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Author Topic: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)  (Read 27601 times)
seb_pard
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« on: October 24, 2016, 08:17:20 pm »

A scenario between Lagos and Piñera is just so sad to me, it's very painful to watch the political process right now in the country, specially from the left. Although I think this is Piñera's election to lose, the Nueva Mayoria is close to dead (the only thing that unify them is they have too many people dependent on government jobs) and all UDI leaders know that he is the only one from the right that can win (maybe Ossandon, but I think that once he starts to speak, his unfavorability will increase), despite they hate Piñera.

Although the economy is not in its best shape (last year's growth was 2.3% and the forecast for 2016 is 1.7%), Bachelet's disapproval is mainly explained by the government scandals, specially the Caval scandal. Lumine what do you think about this case? I think this really killed Bachelet politically, and since then, she is just waiting for the end of her government.

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seb_pard
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2016, 06:08:26 pm »

This question may be a bit off topic, but i think it's interesting. Why did turnout in Chilean elections collapsed after the end of the mandatory vote?
I think there is two reasons:

1. The main reason is that people don't care to vote. When it was mandatory many people didn't wanted to vote but they registered during the 90's when the we had a lot of enthusiasm because of the return to democracy, but people increasingly started to distrust political institutions and many don't even care about participating in politics. This is just anecdotal, but my girlfriend is from Providencia, and she liked Josefa Errazuriz a lot but didn't vote on sunday because she had to do other things and though it was too much effort to vote (to me that is just terrible) and my best friend recently moved with his girlfriend, and he told me that he wasn't interested in going to his old commune to vote for mayor and council. People are lazy.

2. Another reason that is increasingly important is that we have issues with the electoral roll and contains many people that are dead. This underestimate the turnout.  
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 06:14:30 pm by seb_pard »Logged

seb_pard
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« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2017, 01:54:13 pm »

Piñera is making a comeback? There's an unusual bright spot.
He always has been the candidate with the higher chances to win this year since 2014, due to a mix of unpopularity of the current government and the fact that he is the only politician of Chile Vamos with a chance of winning the general election (although a significant part of his the coalition hate him).

In any case, I think his chances of being elected are falling due to the rise of Guillier, and I believe we are gonna see a competitive election in November.
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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2017, 02:05:23 pm »

Y
Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, January 16th:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/66%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 2%, Ominami 1%, Parisi 1%, Farkas 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 41%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 40%, Guiller 28%, Lagos 4%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 27%

Piñera/Guillier round:

Men: 24/23
Women: 22/23

Young (18-34): 27/18
Adult (35-54): 23/23
Old (55-): 20/32

Upper Class: 32/26
Middle Class: 22/26
Lower Class: 19/21

Santiago: 22/26
Regions: 24/22

Catholic: 23/26
Evangelic/Protestant: 30/20
Atheist/Agnostic: 20/21

In General:

  • A small crisis erupts in the new Frente Amplio as Gabriel Boric and others issue a veto on Senator Alejandro Navarro (a former Bachelet and Nueva Mayoria supporter) to run on the Frente Amplio primaries, leading Navarro's Partido Pais to suspend its participation on the new coalition. Around the same time, activist Luis Mesina confirms he will not run for President, eliminating two of the likely nominees for the new leftist coalition.
  • Tensions rise in Chile Vamos as Evopoli and Felipe Kast promote their new government program of 130 measures, which has come under flak by RN, UDI and PRI for being overtly liberal on several issues (including gay marriage). The negotiations for the parliamentary elections also raise potential conflicts, as PRI and Evopoli demand an equal share of candidates and RN and UDI believe they deserve more candidates due to their larger results.
  • Feeling himself on a strong position after gaining the PPD nomination, Former President Lagos announces that he will not take part of a primary in the Partido Socialista (PS). In response, the PS appears now determined to hold primaries in April to choose a nominee for the Nueva Mayoria primaries in July, a battle between Fernando Atria and Jose Miguel Insulza which sees many in the PS dreaming of Guillier after sensing his electoral appeal.
  • And the number of independent candidates rises, as 2013 candidate Franco Parisi is offered to run for President by the centrist-regionalist party Democracia Regional Patagonica, signaling a comeback for the candidate after scoring more than 10% in the last election and, at one point, being feared by the Chilean right as a candidate who could have ended up in the second round.
Youth that didn't know Pinochet's regime is more Piñeira supporting than Guillier. Are they waiting for a more left-wing candidate or they're more conservative than their parents?
The main reason Piñera is winning the youth vote is because most people under 30 (and probably under 35) doesn't care a thing about politics, and turnout in this cohort is very, very low (is higher in the higher classes, which are very right wing here). Besides that, the Concertación/Nueva Mayoria brand in the youth is dead. I believe the majority of the young people (including me) are left-wing, but being a leftie in Chile is a very broad concept and the hate between the different groups is very high (a sad situation).

