Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:24:58 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 15
Author Topic: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)  (Read 48143 times)
Lumine
LumineVonReuental
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,610
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #100 on: April 16, 2017, 05:44:39 PM »

Agreed, although I'll note that unlike Guillier, Lagos actually had political views, ideas and a platform, so I certainly rate him higher.

In that sense, consider me amongst the right wingers who lamented his departure, lol
Logged
Lumine
LumineVonReuental
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,610
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #101 on: April 29, 2017, 06:28:54 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2017, 08:04:15 PM by Lumine »

April 29th:

Another DC Convention was held today, holding a vote on whether to enter the first round or fight a losing battle against Guillier in the Nueva Mayoria Primaries. Despite heavy pressure from the Party Chairmen of the coalition, Guillier and particularly President Bachelet, the vote from the internal party delegates was 379 to 223 (62% to 38%) to go with Senator Goic to the first round. With the Nueva Mayoria parties making it clear they will not accept a parliamentary arrangement with the DC should they go the first round, it appears the governing coalition will indeed fully split at the election.

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced, endorsed by PRSD, PS, MAS, IC, PPD and PC.

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Announced, endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI.
Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced.
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced, endorsed by Evopoli.

Democracia Cristiana:

Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced, endorsed by DC.

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced, endorsed by PRO.

Todos:

TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures.
Party Chairman Nicolas Shea (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures.

Pais:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced, endorsed by Pais.

Union Patriótica:

Party Chairman Eduardo Artés (UPA) - Announced, endorsed by UPA.

Frente Amplio:
(RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH, MSA and Partido Liberal, among others)

Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced, endorsed by ND and MSA.
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Announced, endorsed by RD, MA and PH.

Independent, Other:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Announced, has enough signatures.

Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Announced, gathering signatures.
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures and endorsed by DRP and minor parties.
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced.
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced.
Logged
RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #102 on: April 30, 2017, 12:23:58 PM »

Would a Sentido Futuro, Evopoli and DC coalition possible by now? And would they have chances to get into runoff?
Logged
Nordenskjöld
Newbie
*
Posts: 1
Chile
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #103 on: May 03, 2017, 06:43:49 PM »

Would a Sentido Futuro, Evopoli and DC coalition possible by now? And would they have chances to get into runoff?

I'm an Evopoli voter and I wouldn't be comfortable in a coalition with the DC.

The Christian Democrats in Chile –in my opinion- are more social democratic than the Christian Democrats in for example Germany, and so I'd rather have Evopoli –centre-right movement- in a coalition with RN, the UDI and the PRI than with the DC.

I don't think it'd be plausible now, but maybe in a few years.

However, as I said, I think Evopoli is better off with the conservatives. I just don't trust the DC.

And also I don't think the DC will wanna be apart from their PS coalition so suddenly.
Logged
EnglishPete
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,605


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #104 on: May 10, 2017, 12:47:59 PM »

Latest poll from Cadem 3-5 May

Piñera 24% (+2)
Guillier 15% (-1)
Sánchez 8% (+2)
Ossandón 4% (-)
Goic 3% (+1)
Parisi 2% (-1)
F. Kast 1% (-)
Enríquez-Ominami 1% (+1)

http://plazapublica.cl/wp-content/uploads/Track-PP173-Mayo-S1-VF.pdf

Looks to me like Sanchez is catching up with Guillier. I know that there's a long way to go but do Chilean forum members think that a Pinera/Sanchez second round is likely?
Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #105 on: May 13, 2017, 11:17:17 PM »

Latest poll from Cadem 3-5 May

Piñera 24% (+2)
Guillier 15% (-1)
Sánchez 8% (+2)
Ossandón 4% (-)
Goic 3% (+1)
Parisi 2% (-1)
F. Kast 1% (-)
Enríquez-Ominami 1% (+1)

http://plazapublica.cl/wp-content/uploads/Track-PP173-Mayo-S1-VF.pdf

Looks to me like Sanchez is catching up with Guillier. I know that there's a long way to go but do Chilean forum members think that a Pinera/Sanchez second round is likely?

I think right now she has a real possibility to go against Piñera in the second run. You really have to think that the crisis in the New Majority is really deep, and from what I seen, many people are really thinking about voting for her, and I'm not talking about the typical left voter that doesn't like "sellouts", but about the typical concertacionista voter that has been loyal during these years. They don't hate Guillier (he has a strong credibility due to his participation in Tolerancia Cero, and was viewed as a very serious journalist with a clear center-left view) but are really tired of all the scandals the New Majority has gone through.

