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Author Topic: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)  (Read 22918 times)
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Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #175 on: July 19, 2017, 12:20:04 pm »
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Is Sánchez having a real rise in support or is this just her consolidating support/having a bump from winning the FA primary?
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There is a lot of humor to be mined from this as the mind of LBJ in the body of an 18 month old baby girl is quite hilarious.

19:08   oakvale   keep your furry horror out of here please

Alfred is the Atlasian equivalent of a malevolent deity.

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« Reply #176 on: July 24, 2017, 11:12:17 am »
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Is Sánchez having a real rise in support or is this just her consolidating support/having a bump from winning the FA primary?

I would have to say the second is looking more likely now. As it stands she's losing ground in the polls again (and has been a bit silent on the past few days) while Guillier recovers some points. It seems the exposure from the primary helped a lot, but it doesn't seem this is a definitive rise in support yet.

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, July 24th:

Bachelet Approval: 26%/61%

Presidential:

Voting Intention (All voters):

Piñera 31%
Sanchez 16%
Guillier 16%
J. A. Kast 4%
Ominami 3%
Goic 2%
Parisi 2%
Undecided 25%

Voting Intention (likely voters):

Piñera 40%
Sanchez 21%
Guillier 21%
J. A. Kast 4%
Parisi 2%
Goic 2%
Ominami 2%
Undecided 8%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 65%, Guiller 14%, Sanchez 9%, Goic 1%, Parisi 1%, Other/None 10%
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seb_pard
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« Reply #177 on: July 31, 2017, 07:27:04 pm »
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DC is in middle of a political crisis. Last saturday was the party's Junta Nacional (National Conference?)  where they voted for the political candidates. The thing is that they had two choices: To approve the whole parliamentary list or vote by district. Goic supported the latter because Ricardo Rincon (current deputy, now candidate for Senate) was in the preliminary list. It was discovered that Rincon was found guilty of domestic abuse in 2002 (his partner had physical injuries). Currently gender-based violence is one of the most important issues discused in the country and our society is increasingly (fortunately) less tolerant to these cases, and there was a strong campaign (leaded by Goic) to avoid a Rincon candidacy. Well, the preliminary list was approved.


Goic said that now she is evaluating her candidacy and she will announce her decision in the following days. The image of the party is in the floor, it is really sad to see (although they deserve it).



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"Please, do not put on the blindfold, but kill me facing forward, because I have nothing to hide.  Kill me to my face, so that I can see you and forgive you" Joan Alsina, Spanish priest, murdered by the chilean state in 1973.
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« Reply #178 on: August 03, 2017, 10:13:30 pm »
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Well, Goic announced today that she is going to resume the campaign and she will use her attribution as party leader (given by the chilean electoral service) to prevent a Rincon candidacy.
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"Please, do not put on the blindfold, but kill me facing forward, because I have nothing to hide.  Kill me to my face, so that I can see you and forgive you" Joan Alsina, Spanish priest, murdered by the chilean state in 1973.
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« Reply #179 on: August 04, 2017, 09:19:14 pm »
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Franco Parisi drops out (to run for Senate instead), Guillier finally presents about 60,000 signatures to confirm his candidacy. Field currently as follows:

Cleared to enter the first round:

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Chile Vamos)
Senator Alejandro Guiller (Nueva Mayoria)
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (Frente Amplio)

Senator Carolina Goic (Democracia Cristiana)
Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO)
Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Independent)
Eduardo Artes (Union Patriotica)

Not yet cleared to enter:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais)
Roxana Miranda (ANDHA)
Nicolas Shea (Todos)
Abraham Larrondo (Independent)
Carola Canelo (Independent)
Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (Independent)
Marcel Claude (Independent)

(Note: All of those who haven't reached the first round yet are doubtful to do so, probably a couple or three at best will manage to gather the signatures)
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seb_pard
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« Reply #180 on: August 07, 2017, 06:58:31 am »
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It amazes me that someone like Eduardo Artes achieved the necessary signatures to become a presidential candidate. That shows the fragmentation in the chilean left, it reminds me of France.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2017, 07:07:29 am by seb_pard »Logged

"Please, do not put on the blindfold, but kill me facing forward, because I have nothing to hide.  Kill me to my face, so that I can see you and forgive you" Joan Alsina, Spanish priest, murdered by the chilean state in 1973.
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« Reply #181 on: August 11, 2017, 11:15:48 am »
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Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, August 7th:

Bachelet Approval: 26%/64%

Presidential:

Voting Intention (All voters):

Piñera 39%
Sanchez 18%
Guillier 15%
Goic 5%
J. A. Kast 3%
Parisi 3%
Ominami 2%
Undecided 24%

Voting Intention (likely voters):

Piñera 40%
Sanchez 20%
Guillier 20%
Goic 6%
J. A. Kast 3%
Ominami 2%
Parisi 1%
Undecided 8%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 67%, Guiller 11%, Sanchez 7%, Goic 1%, Parisi 1%, J. A. Kast 1%, Other/None 12%
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« Reply #182 on: August 19, 2017, 11:39:39 pm »
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Several of the less hopeful candidates drop out as there's only two days left to present the signatures (Jocelyn-Holt and Shea included), and with eight candidates currently cleared for the first round it seems unlikely the field will grow larger than that:

Cleared to enter the first round:

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Chile Vamos)
Senator Alejandro Guiller (Nueva Mayoria)
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (Frente Amplio)
Senator Carolina Goic (Democracia Cristiana)
Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO)
Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Independent)
Eduardo Artes (Union Patriotica)
Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais)

Not yet cleared to enter:

Roxana Miranda (ANDHA)
Carola Canelo (Independent)
Marcel Claude (Independent)

So you'd have Kast (conservative right), Piñera (center-right), Goic (center to center-left), Guillier (social-democratic left), Ominami (progressive left), Navarro ("boliviarian" style left), Sanchez (student-aligned left) and Artes (hardcore left). Usually it doesn't really matter to see many left-wing candidates, but unlike 2013 the left is really fragmented this time around.

While Piñera does have to worry about Kast taking quite a few of his voters on the first round, he is not going to be outflanked from the center (certainly not with Goic polling badly). He seems to consolidate as a favorite to win, much more than what it looked like by the start of the year.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #183 on: August 21, 2017, 07:26:50 pm »
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Some updates from the south:

-Abortion: Finally Abortion is legal again in Chile. El Constitutional Court denied the protests from the opposition so now we no longer have one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the world. Abortion is now legal in the following cases:
            1. When the woman's life is in danger.
            2. When the fetus is not viable.
            3. In the case of rape.

These are babies steps but overall is very good news if you see the law we had. Abortion was legal since 1931 for medical reasons but Pinochet banned in 1989.



-Migration: The government sent today a new abortion law proposal to be discussed and voted in congress. A migration reform is needed because the current law (created by Pinochet in 1974) has become a serious problem with the current immigration rate. Some migration NGOs and communities has criticized the the government's hermetic attitude with respect to this law (a problem I think Bachelet has).

Immigration to Chile has increased in the last years, particularly from Haiti, Venezuela, Colombia and Dominican Republic. This is a new thing in Chile (in the last decade migration was mainly from Peru and Bolivia, two neighbors) but I think the country has reacted very well, but the current law is unsustainable with the current rate of migration (restrictive and bureaucratic).



-Frente Amplio: The Frente Amplio embarrassed themselves last week. Alberto Mayol (former presidential candidate) said through to the press a few weeks ago that he wanted to run as a deputy candidate in the 10th District (Giorgio Jackson's district and the strongest Frente Amplio district). He wanted to run in Democratic Revolution ticket but they offered the Equality Party district. And then all went dark. According to Natalia Castillo (other RD candidate in 10th district) Mayol asked to withdraw her candidacy for him. Obviously she rejected that (although Mayol denied doing this).

Then all went dark. In the FA was uncomfortable with the way Mayol acted (they had all ready) but he pushed through the press (he is an expert in communications) and this was seen as the FA was doing everything to protect Jackson and screw Mayol. Last week FA decided to forbid Mayol to run as FA candidate because he sent some whatsapp audios to Jackson and Castillo. The FA board accused him of gender violence (a big mistake, because he was nasty, but against the two). Then came all the press and political parties attacking the FA for doing this. Finally they offer again the Equality Party spot and he accepted.

All this damaged the FA a lot. Honestly I think Mayol was nasty, he showed his real clothes but the coalition show how poorly prepared they are. They are used to college politics and doesn't have any frustration tolerance. The same old left...
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"Please, do not put on the blindfold, but kill me facing forward, because I have nothing to hide.  Kill me to my face, so that I can see you and forgive you" Joan Alsina, Spanish priest, murdered by the chilean state in 1973.
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« Reply #184 on: August 31, 2017, 11:35:48 am »
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The economic team of the government resigned today, including both the Finance and the Economy ministers. It's going from bad to worse for Bachelet...
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seb_pard
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« Reply #185 on: September 02, 2017, 01:10:18 pm »
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I honestly think this was a good thing for Bachelet. Valdes was a liability for the government, no one was happy with him (I can't stand him) and he was ideologically against with the policies of the government.

The reason of the resignation was due to the rejection of a mining project called Dominga (they were in favor, Bachelet and the rest were against). I think the right think was to reject the project, All the news talked about to be in favor of economic growth, give certainty to the private sector but no one talk about if this project complied with the legislation, and besides that, there is a corruption scandal associated with the permissions granted with this project.

I am in favor of economic growth (it's important), but I am against in eliminating laws and lowering taxes to increase short term growth thus sacrificing long term growth.

Besides all mentioned, Nicolas Eyzaguirre (former Treasury minister of Lagos and one of my favorite chilean politicians) return to the economic team Cheesy.

In the short term this is bad for Bachelet, in the long term is very good.
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"Please, do not put on the blindfold, but kill me facing forward, because I have nothing to hide.  Kill me to my face, so that I can see you and forgive you" Joan Alsina, Spanish priest, murdered by the chilean state in 1973.
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« Reply #186 on: September 02, 2017, 01:13:15 pm »
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A picture of Nicolas Eyzaguirre from an interview for the left-wing magazine The Clinic. I love this picture.
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"Please, do not put on the blindfold, but kill me facing forward, because I have nothing to hide.  Kill me to my face, so that I can see you and forgive you" Joan Alsina, Spanish priest, murdered by the chilean state in 1973.
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« Reply #187 on: September 02, 2017, 06:30:56 pm »
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A gift to forum members, this is a speech by Pedro Aguirre Cerda, chilean president between 1938 and 1941 (he died in office) who is considered by many as one of the greatest presidents of our history. It's only two minutes and although is in spanish, has subtitles (but in spanish haha). This is a great piece of chilean history. I'm gonna try to translate the speech.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRfUvTP-frY

His article on wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedro_Aguirre_Cerda
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"Please, do not put on the blindfold, but kill me facing forward, because I have nothing to hide.  Kill me to my face, so that I can see you and forgive you" Joan Alsina, Spanish priest, murdered by the chilean state in 1973.
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« Reply #188 on: September 02, 2017, 07:11:09 pm »
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My translation of the speech:

To governs is to educate, and with this strong concept I will take advantage of all the strength the state can have to awake the constructive spirit of organization and perseverance that the national collective so badly needs, and I will rectify the neglected state of the public education that has left us a high percentage of illiterates in an age that the adult intervenes in unions, associations and other multiple activities that require culture and patriotic understanding.

The producer must be protected, but as such it is not understandable the one that puts the capital on interest to remain personally inactive, or the one who speculates with ignorance and misery.