Probably I'm gonna vote for the Frente Amplio candidate (Claudia Sanhueza maybe?) in the first round, and if the runn-off is between Piñera and Guillier, blank maybe. Although if Guillier doesn't succumb to a very populist message (anti-immigrant rhetoric is my biggest fear) I would vote for him (I just can't accept Piñera returning to power).

Very good job Lumine.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2017, 11:59:35 am »

Absolutely great updates, Lumine, thank you so much.

I know Israel is very unpopular in many South American countries and that Chile has quite a sizeable Palestinian community, but are there any candidates/parties in Chile that are pro-Israel?
Most of the jewish politicians are pro Israel, but I think they try not to comment too much to avoid the bullying from pro-palestinian people (very annoying), but I don't think the parties are too vocal about this.

One important thing is that the palestinian in Chile are generally middle to upper class, so they are represented across all parties (for example Jadue from the Communist Party, Tarud from the PPD, Hasbun from UDI, etc.)
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seb_pard
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« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2017, 12:05:46 pm »

Probably I'm gonna vote for the Frente Amplio candidate (Claudia Sanhueza maybe?) in the first round, and if the runn-off is between Piñera and Guillier, blank maybe. Although if Guillier doesn't succumb to a very populist message (anti-immigrant rhetoric is my biggest fear) I would vote for him (I just can't accept Piñera returning to power).

Very good job Lumine.

Thanks, seb_pard! I would appreciate your insight regarding the left and particularly the Frente Amplio, my knowledge is rather limited there (I never considered Sanhueza for example, although she does seem a long shot). My condolences for the ongoing situation of the left, I am often very frustrated at the divisions on the right and the constant antics and stupidity often displayed by the UDI, but the left has like 20 different parties now and may end up divided in three or four coalitions at this rate.

I fully expect a competitive election between Piñera and Guillier (I cannot believe how Guillier rises so fast without opening his mouth), seeing as the Frente Amplio will probably go to the polls divided and Sentido Futuro appears to be dead in the water.

I'm not involved too much in the left, but I have a lot of friends who are very active in some parties (I studied in the catholic university between 2009 and 2013 and there I met many members from the NAU (basically the origin of Revolución Democratica).

I think the main issue that bring so many division to the political field between coalitions is the 'Caudillo' nature of our politics (which is very strong in the mayoral election, but also on MEO, Parisi, etc.)
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« Reply #6 on: February 03, 2017, 04:02:07 pm »

I found a very interesting map on the Congress' Library. It's the educational and economic level by Censal district of Metropolitan Region (where Santiago is)



Basically Blue is highest level and red is lowest. The info is from 2002, so is a bit outdated, but I don't think that this scenario has changed too much.
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« Reply #7 on: March 03, 2017, 12:17:28 pm »

Some news from the left:

Yesterday, Alberto Mayol (a Sociology Professor and a fairly known political analyst here) announced his intention to run as a presidential candidate from the Broad Front. He has the support from Nueva Izquierda (New Left, a political party founded by former communist and copper union leader Cristian Cuevas). As far as I know, FA parties have until March 20th to propose candidates to run in the primaries in June 6th.
 
The potential candidates are the following:
Democratic Revolution: They are analyzing between Sebastian Depolo (the party’s president) and Claudia Sanhueza (economist and former communist, she participated in Bachelet’s electoral platform).
Autonomous Left: Carlos Ruiz, an academic, he has a strong influence in the movement, but he is not known to the general population. I don’t think he has a chance.
Power: They are promoting Luis Mesina as candidate. He is the leader of the No+AFP movement (a movement which aims to end the current Chilean pension system and reestablish a state-funded one).
 
