Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)

[seb_pard]

Y

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, January 16th:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/66%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 2%, Ominami 1%, Parisi 1%, Farkas 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 41%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 40%, Guiller 28%, Lagos 4%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 27%

Piñera/Guillier round:

Men: 24/23
Women: 22/23

Young (18-34): 27/18
Adult (35-54): 23/23
Old (55-): 20/32

Upper Class: 32/26
Middle Class: 22/26
Lower Class: 19/21

Santiago: 22/26
Regions: 24/22

Catholic: 23/26
Evangelic/Protestant: 30/20
Atheist/Agnostic: 20/21

In General:

• A small crisis erupts in the new Frente Amplio as Gabriel Boric and others issue a veto on Senator Alejandro Navarro (a former Bachelet and Nueva Mayoria supporter) to run on the Frente Amplio primaries, leading Navarro's Partido Pais to suspend its participation on the new coalition. Around the same time, activist Luis Mesina confirms he will not run for President, eliminating two of the likely nominees for the new leftist coalition.
• Tensions rise in Chile Vamos as Evopoli and Felipe Kast promote their new government program of 130 measures, which has come under flak by RN, UDI and PRI for being overtly liberal on several issues (including gay marriage). The negotiations for the parliamentary elections also raise potential conflicts, as PRI and Evopoli demand an equal share of candidates and RN and UDI believe they deserve more candidates due to their larger results.
• Feeling himself on a strong position after gaining the PPD nomination, Former President Lagos announces that he will not take part of a primary in the Partido Socialista (PS). In response, the PS appears now determined to hold primaries in April to choose a nominee for the Nueva Mayoria primaries in July, a battle between Fernando Atria and Jose Miguel Insulza which sees many in the PS dreaming of Guillier after sensing his electoral appeal.
• And the number of independent candidates rises, as 2013 candidate Franco Parisi is offered to run for President by the centrist-regionalist party Democracia Regional Patagonica, signaling a comeback for the candidate after scoring more than 10% in the last election and, at one point, being feared by the Chilean right as a candidate who could have ended up in the second round.

Youth that didn't know Pinochet's regime is more Piñeira supporting than Guillier. Are they waiting for a more left-wing candidate or they're more conservative than their parents?

The main reason Piñera is winning the youth vote is because most people under 30 (and probably under 35) doesn't care a thing about politics, and turnout in this cohort is very, very low (is higher in the higher classes, which are very right wing here). Besides that, the Concertación/Nueva Mayoria brand in the youth is dead. I believe the majority of the young people (including me) are left-wing, but being a leftie in Chile is a very broad concept and the hate between the different groups is very high (a sad situation).

Probably I'm gonna vote for the Frente Amplio candidate (Claudia Sanhueza maybe?) in the first round, and if the runn-off is between Piñera and Guillier, blank maybe. Although if Guillier doesn't succumb to a very populist message (anti-immigrant rhetoric is my biggest fear) I would vote for him (I just can't accept Piñera returning to power).

Very good job Lumine.

[Lumine]

Probably I'm gonna vote for the Frente Amplio candidate (Claudia Sanhueza maybe?) in the first round, and if the runn-off is between Piñera and Guillier, blank maybe. Although if Guillier doesn't succumb to a very populist message (anti-immigrant rhetoric is my biggest fear) I would vote for him (I just can't accept Piñera returning to power).

Very good job Lumine.

Thanks, seb_pard! I would appreciate your insight regarding the left and particularly the Frente Amplio, my knowledge is rather limited there (I never considered Sanhueza for example, although she does seem a long shot). My condolences for the ongoing situation of the left, I am often very frustrated at the divisions on the right and the constant antics and stupidity often displayed by the UDI, but the left has like 20 different parties now and may end up divided in three or four coalitions at this rate.

I fully expect a competitive election between Piñera and Guillier (I cannot believe how Guillier rises so fast without opening his mouth), seeing as the Frente Amplio will probably go to the polls divided and Sentido Futuro appears to be dead in the water.

[RodPresident]

Can Kast join Sentido Futuro. It makes more sense for him, if he doesn't get things from Chile Vamos.

[Lumine]

Can Kast join Sentido Futuro. It makes more sense for him, if he doesn't get things from Chile Vamos.

It's possible, but unlikely. There is an important wing in Evopoli which gives more priority to being a liberal party than being part of the center-right that they indeed advocate moving to Sentido Futuro, but Kast is a bit more conservative than that wing, so unless he's pushed too far I don't see him leaving Chile Vamos.

Plus, Sentido Futuro had a very negative result in the municipals and it is facing internal issues of its own, so joining that coalition right now doesn't look like a good move in the short and long term.  I'd wager Kast probably believes (and rightly so) that he can get a lot more trying to move Chile Vamos to the center from the inside than the other alternative.

[Max Stirner]

Bachelet 2006-2010
Pinera 2010-2014
Bachelet 2014-2018
Pinera 2018-2022
Bachelet
Pinera
Bachelet
Pinera
etc

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, January 30th:

Bachelet Approval: 18%/75%

Forest Fires:

Did the Government take the right decisions to face the emergency?: 22%/75%
What was the cause of the forest fires?: Accidental 10%/ Intentional 75%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 24%, Guillier 18%, Ossandon 3%, Lagos 2%, Parisi 2%, Others 6%, Undecided 45%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 38%, Guiller 24%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 34%

[Lumine]

Bachelet 2006-2010
Pinera 2010-2014
Bachelet 2014-2018
Pinera 2018-2022
Bachelet
Pinera
Bachelet
Pinera
etc

Boy, that would be awful. Still, Bachelet did pledge never to run again for office, and I cannot see a way for her to do so successfully (although then again, I never expected Piñera to really stage a comeback). It could have been worse, though, Piñera has been running for President since 1993 (where he dropped out in a major scandal along with rival and future candidate Evelyn Matthei), 1999 (where he was pushed out by the rising Joaquin Lavin) and 2005 (where he went to the first round against Lavin, defeated him and then lost to Bachelet). Bachelet, by comparison, only rose to prominence in the Lagos government, she was unknown before.

Also, Bachelet breaks a new record by becoming the President with the highest disapproval ratings in Chile since polling began (75% disapprove). Her 18% approval rating is also tied for the lowest approval, with her own numbers a few months ago. The awful tragedy of the forest fires is really taking its toll on her.

[DavidB.]

Absolutely great updates, Lumine, thank you so much.

I know Israel is very unpopular in many South American countries and that Chile has quite a sizeable Palestinian community, but are there any candidates/parties in Chile that are pro-Israel?

[seb_pard]

Absolutely great updates, Lumine, thank you so much.

I know Israel is very unpopular in many South American countries and that Chile has quite a sizeable Palestinian community, but are there any candidates/parties in Chile that are pro-Israel?

Most of the jewish politicians are pro Israel, but I think they try not to comment too much to avoid the bullying from pro-palestinian people (very annoying), but I don't think the parties are too vocal about this.

One important thing is that the palestinian in Chile are generally middle to upper class, so they are represented across all parties (for example Jadue from the Communist Party, Tarud from the PPD, Hasbun from UDI, etc.)

[seb_pard]

Probably I'm gonna vote for the Frente Amplio candidate (Claudia Sanhueza maybe?) in the first round, and if the runn-off is between Piñera and Guillier, blank maybe. Although if Guillier doesn't succumb to a very populist message (anti-immigrant rhetoric is my biggest fear) I would vote for him (I just can't accept Piñera returning to power).

Very good job Lumine.

Thanks, seb_pard! I would appreciate your insight regarding the left and particularly the Frente Amplio, my knowledge is rather limited there (I never considered Sanhueza for example, although she does seem a long shot). My condolences for the ongoing situation of the left, I am often very frustrated at the divisions on the right and the constant antics and stupidity often displayed by the UDI, but the left has like 20 different parties now and may end up divided in three or four coalitions at this rate.

I fully expect a competitive election between Piñera and Guillier (I cannot believe how Guillier rises so fast without opening his mouth), seeing as the Frente Amplio will probably go to the polls divided and Sentido Futuro appears to be dead in the water.

I'm not involved too much in the left, but I have a lot of friends who are very active in some parties (I studied in the catholic university between 2009 and 2013 and there I met many members from the NAU (basically the origin of Revolución Democratica).

I think the main issue that bring so many division to the political field between coalitions is the 'Caudillo' nature of our politics (which is very strong in the mayoral election, but also on MEO, Parisi, etc.)

[Lumine]

Absolutely great updates, Lumine, thank you so much.

I know Israel is very unpopular in many South American countries and that Chile has quite a sizeable Palestinian community, but are there any candidates/parties in Chile that are pro-Israel?

Thank you very much, David!

I believe the descendents of Palestinian origin are estimated as being anywhere from 300,000 to 500,000 (the largest number anywhere outside the Arab World and Israel), but when it comes to politicians of Jewish or Palestinian descent you can find them across all parties (from Rodrigo Hinzpeter, Piñera's Interior Minister and close ally to relevant people in the left like Tomás Hirsch or many members of Bachelet's cabinets).

Broadly speaking (and usually regardless of left or right), at the government level you usually find efforts to balance the relationship with both countries on a positive level (we recognize Palestine, for example, yet at the same time the Chilean military holds strong ties to Israel, which acts as one of its main military hardware suppliers). The relationship is evidently close to Palestine, though, whenever events take place in Gaza there's usually calls for a strong condemnation of Israel.

But as seb_pard pointed out parties don't tend to be too vocal about it, the last time it was more broadly debated was in 2011 and in 2014, and while in that case it was the center-left that was more pro-Palestine, it wasn't that the right was pro-Israel. Indeed, it was under Piñera that we recognized Palestine.

[DavidB.]

Thanks for your responses, intriguing.

[Lumine]

There's a bit of an unforseen issue that could drastically change the outlook of the election, which I think it's better to explain now. As a result of the many reforms to the electoral laws when confidence in the political parties plummeted into nothingness, all parties were mandated to go through a process of re-inscription of its party members equivalent to the 0,25% of voters in the last parliamentary election, meaning every party needed to gather 17,500 signatures in 12 months with the process due to end in April.

It seemed like an easy target back then, but there's such a level of disatafiction and distrust in politics that all parties are struggling to get the signatures, and it's not an issue of the small parties, it's affecting the larger ones directly. The problem is that if a party fails to gather the signatures it will cease to be a legal party, and so it won't be able to nominate a Presidental candidate and oficially compete in the Parliamentary Election (unless their candidates go in the list of another party).

This is going to such grave levels than virtually all parties, and particularly the splinter parties of the Frente Amplio appear in grave danger of ceasing to oficially exist or having to fuse with other parties to survive. To provide an example, if the Partido Radical or PPD fail to get the signatures (and it's possible it could happen), Guillier or Lagos would be out of the primary, unless they were able to gather signatures to run as independents or find another party (Guillier has a small back-up in the Izquierda Ciudadana party, but it's impossible such a small group would also get the signatures.

All in all, it's quite a mess.

In other news, the national convention of the Democracia Cristiana was suspended by Chairman Carolina Goic due to the forest fires. It is believed Goic is slowly cementing her leadership of the party, and many believe that once she holds the convention the party will indeed proclaim her the DC candidate for either the Nueva Mayoria primaries, or, less likely, the first round.

[seb_pard]

I found a very interesting map on the Congress' Library. It's the educational and economic level by Censal district of Metropolitan Region (where Santiago is)

 

Basically Blue is highest level and red is lowest. The info is from 2002, so is a bit outdated, but I don't think that this scenario has changed too much.

[DavidB.]

The Chileans here may find this to be interesting.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Bachelet 2006-2010
Pinera 2010-2014
Bachelet 2014-2018
Pinera 2018-2022
Bachelet
Pinera
Bachelet
Pinera
etc

Makes Alan Garcia look weak.

[Lumine]

Bachelet 2006-2010
Pinera 2010-2014
Bachelet 2014-2018
Pinera 2018-2022
Bachelet
Pinera
Bachelet
Pinera
etc

Makes Alan Garcia look weak.

The ride never ends... To be fair, it's not the first time it happens. A large part of the XX Century in Chile was defined by the rivalry between Arturo Alessandri (1920-1924, 1925, 1932-1938) and General Carlos Ibañez del Campo (1927-1931, 1952-1928), both serving two terms and being fierce rivals while, ironically, never running against each other (Alessandri ran unsuccessfuly in 1931, Ibañez faced the same in 1942).

The Chileans here may find this to be interesting.

I can't see the full story, but in principle it wouldn't surprise me. One of the most fascinating aspects of Pinochet and the military regime is the level of cooperation on different matters they reached with different countries (with often contradicting stances). As far as I know we even sold weapons to Saddam Hussein during the 80's, a bit of an intrigue that even got a foreign journalist killed in Santiago when he seemingly got too close to the issue.

[Lumine]

The Presidential campaigns entered a period of rest through most of January and February (particularly because of those dreadful forest fires), but some events have been taking place as March looks like the decisive month for several candidates:

• Unsurprisingly, Piñera continues to set the stage for his announcement in March, in what ought to be the decisive month for his candidacy. In the span of three weeks he'll have to announce, fight to become the nominee of RN and UDI in their respective conventions, and dodge the fall out of an investigation on a company on which he has several links to, involved in some shady dealings during a maritime dispute with Peru.
• The other Chile Vamos candidates are forced to wait until Piñera confirms his plans, to the detriment of minor candidates Chahuan and Espina and particularly the maverick Senator Ossandon, who hasn't found success either refraining from attacking Piñera or going after him. Felipe Kast on the other hand, presented his government program and is touring the country with a "renewal" platform (including cutting taxes and the size of government, lowering the voting age to 16 and legalizing gay marriage).
• Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind, formerly UDI) continues his quest to be an alternate hard right candidate for the first round. Kast has gathered about 17,000 signatures of the 37,000 he needs, a few months still left to go. It will be tight, but it's not impossible he gets to the first round.
• DC Chairman Carolina Goic makes the news today by entering the presidential race as the sole challenger to be the Democracia Cristiana candidate, presumably to fight in the Nueva Mayoria Primaries. The move is yet another blow to former President Lagos, now reviled by the progressives in the Nueva Mayoria and abandoned by the center.
• Polls haven't changed much (and remain inaccurate until they measure other candidates such as the Frente Amplio potential nominee), but they show Guillier in the decline against Piñera, the former President retaining a healthy lead. It remains to be seen how March will change the scenario.
• Parties continue to panic over the legalization process, as only a handful are even close to the number of required signatures. There's widespread panic in the PPD particularly, as historic figures of the party jump ship while the signature target looks far ahead.

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, February 27th:

Bachelet Approval: 18%/73%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 25%, Guillier 17%, Ossandon 3%, Lagos 3%, Parisi 2%, Goic 1%, Kast 1%, Insulza 1%, Farkas 1%, Ominami 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 39%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 41%, Guiller 22%, Lagos 2%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 34%

Chile Vamos Primary:
(among center-right, right voters)

Piñera 68%, Ossandon 9%, F. Kast 7%, Espina 3%, Chahuan 2%, Undecided 11%

Nueva Mayoria Primary:
(among center-left, left voters)

Guillier 66%, Lagos 7%, Insulza 7%, Goic 3%, Atria 1%, Undecided 16%

[seb_pard]

Some news from the left:

Yesterday, Alberto Mayol (a Sociology Professor and a fairly known political analyst here) announced his intention to run as a presidential candidate from the Broad Front. He has the support from Nueva Izquierda (New Left, a political party founded by former communist and copper union leader Cristian Cuevas). As far as I know, FA parties have until March 20th to propose candidates to run in the primaries in June 6th.
 
The potential candidates are the following:
Democratic Revolution: They are analyzing between Sebastian Depolo (the party’s president) and Claudia Sanhueza (economist and former communist, she participated in Bachelet’s electoral platform).
Autonomous Left: Carlos Ruiz, an academic, he has a strong influence in the movement, but he is not known to the general population. I don’t think he has a chance.
Power: They are promoting Luis Mesina as candidate. He is the leader of the No+AFP movement (a movement which aims to end the current Chilean pension system and reestablish a state-funded one).
 
I think the chances of a FA presidential victory are slim, but if they make an interesting primary campaign they could aim to obtain 15%-20%.
 
On the congressional part, FA aims to get 1 deputy per district (28 diputados). They currently have 3 (Giorgio Jackson, Gabriel Boric and Vlado Mirosevic). I think they could succeed, but they have to put an effort in the more rural parts of Chile (particularly in the south) which the Nueva Mayoria is still strong (on the left-on-center side). Another issue is that the Communist Party is going to run as part of NM, and unfortunately I think that situation could split the left electorate that is undecided between the Communist Party and some parties from the FA (e.g me).

[Lumine]

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced
Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced
Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD-PS) - Announced
Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced
Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March
Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Will decide in March

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced

Todos:

TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures

Pais:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud + Red Liberal)

Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative

Frente Amplio:
(RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others)

Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced

RD Chairman Sebastian Depolo (RD) - Speculative
Economist Claudia Sanhueza (RD) - Speculative
Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Independent, Other:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, 23,000 signatures (15,000 to go)
Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Announced, gathering signatures
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures with DRP support

Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced

Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, March 13th:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/68%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 26%, Guillier 17%, Ossandon 4%, Lagos 2%, Parisi 2%, Goic 1%, Kast 1%, Insulza 1%, Farkas 1%, Ominami 1%, Others 4%, Undecided 40%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 45%, Guiller 20%, Lagos 2%, Ossandon 2%, Other/None 31%

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Criteria Research, March 15th:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/71%

Chile Vamos Primary:
(among center-right, right voters)

Piñera 71%, Ossandon 12%, F. Kast 12%, Undecided 5%

Nueva Mayoria Primary:
(among center-left, left voters)

Guillier 62%, Goic 12%, Lagos 9%, Insulza 7%, Undecided 10%[/quote]

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Guillier 25%, Piñera 23%,  Lagos 7%, Parisi 5%, Ossandon 4%, Ominami 3%, Jackson 3%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 44%, Guiller 29%, Lagos 3%, Other/None 24%

Piñera/Guillier round: Guillier 41%, Piñera 36%, Undecided 23%

Piñera/Lagos round: Piñera 42%, Lagos 15%, Undecided 43%

Piñera/Insulza round: Piñera 40%, Insulza 22%, Undecided 38%

Piñera/Goic round: Piñera 39%, Goic 18%, Undecided 43%

[seb_pard]

Some news worth to tell:
-It was published last week that Piñera avoided CLP 44 billions (66 Million dollars) though the purchase of zombie companies, which registered larges amount of losses. I don't think this is gonna hurt him, but is an additional episode of a long history of unethical behaviour.
-Today was published that Bachelet youngest daughter has a lot near a place that a mining company has a project. Why is this news? The project was rejected a few weeks ago by regional authorities (although from what I know the project complied with the law and the rejection is due to some political rift, but that has nothing to do with Bachelet's daughter). I believe there is no story here, she has the lot since 2012 and is really small, but is going to hurt Bachelet I think. Nevertheless, this speaks very badly about Bachelet, because her daughter is just 24 years old and is not normal here for someone young to have land.
-Tomorrow the Broad Front will publish the list of congressional candidates. 

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, March 20th:

Bachelet Approval: 22%/68%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 24%, Guillier 16%, Ossandon 3%, Lagos 2%, Goic 2%, Parisi 1%, Kast 1%, Insulza 1%, Ominami 1%, Mayol 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 42%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 44%, Guiller 17%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 1%, Goic 1%, Other/None 34%