It is a duty to work based on the sacred contribution that every individual aware of his/her duties must give to the community in a direct and personal way. And we will seek to give exclusive benefits to all elements of the society that give their tribute to their homeland, either a humble worker or the highest researcher or scientist.

Working is indispensable to the physical, moral and intellectual health of the citizen and we will ask you to establish the right to work as a corollary of the duty to work.  In this I deliberately include women, who will not have maternal obligations to fulfill. Women must be incorporated actively into the national life, and enjoy all the civil and political rights the men have.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2017, 07:13:37 pm by seb_pard »Logged

"Please, do not put on the blindfold, but kill me facing forward, because I have nothing to hide.  Kill me to my face, so that I can see you and forgive you" Joan Alsina, Spanish priest, murdered by the chilean state in 1973.
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« Reply #189 on: September 10, 2017, 04:27:42 pm »
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Vote intention by socio-economic class




Blue: Upper class
Light green: Middle class
Dark green: Lower class
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"Please, do not put on the blindfold, but kill me facing forward, because I have nothing to hide.  Kill me to my face, so that I can see you and forgive you" Joan Alsina, Spanish priest, murdered by the chilean state in 1973.
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« Reply #190 on: September 10, 2017, 07:39:28 pm »
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New polls!

Cadem:

Piñera 42%
Guillier 18%
Sanchez 17%
J. A. Kast 4%
Goic 4%
Ominami 1%
Navarro 1%
Artes 1%
Undecided 12%

CEP:

Piñera 39.8%
Guillier 18.1%
Sanchez 17.9%
Goic 5.4%
J. A. Kast 3.4%
Ominami 1.8%
Navarro 0%
Artes 0%
Undecided 10.8%

Adimark:

Piñera 34%
Guillier 16%
Sanchez 15%
Goic 5%
J. A. Kast 2%
Ominami 1%
Navarro 0%
Artes 0%
Undecided 27%
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« Reply #191 on: October 16, 2017, 11:53:14 am »
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About another month of campaign has passed, and believe it or not, it has been incredibly boring. Piñera retains his lead as Guillier re-emerges as his main contender, Sanchez and the FA steadily losing support as they continue to run a rather disappointing campaign.

With about a month left to go, here is the latest poll, released today:

Cadem: Likely Voters

Piñera 43%
Guillier 20%
Sanchez 13%
J. A. Kast 5%
Goic 4%
Ominami 4%
Navarro 0%
Artes 0%
Undecided 11%

Cadem: All Voters

Piñera 34%
Guillier 15%
Sanchez 12%
J. A. Kast 4%
Goic 4%
Ominami 4%
Navarro 0%
Artes 0%
Undecided 27%

Cadem: Runoff Scencarios:

Piñera 51%
Guillier 36%
Undecided 13%

Piñera 53%
Sanchez 33%
Undecided 14%

Piñera 51%
Goic 27%
Undecided 22%

Piñera 54%
Ominami 22%
Undecided 24%

Piñera 50%
J. A. Kast 14%
Undecided 26%
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« Reply #192 on: October 22, 2017, 12:18:26 pm »
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Another weekly poll:

Cadem: Likely Voters

Piñera 42%
Guillier 21%
Sanchez 13%
J. A. Kast 5%
Goic 5%
Ominami 3%
Navarro 1%
Artes 0%
Undecided 10%

Cadem: Runoff:

Piñera 47%
Guillier 42%
Undecided 11%
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« Reply #193 on: November 12, 2017, 11:55:59 am »
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I haven't updated this closely because, well, it's been a rather dull and boring campaign. Piñera retains his strong lead in the polls no whatever what attacks are launched against him, and the center-left to left candidates are engaged in all-out war to reach the second round. Marco Enriquez-Ominami has been particularly vocal in taking down Guillier, so much that there are clues that he might do much better than expected in the first round.