I think the chances of a FA presidential victory are slim, but if they make an interesting primary campaign they could aim to obtain 15%-20%.
 
On the congressional part, FA aims to get 1 deputy per district (28 diputados). They currently have 3 (Giorgio Jackson, Gabriel Boric and Vlado Mirosevic). I think they could succeed, but they have to put an effort in the more rural parts of Chile (particularly in the south) which the Nueva Mayoria is still strong (on the left-on-center side). Another issue is that the Communist Party is going to run as part of NM, and unfortunately I think that situation could split the left electorate that is undecided between the Communist Party and some parties from the FA (e.g me).
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2017, 09:16:33 pm »

Some news worth to tell:
-It was published last week that Piñera avoided CLP 44 billions (66 Million dollars) though the purchase of zombie companies, which registered larges amount of losses. I don't think this is gonna hurt him, but is an additional episode of a long history of unethical behaviour.
-Today was published that Bachelet youngest daughter has a lot near a place that a mining company has a project. Why is this news? The project was rejected a few weeks ago by regional authorities (although from what I know the project complied with the law and the rejection is due to some political rift, but that has nothing to do with Bachelet's daughter). I believe there is no story here, she has the lot since 2012 and is really small, but is going to hurt Bachelet I think. Nevertheless, this speaks very badly about Bachelet, because her daughter is just 24 years old and is not normal here for someone young to have land.
-Tomorrow the Broad Front will publish the list of congressional candidates. 
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« Reply #9 on: March 28, 2017, 07:38:39 pm »

Frente Amplio:
(RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others)

Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Preparing a run

RD Chairman Sebastian Depolo (RD) - Speculative
Activist Luis Mesina (No+AFP's) - Speculative
Economist Claudia Sanhueza (RD) - Speculative
Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Sanhueza and Depolo declined to run after Sanchez announced her decision.

Btw last weekend I went to the beach and there were many Jose Antonio Kast Signs, I don't think that would translate to votes, but he is actually very serious in this venture.

Guiller has had some bad weeks, specially after Piñera's campaign launch and some bad headlines in the media.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2017, 07:40:24 pm by seb_pard »Logged

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« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2017, 04:49:16 pm »

What little I've read about Pinera is that he's kind of a goof and not a great politician. Is he the only candidate on the right with the caliber enough to run for President?
For the moment, yes, I think he is the only one on the right with real chances to win. He is son of a DC politician (Jose Piñera) and voted No on the 1988 referendum, so he isn't your typical right wing Pinochet supporter. I heard once that even he joined RN because in DC  he wasn't chosen to run as Senator (is a rumor, but I think there is some truth in that). He is loathed in the some sectors of the right (particularly in UDI) but they know he is their only chance to return to La Moneda.

Is important to note that  although he is very goofy and looks very awkward he is a very talented politician. His  real weakness are his investments, he suffers financial incontinence.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2017, 05:07:38 pm by seb_pard »Logged

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« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2017, 05:21:04 pm »

Parisi is a joke candidate and should be treated like that. I honestly believe that his campaign is a ponzi scheme to collect the post-election refund.
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« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2017, 05:36:38 pm »

Wow, how come Lagos is doing so terribly?
Uff, he is a figure of the old Concertacion. He is very respected but he is a candidate of an older left (and also he is too egocentric) that doesn't have a base. The Concertacion is viewed by most people on the left as too right wing, they basically made policies that a right wing government could make. Obviously there is a reason (Pinochet and the constitution...) but now the left want policies that could tackle our concerns and Lagos is not a candidate that offered that. We was bit like a figure of order, he hadn't fresh ideas that couldn't remind us of his government and the typical "Policy of agreements" that is loathed by the left-of-center electorate. Also Lagos was viewed as very liked by the business organizations.

I think the reactions after he loss against Guillier the endorsement of the PS reaffirms the above. All the "leaders of opinion", the typical establishment journalist, the DC and the right wing lamented the result and commented that this was a evidence of anarchy and whatever. He needs to retire.



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« Reply #13 on: April 16, 2017, 05:41:57 pm »

Wow, how come Lagos is doing so terribly?

Too old. Not because of age itself, but because Lagos has fully become a figure of the past seen as too outdated to lead the country. Add to that the fact that his reputation has tanked from the heights of 2006 because of corruption cases that took place under his government, the flak of the Transantiago transport system, and the fact that with Chilean politics having moved to the left Lagos is not seen as a credible candidate for the left by many, particularly younger votes.

