Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2019, 05:06:40 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  SD-Mason Dixon/Keloland TV: Trump +7
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: SD-Mason Dixon/Keloland TV: Trump +7  (Read 1453 times)
Buh her emails!
diskymike44
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,388


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 24, 2016, 11:32:19 pm »

Trump 44%
Clinton 37%
Johnson 7%

http://www.keloland.com/news/article/politics/kelo-tv-poll-presidential-election
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 12:05:56 am by Spooky Mike »Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,975
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2016, 11:33:06 pm »

Um, wow. That's extremely low. He's one more scandal away from losing SD, it seems.
Logged
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,702
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2016, 11:35:26 pm »

This could definitely be closer than it was in 2008 (McCain +8.41), but Trump doesn't seem to be at any risk of actually losing it.
Logged
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,702
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 11:36:07 pm »

Um, wow. That's extremely low. He's one more scandal away from losing SD, it seems.

#ALWAYSHILLARY in the primary isn't meaningless....
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,649
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2016, 11:40:58 pm »

She could win it if she poured money in it and visited a few times, but there's really no point.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2016, 11:41:48 pm »

lol wut

more evidence that his collapse is more in (regular person) red states than in (regular person) blue states.
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,975
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2016, 11:42:55 pm »

lol wut

more evidence that his collapse is more in (regular person) red states than in (regular person) blue states.

Could you expand on this for me? I'm lost in the formulation of the wording.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2016, 11:45:46 pm »

lol wut

more evidence that his collapse is more in (regular person) red states than in (regular person) blue states.

Could you expand on this for me? I'm lost in the formulation of the wording.

sure - It feels like Trump is tanking hard in states like Utah, South Dakota, Idaho, and Kansas, even as he seems to be holding on in Ohio, Iowa, or even generic blue states where it seems his numbers aren't that much worse than generic Republicans.

I suspect the reason is right-leaning independents rather than Republicans.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2016, 11:46:31 pm »

Happy SD farmers strike again!

But really, this is yet another state in which Trump is underperforming Romney. I'd like to see how the unholy trinity of the LA Times, IBD, and Ras somehow make this math work, considering dozens of state polls and all the other national polls disagree with them.
Logged
🌈Rainbow Jihad
Ascott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,235
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2016, 11:52:29 pm »

Quite off from cinyc's Google poll.

Guess we'll see who's right.
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,975
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2016, 11:54:07 pm »

lol wut

more evidence that his collapse is more in (regular person) red states than in (regular person) blue states.

Could you expand on this for me? I'm lost in the formulation of the wording.

sure - It feels like Trump is tanking hard in states like Utah, South Dakota, Idaho, and Kansas, even as he seems to be holding on in Ohio, Iowa, or even generic blue states where it seems his numbers aren't that much worse than generic Republicans.

I suspect the reason is right-leaning independents rather than Republicans.

Fair point. Thanks Smiley
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,618


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2016, 12:01:38 am »

This is a Mason-Dixon poll of 400 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the election, so probably LVs.  It was conducted October 18-20:

http://assets.keloland.com/images/docs/default-source/Elections/keloland-campaign-2016-poll/2016poll_howpollconducted.pdf?sfvrsn=4
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,618


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2016, 12:06:40 am »

Quite off from cinyc's Google poll.

Guess we'll see who's right.

The answer will likely be somewhere in the middle.  Mason-Dixon doesn't appear to have pushed undecideds as much as I did by omitting the answer entirely.  

But I'd trust a Mason-Dixon poll over a one-question Google Consumer Survey poll any day.  The one-question GCS polls are fraught with every possible methodological polling error - no real RV screen, no real LV screen, no real proof all respondents are from the state, etc., etc., etc.  You get what you pay for.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 12:12:13 am by cinyc »Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,473
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2016, 12:09:15 am »

Actually not too surprised considering that 30% of the population is based in Minnehaha County that actually voted narrowly for Obama in '08, and is one the top 50 most rapidly growing counties in the US.

Had some friends from Sioux Falls back in the days that moved to Southern Oregon, and not surprised that this part of the state is swing hard against Trump.

The Eastern part of the state is also heavily dominated by ethnic Germans and Scandinavians that are generally moderate and pragmatic on both domestic and foreign policy items, and decry extremism with a collective memory of the Anti-German hysteria of the WW I and WW II era where newspapers were banned and people were rounded up and considered foreign sympathizers for no reason other than their ethnicity and country of origin.

Western part of the state is obviously the most Republican, dominated more by larger ranching and dairy interests, along with massive resentment against the "unequal Rights that Native Americans enjoy". Hopefully I'm wrong on that, and maybe some of our friends on the forum can straighten out the history of the Lakota Sioux and Wounded Knee, and why that part of the state has become so overwhelmingly Republican.
Logged
ProudModerate2
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,608
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2016, 12:13:55 am »

Interesting.
But (unfortunately) trump will hold it.
Logged
NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,590
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2016, 12:19:15 am »

Come on, Happy Farmers, you can do it! Take a dump on Trump!
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,933
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2016, 12:38:37 am »

This could definitely be closer than it was in 2008 (McCain +8.41), but Trump doesn't seem to be at any risk of actually losing it.

It is beginning to look like 2008... maybe Hillary Clinton would make appearances in Sioux Falls and Rapid City if she saw Senator Thune vulnerable.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,473
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2016, 12:41:41 am »

Trump is more than likely to hold it baring and absolute collapse, but regardless there is still a strong collective memory that goes back to the days of the Farmer Co-Ops in the Eastern part of the state, the New Deal that married both the interests of agricultural producers and urban consumers within a collective national history of the "Great Generation".

A generation that both defeated Nazism and Fascism in Europe and Asia, while simultaneously protecting the interests of rural producers and urban consumers during the Great Depression.

These memories are not yet forgotten in rural parts of America, including South Dakota.... and here is a song from Alabama back in the days that even calls out props for Kansas Wheatfield farmers, as one of the classic working-class anthems from the 1980s.

"Forty Hour Week for a Living"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-G2J3RzURA
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 12:44:20 am by NOVA Green »Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,618


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2016, 12:42:27 am »

It is beginning to look like 2008... maybe Hillary Clinton would make appearances in Sioux Falls and Rapid City if she saw Senator Thune vulnerable.

Thune is running up against a no-name Democrat with little or no money.  He's safe.
Logged
Worried Italian Progressive
italian-boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,613
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2016, 02:24:07 am »

I guess airing ads in SD would cost close to nothing...
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,811
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2016, 03:41:50 am »

Where is Clinton's 50 state strategy when we need it? She should be running adds in states like Alaska, South Dakota and Kansas. Perhaps even in Montana, who knows? There haven't been many polls from there recently I think? Hold a rally with Brian "we don't need dynasties in America" Schweitzer at some point. Tongue Would be hilarious, but probably somewhat effective. The unity message.
Logged
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,593
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2016, 05:46:08 am »

You have to be a special kind of delusional to think that Clinton will win SD or MT.
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,288
United States


P P
View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2016, 07:07:01 am »

New Poll: South Dakota President by Mason-Dixon on 2016-10-20

Summary: D: 37%, R: 44%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout


Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies
 

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines