Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%) (user search)
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Author Topic: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)  (Read 48021 times)
Lumine
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« on: October 24, 2016, 10:06:13 AM »
« edited: December 17, 2017, 09:40:41 PM by Lumine »

Yes, it’s that time again. It seems to be a tradition that the presidential race in Chile formally starts right after the municipal elections, and with about 13 months left until the first round we already have plenty of declared candidates, potential candidates and probably some surprises left in store.

So I’ll be placing a list of candidates here, and then move on to some analysis of what exactly has been going on in Chile since Michelle Bachelet was overwhelmingly elected to a second term in 2013:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC - Ruling left to center-left coalition)

Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD): Strictly speaking Lagos has only said he's "willing to run", but for all purposes he is in full candidate mode, having campaigned across the municipal election and having seen the Energy Minister resign to serve as his campaign chairman. President from 2000-2006 and renowned as the symbol of the old Concertacion, Lagos jump-started the Presidential race earlier than expected a month or so ago, and while he leads the polls on the left side his position is unusually weak among the electorate. He has already seduced the leadership of several Nueva Mayoria parties, but it's far from certain he'd win a primary.

Senator Isabel Allende (PS): Daughter of Salvador Allende, the Senator took over the Partido Socialista a couple of years ago as Chairman in an attempt to raise her profile and become one of the contenders. So far it hasn't worked, because she hasn't managed to be percieved as taking strong and public stances on the issues. Indeed, most of the PS parlamentarians are taking Lagos's side and not her, so it's becoming doubtful she'll find enough support to bother with a run.

Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD): The unexpected darkhorse. Guiller used to be a popular and well regarder TV journalist who ran for Senate as an independent backed by the Radicals and won. While he hasn't had a large profile until this year, he's unexpectedly surged as he's viewed as a "principled outsider", and his campaigning in the municipals led the PRSD to some of its best results ever. Indeed, polls show him as the most competitive Nueva Mayoria candidate, and he seems to be Lagos's main threat.

Deputy Jorge Tarud (PPD): Tarud's a non-starter. A veteran parlamentarian and well regarded on his native Maule region, Tarud is better known as a foreign policy wonk with a penchant for making incendiary comments about Bolivia and Peru, and you can find him from time to time on TV attacking both countries rather fiercely. He's one of the few who's actually announced that he will run, but don't expect him to get far.

Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS): A former Interior Minister (Lagos's right-hand man), his moment to run was in 2009 and he knows it. Still, he remains a possibility given his profile of a tough and effective operator, although a run from him would be pointless if Lagos indeed runs as they share the same electorate.

Senator Ignacio Walker (DC)Sad The Christian Democrats are rather unhappy about the current government, believing it has gone too far to the left. Their loathing of the communists also doesn't help. So the DC is divided in two sides: The old guard, with former Interior Minister Jorge Burgos seems to be of the opinion that they need to back Lagos and secure a large amount of influence on a moderate government of his. Senator Walker and a different side believe the DC has to field their own candidate on a primary or a first round to gain more leverage, and Walker is promoting himself as that candidate.

Mayor Daniel Jadue (PC): Strictly speaking, no one knows what the PC will do. Some say they will remain on a broad center-left coalition and might even back Lagos, others say that they will turn back to the left and away from Nueva Mayoria. In any case, Mayor Jadue (who won in an upset in 2012 and has proved very popular due to several of his proposals) has expressed interest in a run, even if the party leadership went out of their way to deny that this was a possibility. So who knows?

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli - The main opposition, center-right to right coalition)

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind)Sad Despite leaving office as an unpopular President with his coalition crushed at the election, Piñera has ironically turned into the trump card of the opposition. With Bachelet's government reaching higher levels of unpopularity than ever thought possible Piñera's administration looks better with hindsight (particularly his handling of the economy), and for whatever reason the corruption scandals on the right don't seem to have hit him. Indeed, the man leads all the polls ever since Lagos forced an early start of the race. Officially Piñera will not decide until March and campaigned at the municipals just out of helping Chile Vamos, but yeah, everybody knows he wants a comeback. After his triumph yesterday (having heavily campaigned for many winners), expect him to be the man to beat.

Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind): Ossandon's a bit of an odd man. A persistent critic of Piñera, popular Mayor and the champion of the social-christian right, his term as a Senator has defined him further as a maverick, who left RN in protest for what he believes is a Pro-Piñera bias. So he'll run for sure in the primaries, perhaps even in the first round if he believes he's been treated unfairly.

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind): Kast is to UDI what Ossandon is to RN, having left the party in protest... for not being right-wing enough. Yeah, Kast believes the pro-Pinochet party ought to be a bit less moderate. So he's gathering signatures to actually go to the first round, and it looks like he might actually accomplish it.

Senator Alberto Espina (RN) / Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN): I put both on the same category as they're pretty similar in views, both loyal party men of RN and aspiring contenders to be the party's nominee in the primaries. I won't judge to their chances if the primary is an open one, but if Piñera runs expect many RN votes to just turn to him and leave Espina or Chahuan (Espina has announced, Chahuan is a likely one) with minor levels of support.

