still unsure on candidates, there is speculation Piñera might have to announce earlier, although he insists he'll decide on March.
• Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) stalls for time as he is pressed into a decision, announcing that his formal decision on a presidential round has to wait until the PS Congress on November 26th, where the formal mechanism to select the PS candidate is to be selected. Insulza is believed to be pushing for primaries, which he seeks to contest alongside Fernando Atria and possibly former President Lagos, who holds dual PPD-PS membership.
• As the Chile Vamos Primary takes form and is now a certainity, Senator Alejandro Guiller (Ind, PRSD) has announced his preference for a presidential primary in Nueva Mayoria, challenging former President Lagos to take part in them. Guiller's stock continues to rise as his poll ratings improve and show him as a potential contender to defeat Piñera (while Lagos remains behind).
• Another strike was held on November 4th to protest against the pension system led by the "No +APF's" Movement, which has been gaining ground over the past few months and made a signficant impact in public debate. It's leader, activist Luis Mesina, is seen by some as a potential candidate for office in the 2017 Elections.

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, November 7th:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/70%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 28%, Guiller 14%, Lagos 6%, Ossandon 3%, Ominami 2%, Farkas 2%, Allende 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 38%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 46%, Guiller 10%, Lagos 8%, Ossandon 2%, Farkas 1%, Ominami 1%, Allende 1% Other/None 29%

Plaza Publica Cadem, November 14th:

Bachelet Approval: 20%/71%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 27%, Guiller 17%, Lagos 5%, Ossandon 3%, Ominami 2%, Farkas 2%, Kast (EVOPOLI) 1%, Others 5%, Undecided 38%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 45%, Guiller 16%, Lagos 7%, Ossandon 2%, Farkas 2%, Kast (EVOPOLI) 1%, Other/None 25%

[Lumine]

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Deputy Jorge Tarud (PPD) - Announced
Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced
Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced

Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD) - "Willing to run"
Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - "Willing to run"
Senator Ignacio Walker (DC) - "Willing to run"

Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Speculative
Former Minister Jorge Burgos (DC) – Speculative
Former Governor Francisco Huenchumilla (DC) - Speculative
Mayor Daniel Jadue (PC) - Speculative
Deputy and Party Chairman Guillermo Teillier (PC) - Speculative

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced
Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Announced
Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN) - Announced
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced
Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, gathering signatures

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March
Deputy Jaime Bellolio (UDI) - Speculative
Former Mayor Francisco de la Maza (UDI) - Speculative

PRO

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud)

Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative

Frente Amplio?

Activist Luis Mesina (IND) - Speculative
Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative
Union Leader Cristian Cuevas (IND) - Speculative
Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Independent, Other:

Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced
Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) - Announced
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced
Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Speculative

[Lumine]

November 7th-November 21st:

Chile Vamos Primary:

• Former President Piñera suffered a heavy blow as a scandal developed, revealing a company of his had acquired shares from Peruvian fishing companies in the middle of The Hague's decision pertaining the Chile-Peru maritime dispute. Piñera claims not knowing at the time and Chile Vamos (except Ossandon) defend him, whereas the left is trying to shoot to kill. 59% don't believe Piñera, so he'll probably take a huge hit.
• Felipe Kast (EVOPOLI) and Manuel Jose Ossandon (IND) fully assume their roles as the challengers to Piñera, starting to actively campaign across the country in search for votes. Ossandon has targeted the vote of Chileans living outside the country and taken a very conservative profile on social issues, whereas Kast appears as the champion of the liberal right.
• Chile Vamos parties are expected to make their definitions in the next weeks and months. Evopoli is behind Kast and the Partido Regionalista Independiente (PRI) is in the tank for Piñera, meaning that the largest parties (RN and UDI) will be forced to make a decision sooner rather than later.

Nueva Mayoria Primary:

• Former President Lagos continues to draw open fire from the left, his presidential campaign finding serious obstacles on his attempt to stage a comeback. Guiller continues his meteoric rise as the anti-Lagos candidate and the seemingly most electable choice, but remains coy about whether he'll run or not.
• The Encuentro Nacional de lzquierda Socialista (a group of the left-wing of the PS) formally proclaimed Fernando Atria as a presidential candidate, making a PS primary more or less inevitable. It is expected Atria and Lagos will contest the primary for the party's endorsement, which will be absolutely key. Atria is also in talks with the student movement, and the potential "Frente Amplio" of the left.
• High tensions continue in the Government after Bachelet did only a minor cabinet reshuffle of three ministers, stating her full confidence on the more important ministers (which have been heavily criticized from the Nueva Mayoria parties). PR and DC remain critical of the Government itself, and the Communists have clashed with the Government over pay raises to the public sector. A break-up of a party from the coalition is not impossible.

Others:

• The Partido Ecologista and Partido Poder Ciudadano signed a pact to contest the Parliamentary elections next year jointly, and left the option for a joint presidential candidate open. Both parties scored almost 2% in the Municipal Election, winning 2 Mayors and 14 Counciliors.
• Known Academic Carola Canelo, known for her harsh comments on several political figures early this year, has launched an independent bid for the Presidency and started gathering signatures. Canelo describes herself as a citizen candidate (and leans heavily to the left), and was one of the key figures in the impeachment of Education Minister Harald Beyer during the Piñera Administration.
• The center-liberal coalition Sentido Futuro is going through a complicated phase, as their leaders Andres Velasco (Ciudadanos) and Lily Perez (Amplitud) eye runs for the Senate instead of the Presidential race. Little-known lawyer Sebastian Sichel has been raised as the Ciudadanos candidate, amidst fears Amplitud could end up backing Piñera at their convention next week.
• The long awaited Frente Amplio for the left begins to take form as former student movement leaders join forces. At least 10-12 political parties from the left (all small) are prepared to join a coalition, hold presidential primaries and contest a common parliamentary list, hoping to capitalize on a good performance at the municipal election. Tentative names current put forward for the presidential are activist Luis Mesina or union leader Cristian Cuevas. The Frente Amplio is also trying to temp the PC to join its coalition and leave Nueva Mayoria.

[Lumine]

The scrambling gets more intense as December is near, and two new candidates jump into the fray:

• Renovación Nacional (RN) is set to have its own national convention soon after completing their internal elections, expected to end with the reelection of the current leadership. With Senator Alberto Espina and Senator Francisco Chahuan's pre-campaigns not having gone particularly well, rumour has it both Espina and Chahuan will drop soon, with RN being forced into a vote in January to choose between Piñera and Ossandon.

• After (surprisingly) not been invited to join the cabinet, former Interior Minister Jose Miguel Insulza has resigned his diplomatic position in order to focus on his presidential campaign, thought to be close to an end a few days ago. Insulza is expected to contest a PS primary against Fernando Atria now, possibly with Lagos in the mix.

• Two former candidates from the 2013 jump into the ring again: Marcel Claude, the polemic hard-left candidate who got between 2-3%, and Tomás Jocelyn Holt, famous for being the candidate with the lowest share of the vote since democracy returned (0,38%). Claude intends to contest a "citizens primary" with other leftist candidates, whereas Jocelyn-Holt aims for the impossible and wishes to gather enough signatures to go the first round again.

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, November 21st:

Bachelet Approval: 19%/72%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 27%, Guiller 16%, Lagos 5%, Ossandon 3%, Ominami 2%, Farkas 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 41%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 43%, Guiller 15%, Lagos 8%, Ossandon 3%, Other/None 31%

Piñera Bancard Scandal:

Did you know of the scandal: Yes 57%, No 36%, No Answer 7%

Do you believe Piñera didn't know about the investment on a Peruvian fishing company: Yes 59%, No 39%, No Answer 2%

Do you believe Piñera's government did everything it could to defend Chilean interests during the maritime dispute: Yes 48%, No 43%, No Answer 9%

Do you think this is part of a "dirty campaign" against Piñera: Yes 58%, No 33%, No Answer 9%

Would you say Piñera's explanations have been enough: Yes 20%, No 66%, No Answer 14%

Was Piñera's govermnent good for Chile: Good 50%, Bad 29%, Neither 19%, No Answer 2%

[Lumine]

November 22nd-November 2th:

Chile Vamos Primary:

• Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (IND) makes the news with a series of campaign pledges regarding "making prisoners work". Reception seems to have been mostly positive, although Ossandon continues to take flak from the liberal center-right due to his conservative stances.

Nueva Mayoria Primary:

• Former Interior Minister and "old guard" figure Jose Miguel Insulza starts his presidential campaign with a strong effort, capitalizing on the stagnation of the Lagos campaign and his inability to take a strong position after two-three months of campaign. Insulza and Atria managed to secure internal primaries for the PS to choose it's candidate, probably to be held in April. Lagos is facing a complicated scenario in both PS and PPD, thought to be his electoral  base, in no small part for his ongoing and scathing criticism of Bachelet's first term.
• The radicals (PRSD) have set their national convention for January 2017, and openly declared that they will proclaim Senator Guiller as their presidential candidate for the Nueva Mayoria Primaries. With the primaries set to be held on July 2017, Guiller has cemented himself on the strongest position, ahead of Lagos-Insulza and the lesser known Atria and Tarud.

Others:

• The newly formed far-left Partido Pais held its convention in Concepcion this week, asking Senator Alejandro Navarro (strong supporter of Evo Morales and the Venezuelan government) to take up a presidential candidate to the potential primaries of the Frente Amplio. Similarly, sociologist Carlos Ruiz (linked to several student movements) has also been raised as another possible candidate.
• Amidst concerns of possible support for Piñera Amplitud (splinter party from RN) held its convention as well, deciding to field a candidate of their own for a primary inside the Sentido Futuro centrist coalition. However, there doesn't seem to be any obvious or natural candidates not even for the party, but for the entire coalition now that Velasco and Lily Perez seek to run for Senate.

[Lumine]

Haven't updated this in a while, and the field has taken a bit more form:

November 27th-January 12th:

Chile Vamos Primary:

• Ossandon and Kast continue to tour the country, although current polling shows them far behind Piñera (usually 20-25% for Piñera, 1 to 2% for the others). PRI has endorsed Piñera although he is not an official candidate yet, which leaves the two largest parties in the coalition (RN and UDI, the historical right) to make their decision. UDI appears split on whether to launch their own candidate (lacking names), whereas RN is to proclaim its candidate in two more weeks, speculation set on Espina and Chahuan dropping their helpless bids and the party endorsing Piñera or Ossandon. So Piñera continues to run away with this one, although some dream of a primary upset in which Ossandon defeats him.

Nueva Mayoria Primary:

• Surprise, suprise, Independent Senator Alejandro Guillier is the man of the hour. Despite not showing up on the political radar six months ago he is now the frontrunner for the Nueva Mayoria primary, and is seen by many as the one man who can beat Piñera and spare Nueva Mayoria an electoral collapse. On the other hand, Guillier is known for a cautious style and for saying little of substance, which means his political capital and skills are still to be tested.
• Guillier's supporters spread like wildfire across the Nueva Mayoria parties, with the Partido Radical proclaiming him as their nominee. He also has many adepts in the Partido Comunista, Partido Socialista, Democracia Cristiana and PPD, although it's not likely he'll be formally nominated by those.
• Former President Lagos struggles to rise in the polls as his bid looks in serious trouble, although he is expected to be nominated by PPD this week in a move that will end up the quixotic campaign of Jorge Tarud. He is deploying his troops to try and get the key PS nomination, but it appears he'll be locked in a three-way struggle with Insulza and Atria.
• The Christian Democrats face a crossroads regarding the future, with many believing the proposal for the party to field a first-round candidate and go alone on a parliamentarian list to be electoral suicide. There is a belief that without a candidate they'll lose clout and grown even weaker, but there's few competitive choices. There remains a possibility for recent reelected DC Chairman Senator Carolina Goic to be proclaimed at the end of the month, though, as she appears to be the strongest card they have.

Others:

• Once the young politician of the future, Marco Enriquez-Ominami sinks like a rock. The Nueva Mayoria is refusing all contacts with him, and the Frente Amplio has refused to admit PRO in their coalition and Ominami on their primaries on account of his electoral financing scandal, this amidst mass resignations in the PRO. At this stage, Ominami's third presidential bid (now polling at a mere 1%) is expected to implode soon.
• Sentido Futuro also faces a crisis after poor results in the municipal election, the refusal of two of their current deputies to run for reelection, and more importantly, the decision by their strongest candidates (Andres Velasco and Lily Perez) to run for Senate and not for President. With no one but the unknown Sebastian Sichel as a possible candidate, the coalition is also in serious trouble.
• While a slow process, the long awaited Frente Amplio of the left has taken form by including several parties and movements, although several remain away from the coalition. It goes from the far, far left to the liberal progressive Partido Liberal, and it will hold primaries in order to select their own candidate to surpass Nueva Mayoria (basically, they're aiming to be a Podemos with Nueva Mayoria as the PSOE). The field is in formation, but Senator Alejandro Navarro will run, and there's many claiming for activist (and for me, professional snake oil salesman) Luis Mesina to run as well.
• With several independents struggling for traction an unexpected name has joined the race in the mold of populists such as Franco Parisi. This candidate is TV personality Nicolas Larrain, running on an odd "centrist" and populist platform (support for protectionism included) with the citizen-centrist-crossover party "Todos".

