Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)
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  Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)
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Author Topic: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)  (Read 48147 times)
seb_pard
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« Reply #150 on: July 02, 2017, 05:00:16 PM »
« edited: July 02, 2017, 07:31:17 PM by seb_pard »

Preliminary results from Punta Arenas (3 polling stations I think)

Chile Vamos
Piñera 94
Ossandon 34
Kast 29

Frente Amplio
Sanchez 45
Mayol 23


Poor results from Sanchez, Punta Arenas is home of Boric (which he also represents) and should be higher  her vote IMO.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #151 on: July 02, 2017, 05:02:34 PM »

From what I heard on TV, participation was high in Puente Alto. Ossandon was mayor there (and also is the second largest municipality by population in the country).

It should be interesting.
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Lumine
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« Reply #152 on: July 02, 2017, 05:07:26 PM »

Aye, it's going to be an exciting night!
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Lumine
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« Reply #153 on: July 02, 2017, 05:20:26 PM »

Preliminar (and limited) results show Piñera at around 60%, Ossandon and Kast close to each other on roughly 20%. Sanchez would be close to 65-70%, Mayol around 30-35%.
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Lumine
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« Reply #154 on: July 02, 2017, 06:06:18 PM »

With 22.97%:

Chile Vamos:
Piñera 58.5%
Ossandon 28.0%
Kast 13.5%

Frente Amplio:
Sanchez 69.4%
Mayol 30.6%
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seb_pard
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« Reply #155 on: July 02, 2017, 06:58:56 PM »

With 81.96%:

Chile Vamos (1,041,721 votes)
Piñera 56.81%
Kast 14.24%
Ossandon 28.94%

Frente Amplio (257,611 votes)
Beatriz Sanchez 68.23%
Alberto Mayol 31.77%
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Lumine
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« Reply #156 on: July 02, 2017, 07:07:24 PM »

So by tomorrow, the field would be looking like this:

Cleared to enter the first round:

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Chile Vamos)
Senator Alejandro Guiller (Nueva Mayoria)
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (Frente Amplio)

Senator Carolina Goic (Democracia Cristiana)
Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO)
Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Independent)

Not yet cleared to enter:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais)
Roxana Miranda (ANDHA)
Eduardo Artes (Union Patriotica)
Nicolas Shea (Todos)

Carola Canelo (Independent)
Franco Parisi (Independent)
Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (Independent)
Marcel Claude (Independent)
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seb_pard
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« Reply #157 on: July 02, 2017, 07:08:20 PM »

Mayol announced that he is now full behind Beatriz Sanchez. Ossandon, on the contrary, hasn't endorsed Piñera, he said that although he is from the right, he doesn't own his support and he plans to meet Piñera this week.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #158 on: July 02, 2017, 07:13:04 PM »

Actually a good turnout from Chile Vamos, much better than 2013 (I think Piñera has the same effect on them that Bachelet has on NM).

About Frente Amplio, is their first primary (and first election) so there's no comparison, but I think that NM is ready to attack them, comparing the vote to 2013, but the situation is very different. But a united Frente Amplio is good I think. I'm only afraid of a tough campaign between DC, NM and FA that could damage the parliamentarian results.
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Lumine
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« Reply #159 on: July 02, 2017, 07:15:59 PM »

Being fair, the Frente Amplio had a very good campaign. Still those results must be disappointing even if its their first primary, recieving as many combined votes as Ossandon (even with the campaign of some in the left to vote for him to get Piñera out) is not a sign of confidence if Sanchez ever intends to reach the second round.

I wanted Kast to do better, but I can be pleased with the good turnout for Chile Vamos (around 800,000 in 2013, it will surpass 1,200,000 this time around).
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seb_pard
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« Reply #160 on: July 02, 2017, 07:20:53 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2017, 07:23:46 PM by seb_pard »

I believe Kast's share is going up, because the vote left is basically located in the 11th district, in which he is currently at 20%. Do you think there's some "voto util" that hurt him?


