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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Remington/Axiom: Tie in FL, Trump up in NV/NC/OH, Clinton up PA/VA/WI/CO (search mode)
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Author Topic: Remington/Axiom: Tie in FL, Trump up in NV/NC/OH, Clinton up PA/VA/WI/CO  (Read 2441 times)
IceSpear
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Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« on: October 25, 2016, 01:16:26 pm »

Sh-t polls, but I think it's time for Team Hillary to start thinking about that next big oppo hit. There's enough evidence to suggest that things are slowly trickling back in Trump's direction. If we don't get anything soon, I'm inclined to believe there's nothing left. Which is too bad, because they should have known there'd be two weeks at the end of the campaign with no built-in attention-grabbing events to prevent the campaign from starting to naturally feel stale. And boringness helps Trump.

Yeah, just look at this Trump surge in the making:

Img
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IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,874
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2016, 01:44:28 pm »

^ The same could have been said at pretty much every point in the race when Trump did actually begin to surge (though I would characterize these periods as Hillary slowly collapsing, not Trump surging). Plus, these periods have been dominated by characteristics similar to what we're seeing now. Namely, a certain kind of quiet from Trump and a pause or staleness in the overarching narrative of the election. It gives reporters a chance to dig into Hillary bullsh-t, and slowly everyone chips away at her numbers.

Trump has enough evidence now to know that he might as well avoid serious controversy, and there's not really anything on the horizon that could shake up the race. The gravity of Hillary's poll numbers will just naturally start to bring her back down to earth unless they're deliberately held up by a new narrative.

I want to stress that it's not major enough for her to actually lose, but +5 isn't exactly fantastic when we know she has the potential to do so much better in this match-up. And if they are sitting on a big oppo hit, let's get it out there in the next half a week.

Eh, I don't really agree that she can do "so much better" than a 5 point win. I think her ceiling is a 7-8 point win. 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D).

I just don't get why you think there's evidence of a Trump resurgence. HuffPost has it flat, she has her biggest lead ever on RCP's map that includes toss ups, Trump has collapsed in Texas recently, and aside from this GOP pollster she's consistently led in FL/NC. Even the junky daily trackers which were Trump's bulwark now show Hillary ahead.
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