I should add that the chilean press (which is pretty right wing and very concentrated in a few actors) has been very positive about Beatriz Sanchez and also some politicians from the right. I think that is a dangerous game from them, because I believe they think she is unelectable but I really don't think that is entirely true. The chilean electorate is pretty left wing and most of the people don't see Beatriz Sanchez as an extremist (unlike Roxana Miranda, for example).
Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #106 on: May 13, 2017, 11:23:34 PM »

I'm planning to write about Chilean political parties and a description of the country and political districts, but I'm very busy studying for my CFA exam level II, but I except to start writing some summaries about the parties. Luminee, it could be great if you do this with me.

The following is a short summary I wrote about chilean politics, made especially for those who doesn't know very much about the country.

Chile is a presidential republic. The country is very centralized and the regions (15 in total) have little power (even the Intendents, head of every region, are appointed by the President). We have a bicameral congress, composed by a Senate (38 seats), and the Chamber of Deputies (120 seats), both located in Valparaiso. Since 1990 the legislative districts have remained unchanged, with 18 senatorial circumscriptions (2 senators each) and 60 districts (2 deputies each). The electoral system, called Sistema Binominal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_voting) has had a great influence on Chile’s political development in the last 25 years, and ended up consolidating a political system with 2 big coalitions, marginalizing other political groups with a sizable support.

We have an electoral reform last year, ending the Binominal system. Our new parliamentary will function as follow: The chamber of deputies will be composed of 150 deputies (an increase of 30) while districts have declined to 28 (each choosing between 3 and 8 deputies, using a D’hont system). In the case of the Senate, it will have 60 members and 15 circumscriptions (one per region each choosing between 2 and 5 senators).

The above-mentioned reform, long awaited by a large chunk of the population, will have a great impact on the political development of Chile. It could even be said that the DC’s decision to go directly to the presidential elections (instead of primaries) is the first evidence of a new political landscape.

Chile has a turbulent (but very interesting) political history, but due to the many things we’ve gone through, is better to analyze here our post-Pinochet politics.

Since 1990, in Chile we have seen two big coalitions, the Concertación (now New Majority), composed by several center left parties (and now the communists and other minor parties) and the Alianza (now Chile Vamos), historically composed by the UDI and RN (now also Evopoli and the PRI). To analyze Chile’s political countries is a little futile if you don’t take in account the important role these coalitions have played, and sometimes.

The current President is Michelle Bachelet, a physician and socialist politician which is in her second non-consecutive period with a deep crisis within her coalition, the New Majority.

The 38-member senate has the following composition:
New Majority (21)
DC (Christian Democrats, center to center left) – 7
PS (Socialist Party, center left) – 6
PPD (Party for Democracy, center left) – 6
MAS (Broad Social Movement, left) – 1
1 Independent (Alejandro Guillier, current presidential candidate).

Chile Vamos (14)
UDI (Independent Democratic Union, right wing) – 7
RN (National Renewal, center right) – 6
1 Independent (Jaime Orpis).

Other groups
Patagonial Regional Democracy (Big tent)– 1
Amplitud (center right) – 1
1 without party (Antonio Horvarth, from Aysen, former RN).

The 120-member chamber of deputies has the following composition:
New Majority (67)
DC – 20
PS – 16
PPD – 14
PRSD (Radical Social Democratic Party, center left) – 6
PC (Communist Party, left wing) – 6
IC (Citizen left, left wing) – 1
4 independents.

Chile Vamos ( 47)
UDI – 27
RN – 13
Evopoli (Political Evolution, center right) – 1
6 independents

Broad Front (left wing) (3)
1 from the Liberal Party, 1 from RD (Democratic Revolution, left wing) and 1 from Autonomous Left.

Amplitud have 2 deputies and Miras (Regional and Agrarian Independent Movement, the political vehicle of Alejandra Sepulveda) has 1.