I honestly think that Beatriz Sanchez is a bad candidate and campaigner. It's impressive that someone like Mayol (with negative charisma) took from her more than 30% (however I voted for him).
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Barnes
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« Reply #161 on: July 02, 2017, 07:21:23 PM »

Talk about a bad penny in the case of Chile Vamos. Wink

I've throughly enjoyed the commentary here and will be actively watching this election from now on.
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Lumine
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« Reply #162 on: July 02, 2017, 07:24:52 PM »

I believe Kast's share is going up, because the vote left is basically located in the 11th district, which he is currently at 20%. Do you think there's some "voto util" that hurt him?


I honestly think that Beatriz Sanchez is a bad candidate and campaigner. It's impressive that someone like Mayol (with negative charisma) took from her more than 30% (however I voted for him).

I would certainly say it hurt him to some extent, particularly as fears ramped up that Ossandon might deliver a surprise win. Still, I think his campaign went as well as it can be reasonably expected, and he managed to raise up a few relevant issues. I wish his performance had been stronger so he'd be better positioned for a later election, but it could have been worse.

Aye, Sanchez seems a bit like a paper tiger now. Too many mistakes in the campaign trail, too confused a message, too bland an image. I'm rather surprised about her.
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kelestian
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« Reply #163 on: July 03, 2017, 04:23:49 AM »

Stupid question: why 2013 elections was Bachelet's landslide, compared to very close results of 2006 and 2010 presidential elections?
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Lumine
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« Reply #164 on: July 03, 2017, 10:53:48 AM »

New poll, taken before the primaries:

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, July 3rdth:

Bachelet Approval: 26%/61%

Presidential:

Voting Intention:

Piñera 22% (-2)
Sanchez 11% (+2)
Guillier 9% (-3)
Ossandon 7% (+1)
F. Kast 5% (+2)
Mayol 3%
Goic 1% (-1)
J. A. Kast 1%
Parisi 1%
Ominami 1%
Others 4%
Undecided 35% (+1)

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 56%, Guiller 14%, Sanchez 5%, Ossandon 4%, F. Kast 1%, Other/None 20%

If you consider coalitions:

Chile Vamos: 35%
Frente Amplio: 14%
Nueva Mayoria: 10%
Others: 6%
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Lumine
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« Reply #165 on: July 03, 2017, 11:28:39 AM »

Stupid question: why 2013 elections was Bachelet's landslide, compared to very close results of 2006 and 2010 presidential elections?

Well, a lot of it has to do with government erosion. Bachelet came out of nowhere in 2003-2004 as an efficient government minister and gained a lot of instant popularity (she was seen as caring and close to the public). The right-wing entered 2005-2006 divided and with two candidates (Piñera and Lavin) and while Piñera put up a good fight (partly because after 16 years in government the Concertacion was looking tired) he couldn't match Bachelet's appeal.

2009-2010 saw Bachelet still popular in person, but her government and the Concertacion being unpopular. A perfect storm of sorts took place, the left divided between three candidates as Piñera united the right, moved to the center and rode a wave of a desire for change to narrowly defeat former President Frei.

But by 2013 Piñera himself and his government had turned unpopular, and there was a general sense of defeat inside the right. When Bachelet returned from New York she had her popularity intact and rode a wave of populism by promising to lead far-reaching reforms from Chile, and she benefited as well from the fact that the right-wing changed candidates several times in a comedy of errors. By the end, she captured a landslide due the disunion in the right, the unpopularity of Piñera, her own strong appeal and popularity and her rather generous promises.

Come 2017 the scenario has shifted again. Bachelet is holed up in La Moneda as a hugely unpopular president, and Piñera, while still not popular, has a clear shot at a turn if things go right for him.
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Lumine
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« Reply #166 on: July 03, 2017, 11:44:04 AM »

More polls! This time the more reliable Adimark:

Opinion Poll:

Adimark, July 3rd:

Bachelet Approval: 30%/63%

Presidential:

Voting Intention:

Piñera 31%
Guillier 15%
Sanchez 13%
Ossandon 4%
F. Kast 3%
Mayol 3%
Goic 2%
J. A. Kast 1%
Parisi 1%
Ominami 1%
Others 3%
Undecided 23%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 59%, Guiller 17%, Sanchez 4%, Ossandon 2%, Goic 1%, Other/None 17%

If you consider coalitions:

Chile Vamos: 39%
Nueva Mayoria: 17%
Frente Amplio: 16%
Others: 5%
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #167 on: July 03, 2017, 03:36:45 PM »

Well, there we go. #ReadyForGuiller I guess.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #168 on: July 03, 2017, 09:20:17 PM »

Pseudo-poll

I'm going to do a summary of the support of my friends and relative.

-My dad is not going to vote, he was undecided between Sanchez and Guillier but in the last week he got disappointed and liked Guillier's program so he is on the Guillier train now.
-My mom, sister and I are going to vote for Mayol. My mom always liked Mayol and she wasn't enthusiastic on Sanchez's candidacy.
-I have 3 other brothers, I really don't know about them, but I don't think they are going to vote.
-My girlfriend is going to vote for Ossandon.
-My best friend and her girlfriend are going to vote for Ossandon too.
-Most of my friends from work and friends from college (my career) and high school are going to vote for Kast, although from what I heard at my job, some are scared by Ossandon's chances and are planning to vote for Piñera.
-One friend from my school is going to vote for Mayol.
-Most of my friends from college (not my career) are going to vote for Sanchez, but most of them are part of Revolución Democratica (former members of NAU, the pre-RD) and even one is pre-candidate for deputy for my district.
Update:
-My dad at the end voted for Mayol, he has very disgusted with Sanchez's comments about Allende (me too) and he wanted to vote haha. He is now full on Guillier.
-One brother voted for Sanchez, Smiley the other didn't go Sad.
-Mi girlfriend and my best friend didn't vote. They support Guillier anyway.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #169 on: July 03, 2017, 09:28:30 PM »

I think Frente Amplio has a very big problem that could not only damage them but the chilean left: the Communist party is not part of it. The PC here is not a fringe party, it's almost a subculture that is very respected across a sizable part of the chilean left (but not by the right, they don't like at all them). They lead union, they are the largest party, they have many students federations, and they are very tactic about the political game. They don't like to act extreme, and although very rigid in nature, they are very willing to compromise.

For the Frente Amplio to go without the Communist party is to go without a vital part, it seems incomplete, it seems akward, it doesn't feel natural. But also is a problem that the Communist party is at the Nueva Mayoria. Almost nobody likes NM (they don't do too much to avoid this) and some parts of it are really disgusting (PPD I see you).

I don't think that so many people here feel this is an issue, but I really think so.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #170 on: July 03, 2017, 09:42:44 PM »

Funny story, my sister was in the line waiting to cast the vote (in the Verbo Divino School) and she heard an old lady saying to another: "voy a poner que se vayan a la chucha todos los weones" haha, this doesn't have a direct translation and only a Chilean could understand Smiley
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Lumine
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« Reply #171 on: July 08, 2017, 04:31:02 PM »

With a favorable vote of 95% of party councilors the centrist liberal party Amplitud (created after a splinter in RN and the right in 2014) has endorsed Sebastian Piñera as their nominee, thanks in great part due to lobbying by Amplitud Senator Lily Perez, a known ally of the former President.

While Amplitud is still set to run on a parliamentary list with Ciudadanos and not with Chile Vamos, it should aid Piñera on a projected rush towards the political center.
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Lumine
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« Reply #172 on: July 10, 2017, 02:19:41 PM »

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, July 10th:

Bachelet Approval: 25%/64%

Presidential:

Voting Intention (OPEN)

Piñera 30% (+8)
Sanchez 15% (+4)
Guillier 9%
Ossandon 2% (-5)
Goic 1%
J. A. Kast 1%
Parisi 1%
F. Kast 1% (-4)
Others 5%
Undecided 35% (+1)

Voting Intention (likely voters, closed question)

Piñera 30%
Sanchez 21%
Guillier 13%
Parisi 4%
Goic 3%
J. A. Kast 3%
Ominami 2%
Undecided 24%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 66%, Guiller 11%, Sanchez 6%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 16%

Who do you prefer to govern: Chile Vamos 33%, Frente Amplio 18%, Nueva Mayoria 13%, Democracia Cristiana 8%, None/Other 28%,

If you consider coalitions:

Chile Vamos: 34%
Frente Amplio: 15%
Nueva Mayoria: 10%
Others: 6%
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seb_pard
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« Reply #173 on: July 11, 2017, 11:41:56 AM »

A few pages ago I talked about Chile Vamos' parties, now I resume the summary of chilean parties with the Christian Democrats:

Partido Democrata Cristiano



One of the most important parties since the second half of century, although today is in a bad shape. The party is the successor of the Falange Nacional (National Falange), which was founded in 1935 by young militants of the Conservative Party unhappy with the party leadership. They wanted a more serious compromise with the catholic social teaching that they felt they CP didn’t have. They felt that the battle against communism would be lost without a strong compromise for social justice, and they promoted cooperatives and Agrarian reforms. A strong influence was the french Jacques Maritain.