With a week to go (and proyections of a deeply divided Congress), this was the final Cadem poll before the two-week polling blackout:

Cadem: Likely Voters

Piñera 45%
Guillier 23%
Sanchez 14%
J. A. Kast 6%
Goic 6%
Ominami 5%
Navarro 0,5%
Artes 0,5%

Cadem: Run-Off

Piñera v. Guillier:
Piñera 50%
Guillier 38%

Piñera v. Sanchez:
Piñera 51%
Sanchez 36%

Piñera v. Kast:
Piñera 49%
J. A. Kast 18%

Piñera v. Goic:
Piñera 50%
Goic 31%

Piñera v. Ominami:
Piñera 51%
Ominami 29%
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« Reply #194 on: November 15, 2017, 06:08:15 pm »
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Widespread shock today as Senator Fulvio Rossi (expelled from the Socialists some time ago and now seeking reelection as an independent) was attacked today morning, being stabbed in the abdomen. He is in a grave condition but in no vital risk, and there's a significant degree of speculation as to why he was attacked (some of his supporters point to his harsh stance on illegal immigration, some, like a Communist Deputy, imply it was a self-inflicted or planned attack).
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« Reply #195 on: November 15, 2017, 07:26:30 pm »
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Seems like Piñera will win in a landslide. Any chance he wins in the first round by getting more than 50%?
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« Reply #196 on: November 15, 2017, 09:38:53 pm »
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Seems like Piñera will win in a landslide. Any chance he wins in the first round by getting more than 50%?

It's possible, but unlikely, Kast should draw several right-wing voters away from Piñera and the whole matter depends strongly on turnout. If turnout is unusually low then Piñera has a chance to win on the first round (as polls show his supporters are far more committed to show up), and if turnout was to be higher than 50% or so then I'd say his chances of outright victory are very low.

As to a second round, it all depends on the distance with his main challenger (probably Guillier). If the difference is greater than 15% experts believe Piñera will win without problems. If it's less than 15%, Piñera could still lose the second round if the left unites against him.
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« Reply #197 on: November 15, 2017, 09:42:40 pm »
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Can't near-a the Piñera?
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Because Gillibrand sig is too mainstream

A note:

The fascist Kalwejt has once again deleted a whole thread I made in the International board today.
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« Reply #198 on: November 18, 2017, 01:36:46 pm »
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I'm very depressed with this election, and still undecided about my choice for tomorrow (probably Guillier). I think the odds of Piñera getting over 50% in the first-round are near 0, I really can't see (despite that he will win the runoff).

Tomorrow I will vote for president, deputy and Core (regional council), my choices are:

-President: Leaning Guillier
-Deputy: Fernando Atria, from the Socialist Party, constitutional lawyer and part of the wing of the PS that is in favor of a closer relationship with the Frente Amplio. I'm actually very happy for this vote, and I convinced some people to vote for him! Cheesy. My district is very right wing (and the wealthiest in the country) but I think Atria is the best candidate to get the left-wing vote here.
-CORE: Marco Undurraga, from the Socialist Party, he is an english teacher for a engineering company and he is the finance chair of the company union. I really don't know his chances but I feel comfortable of voting for him.

The first result are coming in like 10 hours, from Australia and New Zealand, so probably before the opening of polls here we are going to see some results.

The map of the vote from abroad:
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"Please, do not put on the blindfold, but kill me facing forward, because I have nothing to hide.  Kill me to my face, so that I can see you and forgive you" Joan Alsina, Spanish priest, murdered by the chilean state in 1973.
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« Reply #199 on: November 18, 2017, 01:59:26 pm »
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3 chilean schools did a mock election this week. The results are the following:



The background of the communes (all from Santiago):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peñalolén
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Bernardo,_Chile
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puente_Alto
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"Please, do not put on the blindfold, but kill me facing forward, because I have nothing to hide.  Kill me to my face, so that I can see you and forgive you" Joan Alsina, Spanish priest, murdered by the chilean state in 1973.
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