UDI: The Union Democrata Independiente is the clearest sign of how bizarre Chilean politics can be. Despite being the party that was hit the most by corruption scandals with several of its historical leaders (and presidential candiates) paraded across a courtroom, the party still was the largest one at the municipal election despite losing many votes, scoring most of the more symbolic victories. On the other hand, they simply don't have a figure with enough standing to run (the opposite of 2013, where they went through three heavy-weights). Some point to archconservative former Mayor Francisco de la Maza, some to the very young Deputy Jaime Bellolio, and some believe they should back Piñera outright.

Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli)Sad Evopoli is one of the two parties who split from RN (the other being Amplitud) and it aspires to represent the liberal center-right. To some degree it was succesful in garnering some 3% of the vote at the municipals (in Counciliors), but it just doesn't have a lot of leverage. Felipe Kast aims to run to position the party, but again, don't expect him to do particularly well.

PRO
(The Partido Progresista, a splinter from the old Concertacion and Ominami's cult of personality party)

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami: Ominami did history by running in 2009 as a center-left candidate who repudiated the Concertacion, and heavily damaged Eduardo Frei in the first round. He founded his own party to run in 2013... and got half the votes. At some point in 2015 with Bachelet's government sinking fast it looked like the left would have to run to Ominami as their savior, until he was involved in the corruption scandals as well. He still registers some support in the polls and has announced he will run, but he's dropped like a rock from his standing a few months ago.

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud - A new centrist formation, with liberal undertones)

Unknown: Ciudadanos is a centrist party born from dissafected Concertacion supporters of Andres Velasco, whereas Amplitud is a center-right liberal party born out of the liberal wing of RN and led by Senator Lily Perez. They didn't do very well at the municipals (1% of the vote more or less), and both Perez and Velasco eye runs for the Senate, so one has to wonder what exactly will happen with this coalition. There are some supporters of Piñera here, but it's tough to say that would happen in a Piñera-Lagos or Piñera-Guiller race.

Frente Amplio?

Unknown: This is pure speculation, but there is a push among the non-Nueva Mayoria left to form a large coalition of left-wing parties to contest the election with a presidential candidate. Personally, I think this option is a lot more likely after the municipal results (which showed splitting the vote will not lead to good results), but it's impossible to tell. Plus, all the high-profile figures seem to come from the student movement, all too young to run.

Independent, Other:

Businessman Leonardo Farkas: A highly eccentric billionaire and philantropist, Farkas returned to Chile in 2007-2008 and took the country by storm, quickly becoming a possible candidate for 2009, although he declined. Ever popular, there's signs that point he could be considering a run, and he always registers at least 1-2% in the polls in the open questions. No way to predict how a run of his would look, but it does look like an election in which like a character like him could do well.
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Lumine
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2016, 10:13:27 AM »

Opinion Polls:
(I'll be registering them as they go, starting with the closest to the Municipal Election)

Plaza Publica Cadem, October 24th:

Bachelet Approval: 22%/68%

Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Lagos 7%, Guiller 7%, Ominami 5%, Ossandon 3%, Farkas 2%, Allende 1%, Others 8%, None/Wouldn't Vote 47%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 36%, Lagos 14%, Guiller 5%, Ossandon 2%, Farkas 2%, Ominami 1%, Allende 1%, None/Wouldn't Vote 36%
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Lumine
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2016, 10:35:00 AM »
« Edited: October 24, 2016, 10:43:29 AM by Vice President Lumine »

Jesus, the contrast between Bachelet I and Bachelet II is intense. Is the economy doing that badly?

Yes and no. Strictly speaking growth has significantly decreased (from 5% or so under Piñera to 2% or so under Bachelet) and the Government has been forced to take a more conservative approach to spending (defined by the Finance Minister as "ete gobierno no es de billetera facil"). Add to that that the price of copper is going down, that unemployment is percieved to be higher under Bachelet and that the tax reform of the government failed to inspire much confidence and you have a clear perception of the economy doing badly.

Alas, it is not the economy that sunk Bachelet. I'll do an explanatory write-up later, but the fact is that at the start of 2015 Bachelet's son Sebastian Davalos (who had a position in La Moneda as some sort of "socio-cultural advisor", sort of a First Lady or First Gentleman equivalent) was involved in the Caval scandal, in which he and his wife adquired some terrains in a shady deal that involved a few obscure loans, leading to a full investigation and corruption charges. Bachelet was not involved, of course, but her personal image utterly collapsed in a matter of weeks.

And furthermore, the political incompetence of the Government has dwarfed Piñera's own failures in 2011 and 2012, leading Bachelet to fire two Interior Ministers and seeing several Ministers resign in less than ideal conditions (one of them, set to be the Government's official spokesman, lasted about a month before his integrity was put into question and he was forced to resign). Bachelet deeply believes her educational, tax, constitutional and union reforms are the best for the country, but the Nueva Mayoria parties are heavily divided in those and the Government's already chronic unpopularity has dragged the reforms down. Whereas the tax and educational reform had substantial majority backing in 2014, they are now rather unpopular.

So while Piñera had to struggle with approval ratings in the low thirties and high twenties that made governing difficult, Bachelet has had to deal with her popularity in the low twenties and high tens. Indeed, the last poll showing her at 22% is actually an improvement for her. By opinion polls she has become literally the most unpopular President since democracy returned, surpassing Piñera at his worst moments (and he was pretty damn unpopular at one point, which is why his political revival is so fascinating).

EDIT: Indeed, at one poll in August her approval rating reached 15%.
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Lumine
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 11:06:33 AM »
« Edited: October 24, 2016, 12:43:21 PM by Vice President Lumine »

Lagos will be 79 in 2017.

Btw, what's the deal with former Latin American Presidents being so prone to run for non consecutive terms if allowed? Just from the bottom of my head: Bachelet, Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle, Alan Garcia, Carlos Menem, Rodrigo Borja, Alejandro Toledo, etc. etc. (with some like Itamar Franco plotting to run in every subsequent presidential election after his term, and Lula being a possible candidate in 2018).

Just do what Mexico did: you get six years and after that be gone.

You try telling Lagos he's too old, he certainly doesn't look at it that way (and believe it or not, no one has made an issue of his age or health). But to the question, it's because Latin American politics are personality based more than they are ideological, always related to the idea of the "caudillo", the political leader. You can see it in Chile, where many political parties can be separated more by style, personalities and rhetoric rather than ideology or policies.

Aylwin never ran again because his term was more than enough for him, but Frei ran again (and lost), Bachelet ran again (and won), and it seems all but certain Piñera and Lagos will go for it too.
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Lumine
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2016, 12:41:12 PM »

Pero mi pais ya necesita poder de la gente... Chile no se queda atras, nuestra mejor opportunidad...

Any chance of Parisi getting back into the mix? Mainly cos that jingle was stellar.

Well, the man did express interest in running again. Alas, he was fired from two different universities in the United States after being accused of sexual harassment, so... it's a bit doubtful we'll be hearing "el poder de la gente" once again.
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Lumine
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2016, 12:54:38 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2016, 12:56:15 PM by Vice President Lumine »

October 24th:

  • Speculation abounds that a substantial cabinet reshuffle might be in the cards after the electoral results. A few days ago Bachelet was forced to fire the Justice Minister, with the Energy Minister and the National Assets Minister resigning (Energy Minister Maximo Pacheco doing so to chair Lagos's campaign), with the move criticized from Nueva Mayoria for not being deep enough. It seems Bachelet may be forced to sack some of the key Ministers after all.
  • Seen as one of the few Nueva Mayoria winners by helping increase the share of the vote of the PRSD (from 5% to 7% or so), Senator Alejandro Guiller described the high abstention as "a catastrophe for democracy", and stated that the Nueva Mayoria had to consider whether it should continue to go on or whether it would change or be replaced. Guiller also noted that he was "willing to participate" on the Presidential Election, but would not confirm a run.
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Lumine
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2016, 01:11:22 PM »

Very interesting!  Lumine, do you think that the recent center-right wave across South America also had an impact in Chile's local results? And that could also have an impact in 2017 presidential election?

I wouldn't say it had a role on the local elections themselves, but overall and in public discourse it does play a role. Many in the right, and particularly the more liberal right were very much encouraged by the Macri and PPK victories in Argentina and Perú, although more important than that is the negative perception some of the left-wing governments in Latin America have caused. Indeed, there has been a decent amount of debate between the left and the right over Brazil and particularly over Venezuela.

Whether it will do so on the presidential depends greatly on whether Bachelet's standing recovers or not and where the non Nueva Mayoria left stands, but I can say that Chile Vamos now believes they can actually win the presidential race. That was NOT the case a few weeks ago, and examples like Argentina combined with these results are probably a much needed boost of confidence.
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Lumine
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2016, 09:02:49 PM »

A scenario between Lagos and Piñera is just so sad to me, it's very painful to watch the political process right now in the country, specially from the left. Although I think this is Piñera's election to lose, the Nueva Mayoria is close to dead (the only thing that unify them is they have too many people dependent on government jobs) and all UDI leaders know that he is the only one from the right that can win (maybe Ossandon, but I think that once he starts to speak, his unfavorability will increase), despite they hate Piñera.

Although the economy is not in its best shape (last year's growth was 2.3% and the forecast for 2016 is 1.7%), Bachelet's disapproval is mainly explained by the government scandals, specially the Caval scandal. Lumine what do you think about this case? I think this really killed Bachelet politically, and since then, she is just waiting for the end of her government.

Well, for all the talk of renovation in politics Piñera and Lagos are not only leading inside parties, but on the polls. You truly have an entire missed generation of politicians who simply couldn't break through and become the voices of the future, so in a way it is less than ideal to see that happening. On the other hand, when I look at the other center-right candidates I don't see much to be convinced that they would be better than Piñera. I have a lot of sympathy and support for, say, Espina or Chahuan or Kast (Evopoli), but I can't seem them as president. I have to agree with you on Ossandon, I used to like the man, but he's too much of a loose canon to stand a real chance.

But I can see where it might be depressing for the left. It is sad enough that the right still hasn't reinvented itself and abandoned some of the darkest parts of their past (something I've wanted for a long time), but the collapse of Nueva Mayoria must be truly painful from the inside. I truly expected the Chilean left to dominate politics for a while in late 2014, so to see the current situation is a bit of a shock. While I certainly disapprove of the government's economic policy (although I have a soft spot for Rodrigo Valdes), I also think it was Caval that in the end killed Bachelet. The strongest weapon she ever had was the fact that she could connect with people, and that people trusted and liked her on a personal level. And that was ended in a second by the scandal.

Bachelet's current term, whether one is from the left of the right, has many aspects of a tragedy. The President seems truly convinced her reforms are for the best, and yet her government has been dead, buried and basically irrelevant for more than a year now. I don't feel sorry for a second for Nueva Mayoria, but there are times in which I do feel sorry for Bachelet at a personal level.
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Lumine
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2016, 11:58:18 AM »

October 25th:

  • Despite the Municipal results not being all that bad, Nueva Mayoria seems to have entered a bit of a panic mode. PR Chairman Ernesto Velasco and DC Chairman Carolina Goic blame the Government for the electoral results, and cast further doubt into a Lagos campaign by criticizing his approach and his viability as a contender. Bachelet is resisting another cabinet reshuffle, but the Nueva Mayoria parties are really angry at the Government.
  • Furthermore, the Christian Democrats have openly called for sharp changes in the Government, suspending participation on a few meetings with the cabinet and other parties and calling for an emergency meeting on Thursday. Senator Walker denies talk of a "revolt" against Bachelet, but speculation suggests this might push DC to run a candidate of their own, possibly Senators Walker or Goic.
  • Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon claims to have the 35,000 signatures to enter the first round of the presidential election, and leaves it open whether to run in the Chile Vamos primaries or run as an independent. Piñera, in the meantime, continues to rise as the more likely candidate of the opposition, and has invited the leadership of Chile Vamos to a meeting to analyse the Municipal results.
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Lumine
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2016, 10:48:45 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2016, 10:50:33 PM by Vice President Lumine »

Has Bachelet managed to get any notable reform passed, or has she basically been a lame duck all through her term?

Oh, she most certainly did. 2014 was the key year, with Bachelet passing a tax reform law (which earned the ire of many small businessmen and economic groups, leading to negotiations with DC and Chile Vamos that watered it down a bit) and the decisive educational reforms, which created an odd scheme to make university free on a gradual basis among other things. Plus she also started a process to change the constitution, although so far not much has been advanced and the real decisions will be taken under the next President.

The more relevant ones in electoral terms though are a voting reform, which ends the binomial system to elect Congress, increases the Senate from 38 to 50 and the Deputies from 120 to 150 and moves onto a D'Hondt proportional system awarding seats in districts that elect several officeholders. Add to that a reform to directly elect "Governors" for each region, although the current project gives them little power (a delegate from the government would be the one actually ruling the region).

So yeah, despite all Bachelet has passed substantial reforms on many areas before seeing her approvals collapse. I do like the change to the electoral system despite a ridiculous provision which forces 40% of candidates to be women, and I do think having a new constitution is actually a good idea (although what that constitution should contain is the main issue), but I have to admit I abhor Bachelet's reforms on tax, the economy, and particularly the educational system.

That was sometime ago, though. Last week she attempted to get an emergency bill to solve a scandal within the electoral service (SERVEL) which left many voters assigned to districts in which they didn't live, and she simply didn't had enough influence for parties (even the Nueva Mayoria ones) to bother supporting it. So at this point I really don't think she can get much passed even with her parliamentary majority.
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Lumine
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2016, 01:22:06 PM »

October 26th:

  • Bachelet finally appears to have relented on changing the cabinet, with the Government's spokesperson Marcelo Diaz confirming in an interview that there will be changes announced very soon. Rumor has it Labor Minister Ximena Rincon has offered her resignation in protest of the way the union reforms have been handled (something her team has denied), and some believe Jose Miguel Insulza is to land at La Moneda to rescue the Government from a leading portfolio.
  • Prominent Christian Democrats continue to redouble their attacks on Bachelet's approach, with old guard leader Gutemberg Martinez joining the fray. Bachelet loyalists like Senator Jorge Pizarro criticize this approach, and suggest talk of DC leaving Nueva Mayoria is ridiculous.
  • Despite all party leaders continuing to back the concept of a presidential primary for Chile Vamos, the concept seems to be falling apart as Piñera grows more and more consolidated. Former Presidential candidate Evelyn Matthei (triumphantly elected Mayor of Providencia) has offered her tentative support, and UDI seems to be leaning more and more towards backing Piñera instead of running a candidate of their own. Depending on the RN and UDI Leadership elections on November-December, we might see Piñera being accepted as the inevitable nominee, Kast (the ex-UDI one) and Ossandon running in the first round as dissident candidates.
  • MAS Senator and Nueva Mayoria renegade Alejandro Navarro presents a constitutional reform project to lower the age requirements for the presidency to 30 years, in hope of allowing some of the student movement leaders to run for the presidency next year or in 2020. It remains to be seen what will happen here.
  • The blow Lagos has been dealt at the Municipal Election continues to raise doubt on his chances. Not only is Senator Isabel Allende looking a bit stronger, but there is talk of constitutional law expert and political analyst Fernando Atria as a possible PS candidate that could signal a sharp turn to the left (Atria believes in a constituent assembly to change the Constitution, and appears to be a Jeremy Corbyn admirer seeking to replicate his model).
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Lumine
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2016, 01:25:41 PM »

Opinion Poll:

CERC-Mori, October 27th:

Bachelet Approval: 26%/65%

Voting Intention: Piñera 19%, Guiller 11%, Lagos 9%, Allende 8%, Ominami 4%, Ossandon 4%, Insulza 2%, Walker 1%, Undecided 41%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 24%, Lagos 10%, Guiller 4%, Ominami 1%, Other/None 61%