In 1957 they merged with other minor parties and founded the Christian Democratic Party. In the presidential election of 1958, they were represented by their leader Eduardo Frei Montalva, and although lost, he obtained 20.75% of the vote, much better than expected.

Eduardo Frei ran again in 1964 and obtained 56.09% of the vote, with a strong support from a right afraid of an Allende’s victory. Julio Duran, the candidate of the right, received only 4.98% of the vote.


Eduardo Frei Montalva


Frei’s presidency was characterized by the number of reforms made, they accelerated the Agrarian reform started by Alessandri, promoted the civic participation and started the Chilenization of copper. For the 1970 election, the candidate of the party was Radomiro Tomic, a representative of the progressive wing. Tomic received 28.08% and the party supported Allende (in the old Chilean electoral system if a candidate obtained less than 50%, the congress would vote). It should be added that some parts of the party’s youth left the party and founded the MAPU (Popular Unitary Action Movement) and the Christian Left (both supported Allende).

The 70’s was a period of strong polarization in Chile, and DC wasn’t an exception. Most of the leadership was strongly opposed to Allende, but some (leaded by Tomic) were more inclined to an understanding to the government. For the 1973 parliamentary election, the DC ran in an unitary list with the rest of the opposition with the objective of winning enough seats to impeach Allende. And although the won, the lost seats against the Unidad Popular (Allende’s coalition) and couldn’t impeach Allende, but they opposition started a process of boicot against the government and promoted a coup which materialized in September 11th. Most of the party’s leadership supported the coup, with a notable exception which was reflected in a letter written by 13 party leaders (the “grupo de los 13”) in which they condemned the coup.   

The leaders of the party were actually confident that the military  would give them the power after a few days or months, something that didn’t happen. Shortly after months, the party was fully opposed against Pinochet and many members were imprisoned, exiled or forcedly moved to small towns.

In the 80’s the party founded with most of the opposition the Concertación. With the return of democracy, the party leaded the transition, mostly because the military wouldn’t have allowed other parties such the socialists.

During the 90’s the party maintained the leadership of the Concertación (thanks in part to having the president) but after Andres Zaldivar lost the primary against Ricardo Lagos (from the PPD) the country has lost substantial support.

I think the decline of the party started in the 70’s but during Pinochet’s dictatorship this process stalled and reversed in the 90’s an accelerated after that. This is due to many reasons: the party lacks of a concrete ideology, they are pretty big tent, they like to be moderate hero (or amarillos as we called here in Chile) the leadership is too focus in having power than changing the country (contrary to the party’s perception in the 60’s) and all the politics they do is to maintain power. They are seen now as a party obsessed to be in power and they themselves view as a representative of a third of the electorate, a third that no longer exist. The base supposed they represent no longer exist, and when you see the people who is supposed to be their base no longer like them. It’s a process similar to what happened to the Radical Party in before the coup.

Currently the party has 8 senators and 22 deputies and they are stronger in the countryside.
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Lumine
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« Reply #174 on: July 17, 2017, 05:06:44 PM »

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, July 17th:

Bachelet Approval: 25%/64%

Presidential:

Voting Intention (All voters)Sad

Piñera 30%
Sanchez 19%
Guillier 15%
J. A. Kast 4%
Goic 2%
Ominami 2%
Parisi 2%
Undecided 26

Voting Intention (likely voters)Sad

Piñera 40%
Sanchez 23%
Guillier 20%
J. A. Kast 3%
Parisi 3%
Goic 2%
Ominami 2%
Undecided 6%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 63%, Guiller 13%, Sanchez 7%, Goic 1%, Ominami, 1%, Kast 1%, Other/None 14%
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