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Deputy Jorge Tarud (PPD) - Announced
Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced
Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced
Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD-PS) - Announced
Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced

Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Speculative

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced
Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Announced
Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN) - Announced
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March
Deputy Jaime Bellolio (UDI) - Speculative
Former Mayor Francisco de la Maza (UDI) - Speculative

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced

Todos:

TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud)

Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative

Frente Amplio:
(RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, Pais, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others)

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced
Activist Luis Mesina (IND) - Speculative
Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative
Union Leader Cristian Cuevas (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Independent, Other:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, gathering signatures
Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Announced, gathering signatures
Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced
Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Speculative

[Lumine]

The center-left social democrat PPD (Partido por la Democracia) chose Ricardo Lagos as its nominee at their convention yesterday, with an internal vote by the party councilors giving Lagos 158 votes (92%) against quixotic candidate Jorge Tarud's 13 and 15 spoilt votes. Lagos's campaign is giving a substantial boost, and lives to fight another day by becoming a serious contender inside the Partido Socialista (which is strongly considering allowing Guillier and Lagos to participate in their candidate selection process alongside Atria and Insulza). Renovacion Nacional (RN) also held its national convention with scathing criticism of Nueva Mayoria and Alejandro Guillier, choosing to suspend choosing a nominee until March (where Piñera is set to formalize his intentions).

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, January 9th:

Bachelet Approval: 21%/66%

Support for Bachelet's Reforms:

Tax Reform: 24%/56%
Educational Reform: 31%/60%
Labour Reform: 25%/56%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 18%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 3%, Ominami 2%, Parisi 2%, Farkas 1%, Insulza 1%, Others 4%, Undecided 44%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 37%, Guiller 24%, Lagos 5%, Ossandon 2%, Other/None 32%

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, January 16th:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/66%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 2%, Ominami 1%, Parisi 1%, Farkas 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 41%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 40%, Guiller 28%, Lagos 4%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 27%

Piñera/Guillier round:

Men: 24/23
Women: 22/23

Young (18-34): 27/18
Adult (35-54): 23/23
Old (55-): 20/32

Upper Class: 32/26
Middle Class: 22/26
Lower Class: 19/21

Santiago: 22/26
Regions: 24/22

Catholic: 23/26
Evangelic/Protestant: 30/20
Atheist/Agnostic: 20/21

In General:

• A small crisis erupts in the new Frente Amplio as Gabriel Boric and others issue a veto on Senator Alejandro Navarro (a former Bachelet and Nueva Mayoria supporter) to run on the Frente Amplio primaries, leading Navarro's Partido Pais to suspend its participation on the new coalition. Around the same time, activist Luis Mesina confirms he will not run for President, eliminating two of the likely nominees for the new leftist coalition.
• Tensions rise in Chile Vamos as Evopoli and Felipe Kast promote their new government program of 130 measures, which has come under flak by RN, UDI and PRI for being overtly liberal on several issues (including gay marriage). The negotiations for the parliamentary elections also raise potential conflicts, as PRI and Evopoli demand an equal share of candidates and RN and UDI believe they deserve more candidates due to their larger results.
• Feeling himself on a strong position after gaining the PPD nomination, Former President Lagos announces that he will not take part of a primary in the Partido Socialista (PS). In response, the PS appears now determined to hold primaries in April to choose a nominee for the Nueva Mayoria primaries in July, a battle between Fernando Atria and Jose Miguel Insulza which sees many in the PS dreaming of Guillier after sensing his electoral appeal.
• And the number of independent candidates rises, as 2013 candidate Franco Parisi is offered to run for President by the centrist-regionalist party Democracia Regional Patagonica, signaling a comeback for the candidate after scoring more than 10% in the last election and, at one point, being feared by the Chilean right as a candidate who could have ended up in the second round.

[RodPresident]

Y

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, January 16th:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/66%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 2%, Ominami 1%, Parisi 1%, Farkas 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 41%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 40%, Guiller 28%, Lagos 4%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 27%

Piñera/Guillier round:

Men: 24/23
Women: 22/23

Young (18-34): 27/18
Adult (35-54): 23/23
Old (55-): 20/32

Upper Class: 32/26
Middle Class: 22/26
Lower Class: 19/21

Santiago: 22/26
Regions: 24/22

Catholic: 23/26
Evangelic/Protestant: 30/20
Atheist/Agnostic: 20/21

In General:

• A small crisis erupts in the new Frente Amplio as Gabriel Boric and others issue a veto on Senator Alejandro Navarro (a former Bachelet and Nueva Mayoria supporter) to run on the Frente Amplio primaries, leading Navarro's Partido Pais to suspend its participation on the new coalition. Around the same time, activist Luis Mesina confirms he will not run for President, eliminating two of the likely nominees for the new leftist coalition.
• Tensions rise in Chile Vamos as Evopoli and Felipe Kast promote their new government program of 130 measures, which has come under flak by RN, UDI and PRI for being overtly liberal on several issues (including gay marriage). The negotiations for the parliamentary elections also raise potential conflicts, as PRI and Evopoli demand an equal share of candidates and RN and UDI believe they deserve more candidates due to their larger results.
• Feeling himself on a strong position after gaining the PPD nomination, Former President Lagos announces that he will not take part of a primary in the Partido Socialista (PS). In response, the PS appears now determined to hold primaries in April to choose a nominee for the Nueva Mayoria primaries in July, a battle between Fernando Atria and Jose Miguel Insulza which sees many in the PS dreaming of Guillier after sensing his electoral appeal.
• And the number of independent candidates rises, as 2013 candidate Franco Parisi is offered to run for President by the centrist-regionalist party Democracia Regional Patagonica, signaling a comeback for the candidate after scoring more than 10% in the last election and, at one point, being feared by the Chilean right as a candidate who could have ended up in the second round.

Youth that didn't know Pinochet's regime is more Piñeira supporting than Guillier. Are they waiting for a more left-wing candidate or they're more conservative than their parents?

[Lumine]

Youth that didn't know Pinochet's regime is more Piñeira supporting than Guillier. Are they waiting for a more left-wing candidate or they're more conservative than their parents?

To be fair, Pinochet is not really that much of a factor anymore (outside of the hard-left and the hard-right, which can't quite stop bringing Allende and Pinochet to every debate), and Piñera did vote No in 1988 and has been attacked from his right-flank for being too critical of Pinochet.

It's more or less easy to explain by Guillier appears so strong with old voters since the pension system rose as one of the major issues in 2016, many attacking the current system as being unfair. In that sense, there's a probable belief among many of those voters that Guillier would indeed get rid of it and replace it (although that's a simplistic explanation).

How to read Piñera's lead with the youth is harder, it was a shock to me. If I had to pick an explanation it would probably be the economy, usually the flagship of Piñera's legacy and one of the areas in which he looks the more appealing compared to Nueva Mayoria. It could also be dissatisfaction with the government affecting Guillier (and of course, Lagos) by proxy.

But what I would hesitate to do is read it as waiting for a more-left wing candidate (since the polls are not including the Frente Amplio given that they don't have a clear candidate) or as being more or less conservative leaning, it should be noted the vast majority of the voters now refuse to identify with the left, center and right.

[Intell]

Guillier the left-wing candidate is most supported by the middle class? Who do the different classes generally vote?

[Lumine]

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So far, it seems to be the case, although there's disagreement of how to read that exactly. Guillier's main characteristic is that he's been turned into some sort of an electoral machine that appeals to the voters without actually having taken strong stances on the issues. There's a narrative behind him (that is, that he can take the Bachelet reforms and make them work and that he is an outsider against the establishment) which I suppose appeals to many in the middle-class, but I wonder how will his support change once he's forced to take more firm stances, and once the field is consolidated.

On the other hand, beyond saying Guillier is center-left and probably a social democrat it's also hard to pin him in terms of ideology and thinking, and the Frente Amplio does find the idea of Guillier being a champion of the left laughable (even they attack him for a lack of substance). It might be my own bias, but I think Guillier is at a moment in which he represents views or stances that might end up being contradictory.

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It's hard to say, as it depends on the areas of the country. Generally speaking the upper class does gravitate towards the right-wing and the lower class towards the left, but there's still a strong left vote in some higher income areas and the right does hold significant strength in some of the poorer areas of the country (something particularly exploited by UDI, which benefited from holding most of the Mayors under Pinochet and did its best to locally appeal to those voters). The middle-class tends to be the battleground which crowns the winner, but it is fragmented on who to support.

There was a time in the 1940's and 1950's in which the Partido Radical was almost by definition the party of the middle class, and something similar took place under the reign of the Democracia Cristiana in the 1960's, but with political parties so fragmented, it would be hard to describe the middle class as strongly for one side. It should be noted though that polls tend to reveal more people identifying with the center-left and the left than the center-right or the right, and the right-wing only tends to win when they are able to mobilize independents behind them.

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, January 23rd:

Bachelet Approval: 24%/65%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 4%, Ossandon 2%, Farkas 2%, Parisi 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 40%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 40%, Guiller 25%, Lagos 5%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 29%

Chile Vamos Primary:
(among center-right, right voters)

Piñera 68%, Ossandon 10%, F. Kast 9%, Espina 3%, Chahuan 2%, Undecided 8%

Nueva Mayoria Primary:
(among center-left, left voters)

Guillier 61%, Lagos 16%, Insulza 7%, Goic 4%, Atria 3%, Undecided 9%

Candidate Attributes:

Who has more authority and leadership? - Piñera 41%, Guillier 19%, Lagos 16%, Ossandon 5%, Undecided 19%
Who is better prepared to be President? - Piñera 40%, Guillier 23%, Lagos 13%, Ossandon 6%, Undecided 18%
Who is more capable of solving the country's problems? - Piñera 38%, Guillier 24%, Lagos 10%, Ossandon 7%, Undecided 21%
Who is more trustworthy? - Piñera 33%, Guillier 34%, Lagos 6%, Ossandon 8%, Undecided 19%
Who delivers more on his promises? - Piñera 32%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 6%, Ossandon 8%, Undecided 32%
Who knows better the needs of the public? - Piñera 25%, Guillier 31%, Lagos 8%, Ossandon 10%, Undecided 26%
Who is closer to the public? -  Piñera 25%, Guillier 40%, Lagos 6%, Ossandon 12%, Undecided 17%

In General:

• A major crisis takes place nationwide as dozens of forest fires suddenly erupt across several regions, in a scale never seen before. Hundreds have lost their homes as several forests burn and many farming areas disappear in flames, the smoke covering most of the central cities. There's been widespread criticism of what is percieved to be a lack of competence from Bachelet's government in dealing with the crisis, and the Government defends itself by arguing there was no way to predict the scale of the disaster.
• The Partido Radical holds a nationwide plebiscite to ratify Senator Guillier's as the party's nominee, ratifying his candidacy with 99,9% of the vote and some 11,000 votes cast.
• Chile Vamos is still locked in a bitter struggle over the parliamentary candidates, with UDI Chairman Jacqueline van Rysselberghe insisting Evopoli and PRI can't have the same number of candidates each than UDI, and RN trying to mediate as talk grows of two separate parliamentary lists (which would hurt Evopoli and PRI badly).
• The Frente Amplio is now a reality as more than a dozen political parties and movements confirm its participation. With potential candidates like Senator Alejandro Navarro, journalist Beatriz Sanchez and activist Luis Mesina discarded, the Frente Amplio will begin to search for primary candidates soon.

[Lumine]

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced
Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced
Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD-PS) - Announced
Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced

Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Speculative

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March
Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Will decide in March
Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN) - Will decide in March

Deputy Jaime Bellolio (UDI) - Speculative
Former Mayor Francisco de la Maza (UDI) - Speculative

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced

Todos:

TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures

Pais:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud + Red Liberal)

Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative

Frente Amplio:
(RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others)

Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative
Union Leader Cristian Cuevas (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Independent, Other:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, gathering signatures
Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Announced, gathering signatures
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures with DRP support

Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced

Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative

[Simfan34]

Piñera is making a comeback? There's an unusual bright spot.

[seb_pard]

Piñera is making a comeback? There's an unusual bright spot.

He always has been the candidate with the higher chances to win this year since 2014, due to a mix of unpopularity of the current government and the fact that he is the only politician of Chile Vamos with a chance of winning the general election (although a significant part of his the coalition hate him).

In any case, I think his chances of being elected are falling due to the rise of Guillier, and I believe we are gonna see a competitive election in November.