Piñera-Lagos race: Piñera 28%, Lagos 23%, Undecided 49%

Piñera-Guiller race: Guiller 28%, Piñera 26%, Undecided 46%

Politicians with a more promising future: Piñera 20%, Lagos 13%, Guiller 11%, Ominami 9%, Jackson 7%

Voting Intention (Parliamentary): RN 7%, Other 6%, PS 5%, DC 3%, PPD 2%, UDI 2%, None 24%, Undecided 36%
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Lumine
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2016, 01:35:28 PM »

October 27-28th:

  • Bachelet removes 7 undersecretaries from the ministries, and confirms that there will be a cabinet reshuffle on November. That said, Bachelet justifies this with the excuse that ministers who leave may be doing so to compete in the parliamentary election, and refuses the interpretation that the Government ought to be blamed by the Municipal results.
  • The Christian Democrats confirm they will support the Government until the end of the term, they have frozen their relationship with La Moneda and removed themselves from several instances of debate inside the coalition. The DC Leadership seems to be preparing a government programme and in talks to consider a new coalition to replace Nueva Mayoria, and the idea of proclaiming a DC presidential candidate in January takes strength.
  • Chile Vamos's leaders (particularly the RN leadership) continue talks with Senator Ossandon, hoping to persuade him to contest the primary with Piñera rather than go all the way to the first round. Ossandon seems open to the idea at least, amidst fears that UDI might not run a candidate and that Felipe Kast (Evopoli) would be too weak a contender, making the primaries a formality.
  • Alejandro Navarro's proposal to lower the age to serve as President seems to have been dealt a heavy blow as former student leader and current deputy Giorgio Jackson (Revolucion Democratica) rejects the idea, suggesting it's far from a priority and that it would be counterproductive to make said change shortly before the presidential election.
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Lumine
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2016, 02:00:56 PM »

That all sounds pretty great to me. I'd be curious to know more about the tax and education reforms, but both of them sound like major progressive victories. Th
e electoral reform is also glorious news, hopefully it will finally end gridlock. I'd much rather have an unpopular President that achieves significant positive change than a popular do-nothing one.

So, it seems like Nueva Mayoria is in serious trouble for this election, but they should get their act back together by 2021, right?

Eh, I wouldn't really call them all that progressive. Bachelet's tax reform was basically a significant series of tax raises across the board, with a particular focus on corporate taxes, alcohol and tobacco taxes, with Bachelet and the Nueva Mayoria promising all the way this would raise enough money to support their election pledge to make college education free after the student movement's demands. Several economists, Chile Vamos, and even sectors of DC inside the government warned the reforms combined with the economic climate would probably do more harm, and sure enough, the growth forecasts of the Government proved to be very, very wrong.

Indeed, the Government itself admitted it after firing Finance Minister Arenas to replace him with the more moderate and relatively fiscally conservative Rodrigo Valdes, with La Moneda stating it would not have enough money for several of its promised pledges. An example of this was scaling back the college proposals from making it free to just 70% of students, then only 60%, and so on. It is in doubt whether current levels can even be afforded long term. Which leads us to the education reforms, which tackle two main issues:

1.- Chile has three types of schools: Public (which are rather awful), semi-private (which are private or religious, but receive a degree of public financing) and the fully private ones. As a general rule, the more private they are the better quality they have, with the semi-private schools being the ones having about 60% of students in the country (I studied at one of those, a catholic school which was made affordable for middle class students through those subsides). The reform decided to focus on public education fully, ending the entire subsidy scheme so schools would only be private or public (and most will turn private), and eliminating the prerogative to select students (thus forcing schools to basically just accept them with few to none requisites). This I loathe because it basically kills the schools that were actually doing a good job, forcing students into public schools that don't work and offer poor quality of education for the sake of "social equality" rhetoric. There are also some reforms into the courses, which eliminate philosophy and reduce history, among other choices.

2.- The university dilemma. Ever since Nueva Mayoria decided to turn populist to try and win the protest vote and the supporters of the student movement, a key pledge was to pursue free schooling in universities, a policy which has been introduced gradually and slowed down significantly once it was clear there just weren't enough resources to actually pay for the scheme. This one has the virtue to draw ire from both the right and the non Nueva Mayoria left. The right because they don't believe we ought to be wasting so many resources for the sake of, again, rhetoric, and the left because they want fully free schooling now along with an end to grants and scholarships, at times basing this is saying that all we need to do is direct the gains from copper to the education budget or gutting the armed forces to obtain the resources.

Reforms such as these use progressive rhetoric indeed, and I can see why some people think the reforms are for the best of country. But to me personally (and I am a very biased person, that I cannot deny), they are ill-thought populist measures which will do little but inflict serious harm on our educational future while placing undue strain on the budget. Add to that that the Government has been awful at trying to sell the reforms and drive them through Congress (and they have passed solely on the fact that Nueva Mayoria has a clear majority), and the fact that Bachelet is closely identified with her reforms as her project, and there is a reason why many people have turned against them.

That said, I am happy that we changed the electoral system. I have serious misgivings about some parts of that change (because again, I dislike the idea of making it mandatory that 40% of candidates must be women), but a more proportional system is a welcomed plus, and a way to make our politics more diverse and less static.
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2016, 02:10:15 PM »

So, it seems like Nueva Mayoria is in serious trouble for this election, but they should get their act back together by 2021, right?