Lagos showed he is still a brilliant political operation due to how effective he was at eliminating virtually the entire primary field of Nueva Mayoria minus Goic and Guillier (a very successful "scorched earth" strategy from his point of view), but he has stopped being a credible candidate. That's why he didn't manage to catch on, and why PS dropped him like a rock to back the candidate who was polling better.
Also is very interesting that for the older concertacionista voter Guillier is a very good candidate, probably they make the 25% support he has (opinion based on my family actually haha)
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« Reply #14 on: May 13, 2017, 11:17:17 pm »

Latest poll from Cadem 3-5 May

Piñera 24% (+2)
Guillier 15% (-1)
Sánchez 8% (+2)
Ossandón 4% (-)
Goic 3% (+1)
Parisi 2% (-1)
F. Kast 1% (-)
Enríquez-Ominami 1% (+1)

http://plazapublica.cl/wp-content/uploads/Track-PP173-Mayo-S1-VF.pdf

Looks to me like Sanchez is catching up with Guillier. I know that there's a long way to go but do Chilean forum members think that a Pinera/Sanchez second round is likely?

I think right now she has a real possibility to go against Piñera in the second run. You really have to think that the crisis in the New Majority is really deep, and from what I seen, many people are really thinking about voting for her, and I'm not talking about the typical left voter that doesn't like "sellouts", but about the typical concertacionista voter that has been loyal during these years. They don't hate Guillier (he has a strong credibility due to his participation in Tolerancia Cero, and was viewed as a very serious journalist with a clear center-left view) but are really tired of all the scandals the New Majority has gone through.

I should add that the chilean press (which is pretty right wing and very concentrated in a few actors) has been very positive about Beatriz Sanchez and also some politicians from the right. I think that is a dangerous game from them, because I believe they think she is unelectable but I really don't think that is entirely true. The chilean electorate is pretty left wing and most of the people don't see Beatriz Sanchez as an extremist (unlike Roxana Miranda, for example).
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« Reply #15 on: May 13, 2017, 11:23:34 pm »

I'm planning to write about Chilean political parties and a description of the country and political districts, but I'm very busy studying for my CFA exam level II, but I except to start writing some summaries about the parties. Luminee, it could be great if you do this with me.

The following is a short summary I wrote about chilean politics, made especially for those who doesn't know very much about the country.

Chile is a presidential republic. The country is very centralized and the regions (15 in total) have little power (even the Intendents, head of every region, are appointed by the President). We have a bicameral congress, composed by a Senate (38 seats), and the Chamber of Deputies (120 seats), both located in Valparaiso. Since 1990 the legislative districts have remained unchanged, with 18 senatorial circumscriptions (2 senators each) and 60 districts (2 deputies each). The electoral system, called Sistema Binominal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_voting) has had a great influence on Chile’s political development in the last 25 years, and ended up consolidating a political system with 2 big coalitions, marginalizing other political groups with a sizable support.

We have an electoral reform last year, ending the Binominal system. Our new parliamentary will function as follow: The chamber of deputies will be composed of 150 deputies (an increase of 30) while districts have declined to 28 (each choosing between 3 and 8 deputies, using a D’hont system). In the case of the Senate, it will have 60 members and 15 circumscriptions (one per region each choosing between 2 and 5 senators).

The above-mentioned reform, long awaited by a large chunk of the population, will have a great impact on the political development of Chile. It could even be said that the DC’s decision to go directly to the presidential elections (instead of primaries) is the first evidence of a new political landscape.

Chile has a turbulent (but very interesting) political history, but due to the many things we’ve gone through, is better to analyze here our post-Pinochet politics.

Since 1990, in Chile we have seen two big coalitions, the Concertación (now New Majority), composed by several center left parties (and now the communists and other minor parties) and the Alianza (now Chile Vamos), historically composed by the UDI and RN (now also Evopoli and the PRI). To analyze Chile’s political countries is a little futile if you don’t take in account the important role these coalitions have played, and sometimes.

The current President is Michelle Bachelet, a physician and socialist politician which is in her second non-consecutive period with a deep crisis within her coalition, the New Majority.

