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  NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1
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Author Topic: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1  (Read 1416 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: October 24, 2016, 12:01:54 pm »

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 46%
Johnson - 4%

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NC_102416/
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2016, 12:04:26 pm »

wtf?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2016, 12:05:19 pm »

It was 44/42/7 in late August, btw.

White, and especially male numbers are staying very strong for Trump, unsurprisingly. I assume they were renewed in their desire to elect him after learning he's a serial sexual assaulter.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 12:06:06 pm »

They also have McCrory up 1 and Burr up 6, so it seems like a bit of an R friendly sample.
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Figueira
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2016, 12:06:54 pm »

They also have McCrory up 1 and Burr up 6, so it seems like a bit of an R friendly sample.

Yep. Hopefully this is an outlier rather than the one poll that ends up getting it right.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2016, 12:08:33 pm »

Here are how they report the demos:

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-Reported

33% Republican 37% Independent 30% Democrat

46% Male 54% Female

23% 18-34 24% 35-49 30% 50-64 23% 65+

72% White 21% Black 2% Hispanic 5% Other
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2016, 12:09:15 pm »

Clinton hasn't been behind in a non-junky 50-state poll since the first debate and her current average is 2.3 on RCP. You are going to have some polls at a 1% lead with that average.
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2016, 12:09:54 pm »

Still in the lead!  TREMENDOUS!!!
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2016, 12:12:46 pm »

Still, a lead is a lead. I'll take it.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2016, 12:13:14 pm »

Here are how they report the demos:

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-Reported

33% Republican 37% Independent 30% Democrat

46% Male 54% Female

23% 18-34 24% 35-49 30% 50-64 23% 65+

72% White 21% Black 2% Hispanic 5% Other
StatesPoll! We need you over here stat!
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2016, 12:13:33 pm »

crap... I expected a +3 or at least a +2. This one shows McCrory in the lead but the PPP sample showed Cooper.

i trust Monmouth more than I do PPP though
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2016, 12:13:45 pm »

Monmouth is a good pollster, but they do use somewhat small sample sizes, so a single poll can be prone to MoE noise.

I'm not gonna unskew, but this sample is R+3, and I would be shocked if that actually happened.  The fact that Clinton is up 1 in such a R friendly sample actually seems like good news for Clinton.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2016, 12:14:05 pm »

Here are how they report the demos:

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-Reported

33% Republican 37% Independent 30% Democrat

46% Male 54% Female

23% 18-34 24% 35-49 30% 50-64 23% 65+

72% White 21% Black 2% Hispanic 5% Other

Big ID clash with PPP, who has it as 43% Dem, 34% GOP, 23% Indy/Other
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dspNY
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2016, 12:14:36 pm »

This is the 15th consecutive NC poll with a Clinton lead
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Arch
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2016, 12:15:56 pm »

A lead is a lead is a lead.
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TC 25
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2016, 12:23:22 pm »

A lead is a lead, but a shaky, shaky one at that.

Hillary starting to hear footsteps.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2016, 12:23:48 pm »

Here are how they report the demos:

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-Reported

33% Republican 37% Independent 30% Democrat

46% Male 54% Female

23% 18-34 24% 35-49 30% 50-64 23% 65+

72% White 21% Black 2% Hispanic 5% Other

Big ID clash with PPP, who has it as 43% Dem, 34% GOP, 23% Indy/Other

What this is telling me is that with even with a very Republican sample, Clinton is a head. Turnout will obviously be critical in North Carolina.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2016, 12:24:31 pm »

Quote
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2016, 12:25:54 pm »

Still, a lead is a lead. I'll take it.
Especially in a must-win state for Trump!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2016, 12:30:09 pm »
« Edited: October 24, 2016, 12:32:05 pm by Happy Sad Trumpista »

Here are how they report the demos:

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-Reported

33% Republican 37% Independent 30% Democrat

46% Male 54% Female

23% 18-34 24% 35-49 30% 50-64 23% 65+

72% White 21% Black 2% Hispanic 5% Other

Big ID clash with PPP, who has it as 43% Dem, 34% GOP, 23% Indy/Other

What this is telling me is that with even with a very Republican sample, Clinton is a head. Turnout will obviously be critical in North Carolina.

IDK, seems like PPP included D/R leaners, while Monmouth didn't.  PPP has 10% less INDs.
But, Monmouth has big MOE.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2016, 01:04:58 pm »

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Dave Leip
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2016, 01:23:40 pm »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Monmouth University on 2016-10-23

Summary: D: 47%, R: 46%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2016, 01:38:32 pm »

They also have McCrory up 1 and Burr up 6, so it seems like a bit of an R friendly sample.

lol k
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Gass3268
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« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2016, 01:40:14 pm »

They also have McCrory up 1 and Burr up 6, so it seems like a bit of an R friendly sample.

lol k

Yeah, this tells me that even great Republican turnout, Clinton will still win NC.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2016, 02:29:10 pm »

They also have McCrory up 1 and Burr up 6, so it seems like a bit of an R friendly sample.

lol k

Yeah, this tells me that even great Republican turnout, Clinton will still win NC.

In North Carolina, Democrats are already ahead of where they were in 2008 and 2012 in terms of early voting.

Of cause, things can change in the days ahead, but the early voting numbers make me cautiously optimistic.
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