(Please correct me about any spelling mistake, I have a very bad spanish and a worst english, so, any chance to improve is welcome!).
Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #107 on: May 14, 2017, 07:49:34 PM »

New weekly Cadem poll
Sebastian Piñera 24 (-)
Alejandro Guillier 15 (-)
Beatriz Sanchez 9 (+1)
Manuel Ossandon 4 (-)
Carolina Goic 3 (-)
Felipe Kast 1 (-)
Marco Enriquez-Ominami 1 (-)
Franco Parisi 1 (-1)
Others 3 (-1)

Among age demographics
18-34 years old:
Piñera 22
Sanchez 13
Guillier 13

35-54 years old:
Piñera 24
Guillier 16
Sanchez 8

55+:
Piñera 28
Guillier 18
Sanchez 7


Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #108 on: May 17, 2017, 06:35:20 PM »
« Edited: May 17, 2017, 06:39:31 PM by seb_pard »

New Criteria Research poll

Sebastián Piñera 33%
Beatriz Sanchez 21%
Alejandro Guillier 19%
Franco Parisi 6% (lol)
Carolina Goic 3%
MEO 3%
Jose Antonio Kast 3%
Roxana Miranda 1%

Run-off:

Piñera vs Sanchez
Sanchez 42%
Piñera 41%

Piñera vs Guillier
Piñera 41%
Guillier 40%

Sorry about Goic's color, but I think that yellow fits perfectly with the DC
Logged
Lumine
LumineVonReuental
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,610
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #109 on: May 18, 2017, 12:53:34 PM »

May 18th:

With Nueva Mayoria formally split (all non-DC parties have endorsed Guillier, and there's heavy talk of rebranding the coalition) and Guillier searching for signatures to enter the first round, Chile Vamos and the Frente Amplio are gearing up for their primaries on early July, hoping to achieve high levels of turnout in a show of strenght for their candidates. Former Presidential candidate Roxana Miranda (far-left, 1,27% in the 2013 Election) joins the field, a critic of the old parties and the Frente Amplio alike.

Beatriz Sanchez is the Frente Amplio nominee in all but name (inching closer and closer to Guillier in the polls, with challenger Alberto Mayor not even surpassing 2% in primary polls), whereas the fight is turning more bitter inside Chile Vamos, with Senator Ossandon continuing his ceaseless attacks on Piñera as tensions rise due to the negotiation for the primary debates and the parliamentary election.

Political scandals continue to develop, on one side to the questionable investments of Piñera, and particularly this week due to the news that the Partido Socialista (PS) had enormous sums of money invested in countless companies, some of them linked for example to Mr. Ponce Lerou, Augusto Pinochet's son-in-law. All in all, things are starting to get fun.

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
Senator Alejandro Guiller (Ind) - Endorsed by PRSD, PS, MAS, IC, PPD and PC.

Chile Vamos:
Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI.
Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind)
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) - Endorsed by Evopoli.

Frente Amplio:
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Endorsed by RD, MA, PH, Poder and IA.
Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Endorsed by ND, MSA and IC.

Democracia Cristiana:
Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Endorsed by DC.

PRO:
Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Endorsed by PRO.

Todos:
TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Gathering signatures.
Party Chairman Nicolas Shea (Todos) - Gathering signatures.

Pais:
Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Endorsed by Pais.

ANDHA:
Former candidate Roxana Miranda (ANDHA) - Endorsed by ANDHA.

Union Patriótica:
Party Chairman Eduardo Artés (UPA) - Endorsed by UPA.

Independent:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Has reached enough signatures

Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Gathering signatures.
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Gathering signatures.
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Gathering signatures.
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Gathering signatures.
Logged
EnglishPete
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,605


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #110 on: May 18, 2017, 12:59:41 PM »

New Criteria Research poll

Sebastián Piñera 33%
Beatriz Sanchez 21%
Alejandro Guillier 19%
Franco Parisi 6% (lol)
Carolina Goic 3%
MEO 3%
Jose Antonio Kast 3%
Roxana Miranda 1%

Run-off:

Piñera vs Sanchez
Sanchez 42%
Piñera 41%

Piñera vs Guillier
Piñera 41%
Guillier 40%

Sorry about Goic's color, but I think that yellow fits perfectly with the DC
You were saying that Sanchez was getting an easy ride from pro Chile Vamos media. With a poll like that I imagine that that might change now.
Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #111 on: May 18, 2017, 07:26:45 PM »

New Criteria Research poll

Sebastián Piñera 33%
Beatriz Sanchez 21%
Alejandro Guillier 19%
Franco Parisi 6% (lol)
Carolina Goic 3%
MEO 3%
Jose Antonio Kast 3%
Roxana Miranda 1%

Run-off:

Piñera vs Sanchez
Sanchez 42%
Piñera 41%

Piñera vs Guillier
Piñera 41%
Guillier 40%

Sorry about Goic's color, but I think that yellow fits perfectly with the DC
You were saying that Sanchez was getting an easy ride from pro Chile Vamos media. With a poll like that I imagine that that might change now.
Honestly I don't think this is a good poll, from what I read is taken online through a panel, so is not taken seriously (also cadem is not a good pollster, but is the only weekly poll that we have). The golden standard of chilean polls is the CEP, and I think is coming soon. That will give us a better view about the current political landscape.

From the more pro Chile Vamos media (I'm pointing directly at El Mercurio, but also Copesa and Mega Tv in a lesser level) I can't tell. I have the same feeling from last week, right wing people still don't see Beatriz Sanchez (and the Frente Amplio) as a threat, they still see her as a project from some college boys. But as Luminee said, this is getting interesting.
Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #112 on: May 18, 2017, 07:41:17 PM »

Political scandals continue to develop, on one side to the questionable investments of Piñera, and particularly this week due to the news that the Partido Socialista (PS) had enormous sums of money invested in countless companies, some of them linked for example to Mr. Ponce Lerou, Augusto Pinochet's son-in-law. All in all, things are starting to get fun.
Honestly I really can't see the scandal there (and more as a vendetta against the PS because of Piñera and his recent events with his wealth). This is money that the state paid back after took it from them in 1973. This happen to many parties and most of them spent that on campaigns but they decided to make a committee to oversee this. The committee asked to the Private Banking division of BCI Bank to manage the money, and most of it was invested in fixed income (and a lesser part on equity). Only the comite. This was nationally known (I remember from 2012 I think after reading the El Mercurio's Reportajes section about the financial health of the main parties).

From what I reading only the committee had knowledge about the Portfolio's composition. The main mistake probably was not to invest in some companies, but I can't see something illegal or unethical, unlike other parties using fake bills from private companies to fund them o pay their members during opposition time (I see not only UDI, but also the PPD, which I think is Chile's worst party). And the criticism I see from some people is the typical "Oh a communist with an iphone or North Face".

Maybe I have a bias because I work in the financial sector but I can't see something bad here.
Logged
Lumine
LumineVonReuental
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,610
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #113 on: May 22, 2017, 04:51:26 PM »

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, May 22nd:

Bachelet Approval: 22%/67%

Presidential:

Voting Intention:

Piñera 26% (+2)
Guillier 14% (-1)
Sanchez 8% (-1)
Ossandon 4%
Goic 3%
Parisi 2% (+1)
F. Kast 1%
Ominami 1%
J. A. Kast 1% (+1)
Others 4% (+1)
Undecided 36% (-3)

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 54%, Guiller 18%, Sanchez 4%, Ossandon 2%, Goic 1%, Ominami 1%, Parisi 1%, Other/None 19%

It's a bit of a lazy thing to do, but if you add candidates accounting for coalitions you get:

Chile Vamos: 32%
Nueva Mayoria: 17%
Frente Amplio: 8%
Others: 7%
Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #114 on: May 25, 2017, 07:40:05 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2017, 07:43:16 PM by seb_pard »

Excellent although non-electoral news.

The government issued to schools a decrete (a circular) on April 27 about the rights of trans students. I remember some bishops made some noise and I didn't pay too much attention, but today I read an article in El Mostrador and really I think this is a real development that aims to a more inclusive society.
 
The document says that schools should implement the following concrete measures:
1. The use of inclusive language to erase gender stereotypes.
2. Promote diverse spaces of reflection, capacitation and support for members of the educational community, with the objective of assured, promote and guard the rights of trans students.
3. The educational community should always (without any exception) should treat the trans child by the social name independent of the legal name.
4. Trans students have the right to wear the uniform and/or accessories that they considered adequate with their gender (note: In chile almost all schools use uniform).
5. Trans students should be provided of easiness about the use of bathroom and showers, according to their own needs in the process they are living, respecting their gender identity.

In addition to the measures previously mentioned, schools are encouraged to implement more inclusive policies. Institutions that don't comply with the document will be subject to administrative sanctions.

It won't resolve all the challenges with respect to LGBT rights , but it is a good step.

Note: If you're interested about this and know some spanish, you can read more here: http://www.elmostrador.cl/braga/2017/05/25/que-es-lo-que-exige-realmente-la-circular-de-educacion-que-protege-los-derechos-de-los-estudiantes-trans/

I'm very happy Cheesy
Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #115 on: June 06, 2017, 10:47:06 PM »

Now that I have more free time (no more CFA for a while) I'm preparing an introduction to Chilean parties (very difficult due to UK's election, go Corbyn Cheesy), that I hope it would be useful to users that don't know about my country's politics. Lets start with the right wing coalition Chile Vamos:

Chile Vamos

Chile Vamos is the right-wing coalition of Chile and the main opposition. It’s currently composed of 4 parties: Independent Democratic Union (UDI), National Renewal (RN), Political Evolution (Evopoli) and the Independent Regionalist Party (PRI). Although CV was founded in 2015, is basically the new name of the Alianza por Chile, the traditional alliance of UDI and RN (in Chile we like to change the name of our coalitions so we convince ourselves that by changing the name, it will be something different).

I’m going to give a brief of every party of CV

UDI
Is not easy for me to talk about this party, because is basically one of the most polarizing of the national parties (along with the Communist Party). The UDI is a right-wing party, very conservative on social issues and followers of the Chicago School on economics. The party was founded by Jaime Guzman, the ideological architect of Pinochet’s constitution and the most important ideologue the right had had in Chile. Guzman was murdered in 1991 by members of the guerrilla group Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front (the military wing of the Communist party during the Pinochet government) and he became an icon in this party.

Members of the UDI follow a very particular ideology called Gremialismo (Guildism) formulated by Jaime Guzman in the 60’s. Gremialismo propose the independence of the so called intermediate bodies but basically is a justification to avoid the political role of social organizations (e.g Prevent organizations like unions from being left wing). The Gremialistas achieved a great prominence in 1967 when they opposed the reform movement of the Catholic University (my university Smiley). They were capable of create a strong movement that reached great power in the University and the country. Most of the leaders of the Gremialismo are now the leaders of the party (most of them are senators).

Nowadays the UDI is the largest political party (the obtain on average between 18% and 25% of the vote). They are particularly strong with the upper classes and the south’s rural areas. They have a strong message of being a “popular” party, with a strong support of lower classes, but I don’t think there is a empirical evidence of that, except on some regions of the Chilean south. But one problem the party has is that most of their population don’t like them.

Electoral results (Congress):
Year-% of vote in Chambers of deputies-% of vote in Senate
1989 – 9.17% - 5.17%
1993 – 12.5% - 10.15%
1997 – 14.45% - 17.19%
2001 – 25.18% - 15.18%
2005 – 22.34% - 21.56%
2009 – 23.04% - 21.56%
2013 – 18.92% - 14.69%


RN
I don’t think there is too much difference between UDI and RN on some economic issues, but RN is clearly a more diverse party. You can find very broad range of right wing politicians here, for example Ossandon, who has a populist message (he was mayor of one of the most populous communes, Puente Alto, which is a mix of middle class and some very poor and dangerous neighborhoods), Sebastian Piñera (now independent, but this is his party), Andres Allamand and Carlos Larrain.

I think one of the advantaged of RN in front of Udi is that the party is not seen as sectarian as their allies, and people are more prone to support them (see Sebastian Piñera). One problem is that the party don’t have a coherent message rely too much on the popularity of some candidates, but they don’t have a clear identity and you can see now with the feud between Piñera and Ossandon.

Electoral results (Congress):
1989 – 18.28% - 10.76%
1993 – 16.31% - 14.92%
1997 – 16.77% - 14.85%
2001 – 13.77% - 19.74%
2005 – 14.12% - 10.80%
2009 – 17.82% - 20.19%
2013 – 14.90% - 16.24%


Evopoli
Evopoli was founded by Felipe Kast and other politicians in 2012 with the intention to create a new center right, with a liberal message. I am very surprised with the popularity of this party with the right-wing people under 30. Although the party has a fresh message I wouldn’t consider a liberal party, I can’t compare their message with parties like FDP or D66. But I think their development is very interesting, specially with Kast as their leader (I don’t like him, but he has a bright future as a leader of the right).

The base of the party is not clear yet because they only have one congressman (Kast) and this is their first election at a national level.


PRI
With all honestly, I think this is a joke party, it was founded by some Christian Democrats politician during the first government of Bachelet and have some politicians with some regional support. I don’t think they should be classify as a center right party, they are big tent (but they apparently have an excellent relationship with Piñera).