Indeed, it is. The problem is that ever since we introduced voluntary vote instead of mandatory less and less people can be bothered to vote, which meant that the Municipal Elections couldn't be predicted (and few people bothered to do polling because it was pointless). In the end, it seems our political system might shift from who is more acceptable to a larger part of the electorate to who can drive more people to the polls, which might mean doubling down on an electoral base rather than trying to increase the appeal. Nueva Mayoria is divided and shellshocked, but it can certainly still win. It's just that it changed from being sure that they would win in the end to a great deal of uncertainity.

Piñera, after all, is no unbeatable juggernaut, and also brings up a lot of rejection.

As to 2021... no one, and I mean no one, can say. Chilean politics are very unpredictable in the long term given the amount of personalism involved. When the old Concertacion lost power to Piñera in 2010 it entered a panic through 2010 to 2011, appearing to be lost and without a clear course as Piñera soared on the polls. But the student movement and Piñera's popularity collapse opened a clear road to power, and the Concertacion took it, unpredictably (from a 2010 point of view) branding itself as the Nueva Mayoria, taking a sharp turn to the left in discourse (not so much on policies) and resuscitating Bachelet as the electoral machine that would return them to victory. And sure enough, the gamble worked. Bolstered by the student and citizen movement they crushed the right-wing in the 2012 Municipals, and obliterated them again in 2013 with Matthei being vanquished and parliament going solid left.

Indeed, as late as 2014-2015 it seemed Nueva Mayoria was set for long term dominance despite their issues as the Chilean right was disintegrating. And they threw it all away. So you have an entire wing led by the Christian Democrats saying "let's turn back to the Concertacion and to the center", and a whole other wing saying "no, we need to turn to the left and deepen the reforms". Add to that the fact that the far-left and the student movement is turning into a real third political force... and you have an unpredictable situation for the left.
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2016, 04:53:38 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2016, 04:55:56 PM by Vice President Lumine »

How long can the DC stand sitting in same boat as the PC?!

Hard to say. Both parties loathe each other and disagree on most of the issues, yet both see it as indispensable to keep close to the largest left or center-left coalition because of the previous electoral system, under which PC never got far by running alone and DC always had a major influence on each government. The PC is hesitant to abandon the power they've achieved by being part of the government, and DC is not interested in the wilderness or the right (much as I dream of the Christian Democrats "going home", so to speak). I'd like to think DC will finally say enough is enough, but both DC and PC have a bit of a reputation of being opportunistic.

We have a new candidate as well, just announced on an interview:

Grand Master Luis Riveros (Ind, close to PRSD): Former Rector of the Universidad de Chile and the Grand Master of the Grand Lodge of Chile, Riveros is a well regarded academic and economist, with the intention to run what he described as a "citizen candidacy". As the top leader of the Chilean freemasons, Riveros wields considerable influence within PRSD (which has always been the party of freemasonry) and is a critic of presidential hopeful Alejandro Guiller. Presumably Riveros wouldn't run in a hypothetic Nueva Mayoria primary as he is a supporter of the old Concertacion but has been highly critical of the current coalition, but I'm at a loss to make predictions.
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2016, 06:36:11 PM »

  • Senator Isabel Allende (PS), the daugther of former President Salvador Allende has suddenly announced her decision to drop out of the upcoming presidential race, providing no main reason but stressing the need to keep the PS united and thanking supporters for their aid during the past months. With Allende's decision not to run the road seems clear for a Lagos or Insulza endorsement from PS, unless Fernando Atria were to unexpectedly pick up steam from the left-wing of the party.

This leaves the current field as:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Deputy Jorge Tarud (PPD) - Announced
Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced

Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD) - "Willing to run"
Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - "Willing to run"
Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - "Willing to run"
Senator Ignacio Walker (DC) - "Willing to run"

Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Speculative
Former Minister Jorge Burgos (DC) - Speculative
Mayor Daniel Jadue (PC) - Speculative
Deputy and Party Chairman Guillermo Teillier (PC) - Speculative

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced, 35.000 signatures in hand
Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, gathering signatures
Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Announced
Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN) - Announced
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) - Announced

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March
Former Mayor Francisco de la Maza (UDI) - Speculative
Deputy Jaime Bellolio (UDI) - Speculative

PRO

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud)

Unknown

Frente Amplio?

Activist Luis Mesina (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Independent, Other:

Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) - Announced
Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Speculative
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2016, 10:56:25 AM »

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, October 31st:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/69%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 24%, Guiller 10%, Lagos 8%, Ominami 3%, Ossandon 3%, Farkas 2%, Allende 1%, Others 7%, Undecided 42%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 42%, Lagos 11%, Guiller 6%, Ossandon 3%, Farkas 1%, Ominami 1%, Allende 1%, Other/None 33%

Municipals:

Which candidate was bolstered by the municipals: Piñera 55%, Guiller 7%, Ossandon 4%, Lagos 4%, Ominami 2%, Allende 1%, Insulza 1%

Which candidate was damaged by the municipals: Lagos 35%, Ominami 26%, Allende 7%, Piñera 3%, Ossandon 2%, Guiller 2%, Insulza 1%

Political Party more aided by the results: UDI 25%, RN 21%, DC 3%, PPD 3%, PS 2%, PRO 2%, EVOPOLI 1%, PRI 1%, PRSD 1%, PC 1%, RD 1%

Political Party more hurt by the results: DC 18%, PPD 12%, PS 10%, PC 6%, PRO 6%, UDI 5%, RN 3%, EVOPOLI 2%, PRI 1%, PRSD 1%, RD 1%

Biggest responsible for the Nueva Mayoria defeat: Bachelet 19%, Nueva Mayoria parties 18%, both 58%

Should there be a cabinet reshuffle: Yes 66%, No 28%
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2016, 03:17:54 PM »

November 1st:

The fall-out over Senator Allende's unexpected departure from the presidential race so early continues to hit the PS, with observers citing Lagos as the force who drove Allende (willingly or not) out of the race and accelerated the process. Lagos's most likely rival in PS, his former Interior Minister Jose Miguel Insulza (nicknamed the Panzer) is facing a lot of pressure currently to announce or drop out, the new timing placing serious strain on his possible bid for the presidency. Indeed, it seems Lagos is skillfully eliminating his rivals one by one by virtue of being more resilient, having eliminated Allende from the picture and being close to forcing Insulza out.

With Fernando Atria (PS) and Deputy Jorge Tarud not having a chance in hell of becoming nominees of the coalition (although they might get to the primaries), all eyes are set on Insulza on whether he'll force a PS primary, and particularly on Senator Alejandro Guiller as the only rival with enough popular support to defeat Lagos in a primary (and defeat Piñera as well on the presidential). Guiller, on the other hand, seems hesitant to make a decision so early, wasting time as Lagos exploits his influence to garner more institutional support from the Nueva Mayoria parties.

We're a week from the Municipals, and the Presidential race has accelerated like no other before.
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2016, 09:27:35 AM »

Opinion Poll:

Adimark, November 3rd:

Bachelet Approval: 24%/71%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 20%, Guiller 15%, Lagos 5%, Ominami 5%, Ossandon 4%, Allende 2%, Kast (Evopoli) 1%, Insulza 1%, Others 10%, Undecided 37%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 37%, Lagos 14%, Guiller 8%, Allende 4%, Ominami 1%, Ossandon 1%, Insulza 1%, Other 35%

General:

Who do you identify more with: Government 30%, Opposition 35%, Neither 35%

Approval of Nueva Mayoria: 15%/77%

Approval of Chile Vamos: 17%/74%

Trust in Politicians:

Alejandro Guiller: 45%/28%
Sebastian Piñera: 35%/45%
Manuel Jose Ossandon: 26%/49%
Jose Miguel Insulza: 26%/51%
Carolina Goic:25%/46%
Isabel Allende: 23%/54%
Andres Velasco: 22%/52%
Francisco de la Maza: 21%/51%
Ricardo Lagos Escobar: 20%/66%
Alberto Espina: 16%/68%
Marco Enriquez-Ominami: 13%/71%
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« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2016, 02:28:43 PM »

November 1st-November 7th:

  • After a substantial amount of negotiations and informal talks Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind, ex RN) has decided to contest the Chile Vamos primary, ending talk of his campaign going to the first round and splitting the right-wing vote. This announcement was followed by Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) who also formalized his intent to campaign for the primary. With RN and UDI still unsure on candidates, there is speculation Piñera might have to announce earlier, although he insists he'll decide on March.
  • Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) stalls for time as he is pressed into a decision, announcing that his formal decision on a presidential round has to wait until the PS Congress on November 26th, where the formal mechanism to select the PS candidate is to be selected. Insulza is believed to be pushing for primaries, which he seeks to contest alongside Fernando Atria and possibly former President Lagos, who holds dual PPD-PS membership.
  • As the Chile Vamos Primary takes form and is now a certainity, Senator Alejandro Guiller (Ind, PRSD) has announced his preference for a presidential primary in Nueva Mayoria, challenging former President Lagos to take part in them. Guiller's stock continues to rise as his poll ratings improve and show him as a potential contender to defeat Piñera (while Lagos remains behind).
  • Another strike was held on November 4th to protest against the pension system led by the "No +APF's" Movement, which has been gaining ground over the past few months and made a signficant impact in public debate. It's leader, activist Luis Mesina, is seen by some as a potential candidate for office in the 2017 Elections.
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« Reply #21 on: November 14, 2016, 01:29:20 PM »

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, November 7th:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/70%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 28%, Guiller 14%, Lagos 6%, Ossandon 3%, Ominami 2%, Farkas 2%, Allende 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 38%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 46%, Guiller 10%, Lagos 8%, Ossandon 2%, Farkas 1%, Ominami 1%, Allende 1% Other/None 29%

Plaza Publica Cadem, November 14th:

Bachelet Approval: 20%/71%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 27%, Guiller 17%, Lagos 5%, Ossandon 3%, Ominami 2%, Farkas 2%, Kast (EVOPOLI) 1%, Others 5%, Undecided 38%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 45%, Guiller 16%, Lagos 7%, Ossandon 2%, Farkas 2%, Kast (EVOPOLI) 1%, Other/None 25%
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« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2016, 06:40:26 AM »
« Edited: November 27, 2016, 04:27:34 PM by Lumine »

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Deputy Jorge Tarud (PPD) - Announced
Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced
Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced

Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD) - "Willing to run"
Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - "Willing to run"
Senator Ignacio Walker (DC) - "Willing to run"

Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Speculative
Former Minister Jorge Burgos (DC) – Speculative
Former Governor Francisco Huenchumilla (DC) - Speculative
Mayor Daniel Jadue (PC) - Speculative
Deputy and Party Chairman Guillermo Teillier (PC) - Speculative

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced
Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Announced
Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN) - Announced
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced
Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, gathering signatures

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March
Deputy Jaime Bellolio (UDI) - Speculative
Former Mayor Francisco de la Maza (UDI) - Speculative

PRO

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud)

Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative

Frente Amplio?

Activist Luis Mesina (IND) - Speculative
Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative
Union Leader Cristian Cuevas (IND) - Speculative
Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Independent, Other:

Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced
Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) - Announced
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced
Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Speculative
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« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2016, 07:20:41 AM »

November 7th-November 21st:

Chile Vamos Primary:

  • Former President Piñera suffered a heavy blow as a scandal developed, revealing a company of his had acquired shares from Peruvian fishing companies in the middle of The Hague's decision pertaining the Chile-Peru maritime dispute. Piñera claims not knowing at the time and Chile Vamos (except Ossandon) defend him, whereas the left is trying to shoot to kill. 59% don't believe Piñera, so he'll probably take a huge hit.
  • Felipe Kast (EVOPOLI) and Manuel Jose Ossandon (IND) fully assume their roles as the challengers to Piñera, starting to actively campaign across the country in search for votes. Ossandon has targeted the vote of Chileans living outside the country and taken a very conservative profile on social issues, whereas Kast appears as the champion of the liberal right.
  • Chile Vamos parties are expected to make their definitions in the next weeks and months. Evopoli is behind Kast and the Partido Regionalista Independiente (PRI) is in the tank for Piñera, meaning that the largest parties (RN and UDI) will be forced to make a decision sooner rather than later.

Nueva Mayoria Primary:

  • Former President Lagos continues to draw open fire from the left, his presidential campaign finding serious obstacles on his attempt to stage a comeback. Guiller continues his meteoric rise as the anti-Lagos candidate and the seemingly most electable choice, but remains coy about whether he'll run or not.
  • The Encuentro Nacional de lzquierda Socialista (a group of the left-wing of the PS) formally proclaimed Fernando Atria as a presidential candidate, making a PS primary more or less inevitable. It is expected Atria and Lagos will contest the primary for the party's endorsement, which will be absolutely key. Atria is also in talks with the student movement, and the potential "Frente Amplio" of the left.
  • High tensions continue in the Government after Bachelet did only a minor cabinet reshuffle of three ministers, stating her full confidence on the more important ministers (which have been heavily criticized from the Nueva Mayoria parties). PR and DC remain critical of the Government itself, and the Communists have clashed with the Government over pay raises to the public sector. A break-up of a party from the coalition is not impossible.

Others:

  • The Partido Ecologista and Partido Poder Ciudadano signed a pact to contest the Parliamentary elections next year jointly, and left the option for a joint presidential candidate open. Both parties scored almost 2% in the Municipal Election, winning 2 Mayors and 14 Counciliors.
  • Known Academic Carola Canelo, known for her harsh comments on several political figures early this year, has launched an independent bid for the Presidency and started gathering signatures. Canelo describes herself as a citizen candidate (and leans heavily to the left), and was one of the key figures in the impeachment of Education Minister Harald Beyer during the Piñera Administration.
  • The center-liberal coalition Sentido Futuro is going through a complicated phase, as their leaders Andres Velasco (Ciudadanos) and Lily Perez (Amplitud) eye runs for the Senate instead of the Presidential race. Little-known lawyer Sebastian Sichel has been raised as the Ciudadanos candidate, amidst fears Amplitud could end up backing Piñera at their convention next week.
  • The long awaited Frente Amplio for the left begins to take form as former student movement leaders join forces. At least 10-12 political parties from the left (all small) are prepared to join a coalition, hold presidential primaries and contest a common parliamentary list, hoping to capitalize on a good performance at the municipal election. Tentative names current put forward for the presidential are activist Luis Mesina or union leader Cristian Cuevas. The Frente Amplio is also trying to temp the PC to join its coalition and leave Nueva Mayoria.
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« Reply #24 on: November 22, 2016, 05:18:09 PM »

The scrambling gets more intense as December is near, and two new candidates jump into the fray:

  • Renovación Nacional (RN) is set to have its own national convention soon after completing their internal elections, expected to end with the reelection of the current leadership. With Senator Alberto Espina and Senator Francisco Chahuan's pre-campaigns not having gone particularly well, rumour has it both Espina and Chahuan will drop soon, with RN being forced into a vote in January to choose between Piñera and Ossandon.

  • After (surprisingly) not been invited to join the cabinet, former Interior Minister Jose Miguel Insulza has resigned his diplomatic position in order to focus on his presidential campaign, thought to be close to an end a few days ago. Insulza is expected to contest a PS primary against Fernando Atria now, possibly with Lagos in the mix.

  • Two former candidates from the 2013 jump into the ring again: Marcel Claude, the polemic hard-left candidate who got between 2-3%, and Tomás Jocelyn Holt, famous for being the candidate with the lowest share of the vote since democracy returned (0,38%). Claude intends to contest a "citizens primary" with other leftist candidates, whereas Jocelyn-Holt aims for the impossible and wishes to gather enough signatures to go the first round again.
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