The 38-member senate has the following composition:
New Majority (21)
DC (Christian Democrats, center to center left) – 7
PS (Socialist Party, center left) – 6
PPD (Party for Democracy, center left) – 6
MAS (Broad Social Movement, left) – 1
1 Independent (Alejandro Guillier, current presidential candidate).

Chile Vamos (14)
UDI (Independent Democratic Union, right wing) – 7
RN (National Renewal, center right) – 6
1 Independent (Jaime Orpis).

Other groups
Patagonial Regional Democracy (Big tent)– 1
Amplitud (center right) – 1
1 without party (Antonio Horvarth, from Aysen, former RN).

The 120-member chamber of deputies has the following composition:
New Majority (67)
DC – 20
PS – 16
PPD – 14
PRSD (Radical Social Democratic Party, center left) – 6
PC (Communist Party, left wing) – 6
IC (Citizen left, left wing) – 1
4 independents.

Chile Vamos ( 47)
UDI – 27
RN – 13
Evopoli (Political Evolution, center right) – 1
6 independents

Broad Front (left wing) (3)
1 from the Liberal Party, 1 from RD (Democratic Revolution, left wing) and 1 from Autonomous Left.

Amplitud have 2 deputies and Miras (Regional and Agrarian Independent Movement, the political vehicle of Alejandra Sepulveda) has 1.

(Please correct me about any spelling mistake, I have a very bad spanish and a worst english, so, any chance to improve is welcome!).
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« Reply #16 on: May 14, 2017, 07:49:34 pm »

New weekly Cadem poll
Sebastian Piñera 24 (-)
Alejandro Guillier 15 (-)
Beatriz Sanchez 9 (+1)
Manuel Ossandon 4 (-)
Carolina Goic 3 (-)
Felipe Kast 1 (-)
Marco Enriquez-Ominami 1 (-)
Franco Parisi 1 (-1)
Others 3 (-1)

Among age demographics
18-34 years old:
Piñera 22
Sanchez 13
Guillier 13

35-54 years old:
Piñera 24
Guillier 16
Sanchez 8

55+:
Piñera 28
Guillier 18
Sanchez 7


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« Reply #17 on: May 17, 2017, 06:35:20 pm »

New Criteria Research poll

Sebastián Piñera 33%
Beatriz Sanchez 21%
Alejandro Guillier 19%
Franco Parisi 6% (lol)
Carolina Goic 3%
MEO 3%
Jose Antonio Kast 3%
Roxana Miranda 1%

Run-off:

Piñera vs Sanchez
Sanchez 42%
Piñera 41%

Piñera vs Guillier
Piñera 41%
Guillier 40%

Sorry about Goic's color, but I think that yellow fits perfectly with the DC
« Last Edit: May 17, 2017, 06:39:31 pm by seb_pard »Logged

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« Reply #18 on: May 18, 2017, 07:26:45 pm »

New Criteria Research poll

Sebastián Piñera 33%
Beatriz Sanchez 21%
Alejandro Guillier 19%
Franco Parisi 6% (lol)
Carolina Goic 3%
MEO 3%
Jose Antonio Kast 3%
Roxana Miranda 1%

Run-off:

Piñera vs Sanchez
Sanchez 42%
Piñera 41%

Piñera vs Guillier
Piñera 41%
Guillier 40%

Sorry about Goic's color, but I think that yellow fits perfectly with the DC
You were saying that Sanchez was getting an easy ride from pro Chile Vamos media. With a poll like that I imagine that that might change now.
Honestly I don't think this is a good poll, from what I read is taken online through a panel, so is not taken seriously (also cadem is not a good pollster, but is the only weekly poll that we have). The golden standard of chilean polls is the CEP, and I think is coming soon. That will give us a better view about the current political landscape.