Electoral results (Congress):
2009 – 4% - 2.47%
2013 – 1.15% - 0

Logged
Lumine
LumineVonReuental
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,610
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #116 on: June 19, 2017, 02:17:44 PM »

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, June 19th:

Bachelet Approval: 27%/62%

Presidential:

Voting Intention:

Piñera 25%
Guillier 13%
Sanchez 9%
Ossandon 6% (+1)
Goic 2% (+1)
F. Kast 2% (+1)
Mayol 2% (+1)
Parisi 1%
Ominami 1%
Others 5%
Undecided 34% (-6)

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 56%, Guiller 14%, Sanchez 4%, Ossandon 2%, Goic 1%, F. Kast 1%, Other/None 22%

If you consider coalitions:

Chile Vamos: 33%
Nueva Mayoria: 15%
Frente Amplio: 11%
Others: 7%

In other (minor) news, quixotic candidate and TV personality Nicolas Larrain drops out today to endorse Felipe Kast (and the eventual Chile Vamos nominee), leaving the field as follows:

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
Senator Alejandro Guiller (Ind) - Endorsed by PRSD, PS, MAS, IC, PPD and PC.

Chile Vamos:
Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI.
Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind)
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) - Endorsed by Evopoli.

Frente Amplio:
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Endorsed by RD, MA, PH, Poder and IA.
Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Endorsed by ND, MSA and IC.

Democracia Cristiana:
Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Endorsed by DC.

PRO:
Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Endorsed by PRO.

Todos:
Party Chairman Nicolas Shea (Todos) - Gathering signatures.

Pais:
Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Endorsed by Pais.

ANDHA:
Former candidate Roxana Miranda (ANDHA) - Endorsed by ANDHA.

Union Patriótica:
Party Chairman Eduardo Artés (UPA) - Endorsed by UPA.

Independent:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Has reached enough signatures

Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Gathering signatures.
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Gathering signatures.
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Gathering signatures.
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Gathering signatures.
Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #117 on: June 19, 2017, 08:21:43 PM »

The primaries officially started last week, so the main channels must broadcast the ads at prime time.

The ads of the first day are the following:

Chile Vamos

Sebastian Piñera
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-or6rBpG9o

Felipe Kast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg9M2ZRC8ik

Manuel Jose Ossandon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l4p_iWQXrY


Broad Front

Beatriz Sanchez
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi2xJo-ykm8

Alberto Mayol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DI7JkqrKD74

Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #118 on: June 29, 2017, 11:12:06 PM »

We have the primaries this sunday. The turnout is going to be probably very low (due to the weather, the finals of Confederations cup and lack of interest) but election day is actually very fun in chile, the voted are counted live and the process is very fast.

Logged
mgop
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 811
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #119 on: June 30, 2017, 04:32:18 AM »

will left parties support each other in second round?
Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #120 on: June 30, 2017, 12:14:08 PM »

Based on what the party leaders are saying yes, but I really think that the support is meaningless. For example in 2009, MEO endorsed Frei in the second round but he was very reluctant and in the endorsing event he refereed Frei as the "candidate of the 29% percent" all the time. The thing is the turnout, based on what the candidates will act during the year until November would say a lot about the enthusiasm of the electorate. The main issue with Guillier right now is that for most of the people (to the left of center) he is the obvious reason above Piñera, but don't think is worthy to go and support for Guillier in order to avoid Piñera.

The missing point is the DC. Goic's candidate is almost dead, but I think there's gonna be a lot of noise about the party's support in the second round (or maybe the first), and probable they are going to officially endorse Guillier but many "high profiles" comrades (in Chile the DC militants call themselves comrades) would support publicly Piñera (e.g. Mariana Aylwin, Clemente Perez, etc.).
Logged
mgop
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 811
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #121 on: June 30, 2017, 03:42:55 PM »

i noticed interesting pattern in chile. why incumbent presidents didn't seek re-election in 2009 (bachelet) and 2013 (pinera)?
Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #122 on: June 30, 2017, 07:53:53 PM »

That's because the constitutions doesn't allow to seek inmediate re-election, otherwise both Bachelet and Piñera would had happily run for a second term.
Logged
mgop
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 811
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #123 on: July 01, 2017, 05:52:47 AM »

oh in one way that's good because they can't stay in power for long, but in other way they will stay in politics even longer just with breaks.
Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #124 on: July 01, 2017, 07:23:27 PM »

Exactly, that is the trade-off (and also one problem is that there's too much pressure for a president to do as many things and reforms as possible without a break).
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 15  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.081 seconds with 12 queries.