Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)

[Velasco]

Just finished a first riund map of results by commune. It's too big-sized for uploading to my gallery, so I'll leave a link.

https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/chile-2017.png

[Velasco]

I'd say Piñera is still the favourite, but the second round is going to be more exciting than expected. The surge of Frente Amplio has changed everything and refutes some preconceived notions, such as most of people in Chile thinking that reforms went too far. Also, the good performance of José Antonio Kast talks about the continued existence of an ultraconservative vote nostalgic for Pinochet. Frente Amplio and Kast are opposite poles: the future and the past.

The main problem for Piñera is that he needs to attract centrist voters, while needs to retain the ultraconservative "Tea Party" represented by Kast. In that regard, Piñera has the advantage that most of Kast voters may support him just to stop the left. I'd say that Piñera should not make concessions to his right wing and focus on the wavering centrist vote.

The problem for Alejandro Guillier is that he's far from having secured the support of FA voters. My opinion is that people in the governing centre-left coalition should make a correct reading of the result. They have lost the hegemony in the progressive camp. Guillier and the coalition supporting him need to make attractive offers in order to attract the FA vote, as well to retain the centrist vote represented by the PDC. It's quite a delicate balance.

Great work, Velasco!

Thank you.
 

[Velasco]

Just finished a first round map of results by commune. It's too big-sized for uploading to my gallery, so I'll leave a link.

https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/chile-2017.png

Awesome, what is with the red area north of Santiago? Gazing at a map, there doesn't seem to be very much there

Is it down to a home region as Guillier is from La Serena? or something more to it?

Thank you. Coquimbo region has been always a Concertación/Nueva Mayoría stronghold, especially the southern communes in the province of Choapa. Also, this red area in the map incorporates three communes located in the NE of Valparaíso region. There are important mine sites located there. Los Pelambres in the commune of Salamanca (Coquimbo) is one of the biggest copper mines in the world; a big vein is located in the communes of Cabildo and Petorca in Valparaíso region. This area is also located in the natural region known as Norte Chico. It has a semi-arid climate and there is agriculture in the valleys.

Even though Alejandro Guillier is from La Serena, his result there doesn't look very impressive. He got 27.1% in the Coquimbo region, which is a percentage 4.4% higher than his vote nationwide. However in La Serena his vote dropped to 22.9%, which is only 0.2% higher than average. His best results in this region were in the communes of Canela (52.8%) and Combarbalá (46%). Canela is located in the coast and it was the epicentre of the 2015 earthquake, as well it was the first place in Chile developing wind power and one of the five poorest communes in Chile. 

Possibly our Chilean posters could tell you more.

[Velasco]

Frente Amplio avoids giving an explicit endorsement to Alejandro Guiilier.

Candidate Beatriz Sánchez read a statement yesterday evening which reflects the formal and consensus position of the coalition. The statement reaffirms the "independence and autonomy" of the leftist block from "the other coalitions" in the context of a "new political cycle in Chile".

"We are not and we don't feel the owners of the persons' votes, thus our first call is to every one of our voters to reflect and express themselves at the polls in accordance to their beliefs and analyses."

"Because Chile is our concern, it's not the same for us who governs. We know that Sebastián Piñera represents a regression: more inequality, less rights and liberties (...)"

"Citizens need greater clarity from the Nueva Mayoría with regard to the suppression of the AFP (privately funded pension system), a quality public education without debt and profit, the democratization of the country through a Constituent Assembly and Tax Justice".

Beatriz Sánchez remarked that they don't want to negotiate offices nor a coalition government, as well that they are not granting freedom of action because they are not the owners of the votes. "We trust in people and their ability to decide".

Finally the Frente Amplio calls Alejandro Guillier to get rid of ambiguous positions on key issues (pension system, education, constitutional and tax reform)  in order to "search majorities among the Chilean citizens".

Later deputy Gabriel Boric (the leading figure of the FA alongside deputy Giorgio Jackson) remarked that they call not to vote Piñera, after senator Andrés Allamand said that the FA slammed the door to Guillier. Allamand, who was minister with Piñera, considers that the FA release is a "resounding political failure" for the candidate of the Nueva Mayoría reminder. On the opposite side, PS chairman Álvaro Elizalde said that he has no doubt that, after a reflection on what's at stake, a majority of those supporting Beatriz Sánchez in the first round will vote Guillier in the second round.

[Velasco]

Parliamentary elections

[Velasco]

“O’Higgins” being associated with Chile always makes me do a double take.

Why not learning something about Chile before posting silly comments?

For instance:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernardo_O%27Higgins

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(More trivia: a certain Leopoldo O'Donnell was a prominent political figure in the XIX Century Spain).

The name of incumbent president Michelle Bachelet sounds suspiciously French.

Further examination might reveal you that many Chilean politicians have names that suggest European ancestry from countries that are not Spain. For instance, there is an abnormally high proportion of Croatian surnames -including FA deputy Gabriel Boric-. There is some FA deputy called "Jackson" because his father is English.