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  SD-Mason Dixon/Keloland TV: Trump +7
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Author Topic: SD-Mason Dixon/Keloland TV: Trump +7  (Read 1719 times)
Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« on: October 24, 2016, 11:32:19 pm »
« edited: October 25, 2016, 12:05:56 am by Spooky Mike »

Trump 44%
Clinton 37%
Johnson 7%

http://www.keloland.com/news/article/politics/kelo-tv-poll-presidential-election
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Arch
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2016, 11:33:06 pm »

Um, wow. That's extremely low. He's one more scandal away from losing SD, it seems.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2016, 11:35:26 pm »

This could definitely be closer than it was in 2008 (McCain +8.41), but Trump doesn't seem to be at any risk of actually losing it.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 11:36:07 pm »

Um, wow. That's extremely low. He's one more scandal away from losing SD, it seems.

#ALWAYSHILLARY in the primary isn't meaningless....
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Holmes
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2016, 11:40:58 pm »

She could win it if she poured money in it and visited a few times, but there's really no point.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2016, 11:41:48 pm »

lol wut

more evidence that his collapse is more in (regular person) red states than in (regular person) blue states.
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Arch
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2016, 11:42:55 pm »

lol wut

more evidence that his collapse is more in (regular person) red states than in (regular person) blue states.

Could you expand on this for me? I'm lost in the formulation of the wording.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2016, 11:45:46 pm »

lol wut

more evidence that his collapse is more in (regular person) red states than in (regular person) blue states.

Could you expand on this for me? I'm lost in the formulation of the wording.

sure - It feels like Trump is tanking hard in states like Utah, South Dakota, Idaho, and Kansas, even as he seems to be holding on in Ohio, Iowa, or even generic blue states where it seems his numbers aren't that much worse than generic Republicans.

I suspect the reason is right-leaning independents rather than Republicans.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2016, 11:46:31 pm »

Happy SD farmers strike again!

But really, this is yet another state in which Trump is underperforming Romney. I'd like to see how the unholy trinity of the LA Times, IBD, and Ras somehow make this math work, considering dozens of state polls and all the other national polls disagree with them.
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Scott 🤡🌏
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2016, 11:52:29 pm »

Quite off from cinyc's Google poll.

Guess we'll see who's right.
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Arch
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2016, 11:54:07 pm »

lol wut

more evidence that his collapse is more in (regular person) red states than in (regular person) blue states.

Could you expand on this for me? I'm lost in the formulation of the wording.

sure - It feels like Trump is tanking hard in states like Utah, South Dakota, Idaho, and Kansas, even as he seems to be holding on in Ohio, Iowa, or even generic blue states where it seems his numbers aren't that much worse than generic Republicans.

I suspect the reason is right-leaning independents rather than Republicans.

Fair point. Thanks Smiley
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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2016, 12:01:38 am »

This is a Mason-Dixon poll of 400 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the election, so probably LVs.  It was conducted October 18-20:

http://assets.keloland.com/images/docs/default-source/Elections/keloland-campaign-2016-poll/2016poll_howpollconducted.pdf?sfvrsn=4
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cinyc
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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2016, 12:06:40 am »
« Edited: October 25, 2016, 12:12:13 am by cinyc »

Quite off from cinyc's Google poll.

Guess we'll see who's right.

The answer will likely be somewhere in the middle.  Mason-Dixon doesn't appear to have pushed undecideds as much as I did by omitting the answer entirely.  

But I'd trust a Mason-Dixon poll over a one-question Google Consumer Survey poll any day.  The one-question GCS polls are fraught with every possible methodological polling error - no real RV screen, no real LV screen, no real proof all respondents are from the state, etc., etc., etc.  You get what you pay for.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2016, 12:09:15 am »

Actually not too surprised considering that 30% of the population is based in Minnehaha County that actually voted narrowly for Obama in '08, and is one the top 50 most rapidly growing counties in the US.

Had some friends from Sioux Falls back in the days that moved to Southern Oregon, and not surprised that this part of the state is swing hard against Trump.

The Eastern part of the state is also heavily dominated by ethnic Germans and Scandinavians that are generally moderate and pragmatic on both domestic and foreign policy items, and decry extremism with a collective memory of the Anti-German hysteria of the WW I and WW II era where newspapers were banned and people were rounded up and considered foreign sympathizers for no reason other than their ethnicity and country of origin.

Western part of the state is obviously the most Republican, dominated more by larger ranching and dairy interests, along with massive resentment against the "unequal Rights that Native Americans enjoy". Hopefully I'm wrong on that, and maybe some of our friends on the forum can straighten out the history of the Lakota Sioux and Wounded Knee, and why that part of the state has become so overwhelmingly Republican.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2016, 12:13:55 am »

Interesting.
But (unfortunately) trump will hold it.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2016, 12:19:15 am »

Come on, Happy Farmers, you can do it! Take a dump on Trump!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2016, 12:38:37 am »

This could definitely be closer than it was in 2008 (McCain +8.41), but Trump doesn't seem to be at any risk of actually losing it.

It is beginning to look like 2008... maybe Hillary Clinton would make appearances in Sioux Falls and Rapid City if she saw Senator Thune vulnerable.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2016, 12:41:41 am »
« Edited: October 25, 2016, 12:44:20 am by NOVA Green »

Trump is more than likely to hold it baring and absolute collapse, but regardless there is still a strong collective memory that goes back to the days of the Farmer Co-Ops in the Eastern part of the state, the New Deal that married both the interests of agricultural producers and urban consumers within a collective national history of the "Great Generation".

A generation that both defeated Nazism and Fascism in Europe and Asia, while simultaneously protecting the interests of rural producers and urban consumers during the Great Depression.

These memories are not yet forgotten in rural parts of America, including South Dakota.... and here is a song from Alabama back in the days that even calls out props for Kansas Wheatfield farmers, as one of the classic working-class anthems from the 1980s.

"Forty Hour Week for a Living"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-G2J3RzURA
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cinyc
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« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2016, 12:42:27 am »

It is beginning to look like 2008... maybe Hillary Clinton would make appearances in Sioux Falls and Rapid City if she saw Senator Thune vulnerable.

Thune is running up against a no-name Democrat with little or no money.  He's safe.
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Francesco Privitera
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« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2016, 02:24:07 am »

I guess airing ads in SD would cost close to nothing...
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2016, 03:41:50 am »

Where is Clinton's 50 state strategy when we need it? She should be running adds in states like Alaska, South Dakota and Kansas. Perhaps even in Montana, who knows? There haven't been many polls from there recently I think? Hold a rally with Brian "we don't need dynasties in America" Schweitzer at some point. Tongue Would be hilarious, but probably somewhat effective. The unity message.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2016, 07:07:01 am »

New Poll: South Dakota President by Mason-Dixon on 2016-10-20

Summary: D: 37%, R: 44%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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