From the more pro Chile Vamos media (I'm pointing directly at El Mercurio, but also Copesa and Mega Tv in a lesser level) I can't tell. I have the same feeling from last week, right wing people still don't see Beatriz Sanchez (and the Frente Amplio) as a threat, they still see her as a project from some college boys. But as Luminee said, this is getting interesting.
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« Reply #19 on: May 18, 2017, 07:41:17 pm »

Political scandals continue to develop, on one side to the questionable investments of Piñera, and particularly this week due to the news that the Partido Socialista (PS) had enormous sums of money invested in countless companies, some of them linked for example to Mr. Ponce Lerou, Augusto Pinochet's son-in-law. All in all, things are starting to get fun.
Honestly I really can't see the scandal there (and more as a vendetta against the PS because of Piñera and his recent events with his wealth). This is money that the state paid back after took it from them in 1973. This happen to many parties and most of them spent that on campaigns but they decided to make a committee to oversee this. The committee asked to the Private Banking division of BCI Bank to manage the money, and most of it was invested in fixed income (and a lesser part on equity). Only the comite. This was nationally known (I remember from 2012 I think after reading the El Mercurio's Reportajes section about the financial health of the main parties).

From what I reading only the committee had knowledge about the Portfolio's composition. The main mistake probably was not to invest in some companies, but I can't see something illegal or unethical, unlike other parties using fake bills from private companies to fund them o pay their members during opposition time (I see not only UDI, but also the PPD, which I think is Chile's worst party). And the criticism I see from some people is the typical "Oh a communist with an iphone or North Face".

Maybe I have a bias because I work in the financial sector but I can't see something bad here.
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« Reply #20 on: May 25, 2017, 07:40:05 pm »

Excellent although non-electoral news.

The government issued to schools a decrete (a circular) on April 27 about the rights of trans students. I remember some bishops made some noise and I didn't pay too much attention, but today I read an article in El Mostrador and really I think this is a real development that aims to a more inclusive society.
 
The document says that schools should implement the following concrete measures:
1. The use of inclusive language to erase gender stereotypes.
2. Promote diverse spaces of reflection, capacitation and support for members of the educational community, with the objective of assured, promote and guard the rights of trans students.
3. The educational community should always (without any exception) should treat the trans child by the social name independent of the legal name.
4. Trans students have the right to wear the uniform and/or accessories that they considered adequate with their gender (note: In chile almost all schools use uniform).
5. Trans students should be provided of easiness about the use of bathroom and showers, according to their own needs in the process they are living, respecting their gender identity.

In addition to the measures previously mentioned, schools are encouraged to implement more inclusive policies. Institutions that don't comply with the document will be subject to administrative sanctions.

It won't resolve all the challenges with respect to LGBT rights , but it is a good step.

Note: If you're interested about this and know some spanish, you can read more here: http://www.elmostrador.cl/braga/2017/05/25/que-es-lo-que-exige-realmente-la-circular-de-educacion-que-protege-los-derechos-de-los-estudiantes-trans/

I'm very happy Cheesy
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« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2017, 10:47:06 pm »

Now that I have more free time (no more CFA for a while) I'm preparing an introduction to Chilean parties (very difficult due to UK's election, go Corbyn Cheesy), that I hope it would be useful to users that don't know about my country's politics. Lets start with the right wing coalition Chile Vamos:

Chile Vamos

Chile Vamos is the right-wing coalition of Chile and the main opposition. It’s currently composed of 4 parties: Independent Democratic Union (UDI), National Renewal (RN), Political Evolution (Evopoli) and the Independent Regionalist Party (PRI). Although CV was founded in 2015, is basically the new name of the Alianza por Chile, the traditional alliance of UDI and RN (in Chile we like to change the name of our coalitions so we convince ourselves that by changing the name, it will be something different).

I’m going to give a brief of every party of CV

UDI
Is not easy for me to talk about this party, because is basically one of the most polarizing of the national parties (along with the Communist Party). The UDI is a right-wing party, very conservative on social issues and followers of the Chicago School on economics. The party was founded by Jaime Guzman, the ideological architect of Pinochet’s constitution and the most important ideologue the right had had in Chile. Guzman was murdered in 1991 by members of the guerrilla group Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front (the military wing of the Communist party during the Pinochet government) and he became an icon in this party.

Members of the UDI follow a very particular ideology called Gremialismo (Guildism) formulated by Jaime Guzman in the 60’s. Gremialismo propose the independence of the so called intermediate bodies but basically is a justification to avoid the political role of social organizations (e.g Prevent organizations like unions from being left wing). The Gremialistas achieved a great prominence in 1967 when they opposed the reform movement of the Catholic University (my university Smiley). They were capable of create a strong movement that reached great power in the University and the country. Most of the leaders of the Gremialismo are now the leaders of the party (most of them are senators).

Nowadays the UDI is the largest political party (the obtain on average between 18% and 25% of the vote). They are particularly strong with the upper classes and the south’s rural areas. They have a strong message of being a “popular” party, with a strong support of lower classes, but I don’t think there is a empirical evidence of that, except on some regions of the Chilean south. But one problem the party has is that most of their population don’t like them.

Electoral results (Congress):
Year-% of vote in Chambers of deputies-% of vote in Senate
1989 – 9.17% - 5.17%
1993 – 12.5% - 10.15%
1997 – 14.45% - 17.19%
2001 – 25.18% - 15.18%
2005 – 22.34% - 21.56%
2009 – 23.04% - 21.56%
2013 – 18.92% - 14.69%


RN
I don’t think there is too much difference between UDI and RN on some economic issues, but RN is clearly a more diverse party. You can find very broad range of right wing politicians here, for example Ossandon, who has a populist message (he was mayor of one of the most populous communes, Puente Alto, which is a mix of middle class and some very poor and dangerous neighborhoods), Sebastian Piñera (now independent, but this is his party), Andres Allamand and Carlos Larrain.

I think one of the advantaged of RN in front of Udi is that the party is not seen as sectarian as their allies, and people are more prone to support them (see Sebastian Piñera). One problem is that the party don’t have a coherent message rely too much on the popularity of some candidates, but they don’t have a clear identity and you can see now with the feud between Piñera and Ossandon.

Electoral results (Congress):
1989 – 18.28% - 10.76%
1993 – 16.31% - 14.92%
1997 – 16.77% - 14.85%
2001 – 13.77% - 19.74%
2005 – 14.12% - 10.80%
2009 – 17.82% - 20.19%
2013 – 14.90% - 16.24%


Evopoli
Evopoli was founded by Felipe Kast and other politicians in 2012 with the intention to create a new center right, with a liberal message. I am very surprised with the popularity of this party with the right-wing people under 30. Although the party has a fresh message I wouldn’t consider a liberal party, I can’t compare their message with parties like FDP or D66. But I think their development is very interesting, specially with Kast as their leader (I don’t like him, but he has a bright future as a leader of the right).

The base of the party is not clear yet because they only have one congressman (Kast) and this is their first election at a national level.


PRI
With all honestly, I think this is a joke party, it was founded by some Christian Democrats politician during the first government of Bachelet and have some politicians with some regional support. I don’t think they should be classify as a center right party, they are big tent (but they apparently have an excellent relationship with Piñera).

Electoral results (Congress):
2009 – 4% - 2.47%
2013 – 1.15% - 0

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seb_pard
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« Reply #22 on: June 19, 2017, 08:21:43 pm »

The primaries officially started last week, so the main channels must broadcast the ads at prime time.

The ads of the first day are the following:

Chile Vamos

Sebastian Piñera
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-or6rBpG9o

Felipe Kast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg9M2ZRC8ik

Manuel Jose Ossandon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l4p_iWQXrY


Broad Front

Beatriz Sanchez
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi2xJo-ykm8

Alberto Mayol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DI7JkqrKD74

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seb_pard
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« Reply #23 on: June 29, 2017, 11:12:06 pm »

We have the primaries this sunday. The turnout is going to be probably very low (due to the weather, the finals of Confederations cup and lack of interest) but election day is actually very fun in chile, the voted are counted live and the process is very fast.

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seb_pard
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« Reply #24 on: June 30, 2017, 12:14:08 pm »

Based on what the party leaders are saying yes, but I really think that the support is meaningless. For example in 2009, MEO endorsed Frei in the second round but he was very reluctant and in the endorsing event he refereed Frei as the "candidate of the 29% percent" all the time. The thing is the turnout, based on what the candidates will act during the year until November would say a lot about the enthusiasm of the electorate. The main issue with Guillier right now is that for most of the people (to the left of center) he is the obvious reason above Piñera, but don't think is worthy to go and support for Guillier in order to avoid Piñera.

The missing point is the DC. Goic's candidate is almost dead, but I think there's gonna be a lot of noise about the party's support in the second round (or maybe the first), and probable they are going to officially endorse Guillier but many "high profiles" comrades (in Chile the DC militants call themselves comrades) would support publicly Piñera (e.g. Mariana Aylwin, Clemente Perez, etc.).
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