Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 21, 2019, 06:01:56 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Blind Jaunting)
  Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%) (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)  (Read 31104 times)
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« on: November 19, 2017, 05:30:58 pm »

Any exit polls on how a Piñera vs Guillier second round would look like ?
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2017, 05:47:01 pm »

It is interesting that we went from 2% of the vote counted to 33% yet the rough ratio of votes between Piñera, Guillier, and Sánchez are mostly constant.  Are there some large urban areas (like Santiago) which are reporting much slower or much faster than the country as a whole.  If not then I suspect what we have now will be the results. 
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2017, 05:52:47 pm »

With 2.14% of polling stations (125k votes)

Piñera 36,6%
Guillier 22,2%
Sánchez 20,2%
Kast 8,4%
Goic 6,1%
MEO 5,5%


If this results keep at this way... then Guillier is a favourite to runoff? And MEO main function in election was to take Sánchez out of runoff?

Why would that be?  Would not Piñera pick up the Kast and Goic votes on the second round?  I must be missing something.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2017, 06:02:36 pm »

Is it just me, or has Piñera been very slowly creeping up in the vote?

Edit: As I say this, I just realized we have been stuck at 43% for a while.
We have 53% now Cheesy

Yeah, but the vote shares stay virtually unchanged. 
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2017, 09:06:36 am »

https://www.cooperativa.cl/noticias/pais/politica/presidenciales/encuesta-criteria-research-pinera-51-y-guillier-46-/2017-11-30/072637.html

Criteria Research Survey: Piñera 51% Guillier 46%
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #5 on: December 17, 2017, 04:02:35 pm »

Any exit polls ?
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2017, 04:06:09 pm »

Polls now start to close, you can check official results here:

http://www.servelelecciones.cl



If there are international counts already why does this link show zero votes for both candidates ?
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #7 on: December 17, 2017, 04:47:48 pm »

With over 560K votes counted in Chile Piñera is ahead 54-46 in Chile.  Go Piñera ..
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2017, 04:55:05 pm »

Guillier is doing reasonably well in Santiago where if that were the trend it would be neck-to-neck.  He has to hope that is a trend and that other results have a Piñera lean to them ..
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2017, 04:58:38 pm »

Even in Santiago it is now Piñera ahead 51.6 vs 48.4. 
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2017, 05:57:46 pm »

Looks like the number of voters increased from the first round.  So it does not seems like marginal Sánchez not voting that gave  Piñera the victory.  It seems it is more about defections from Goic first round voters.    And even that does not seem to be enough to explain this large Piñera victory.  I guess there must have been defections from Sánchez and even perhaps Enríquez-Ominami first round voters, as hard it is to believe plus some marginal non-voters in the first round coming out to stop Guillier.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #11 on: December 17, 2017, 06:45:33 pm »

It seems Piñera got almost 850K more votes than Piñera+Kast got in the first round.  Some of it are marginal Center-Right voters but a lot of it must be from defections of the Center and Center-Left candidates from the first round.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC