AZ-Monmouth: Trump +1
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #25 on: October 25, 2016, 12:34:35 PM »

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

And you are so sure of that why exactly ?

This could bring significantly more voters into his column in the next few weeks IMO, who wavered in their support before ...

look at his god damn debate performances dude

Sure, but I'm still not fully convinced that Hillary has sealed this election yet.

If anything, she'll probably win with CO+VA and lose other currently close states (such as FL and NC) in the end.

Both FL and NC are clearly Lean D right now.

The emphasis is on "right now" ... This could change though.

Both of which are already voting.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #26 on: October 25, 2016, 12:35:57 PM »

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

And you are so sure of that why exactly ?

This could bring significantly more voters into his column in the next few weeks IMO, who wavered in their support before ...

look at his god damn debate performances dude

Sure, but I'm still not fully convinced that Hillary has sealed this election yet.

If anything, she'll probably win with CO+VA and lose other currently close states (such as FL and NC) in the end.

Both FL and NC are clearly Lean D right now.

The emphasis is on "right now" ... This could change though.

Huge chunks have already voted in both states, Clinton clearly leads with folks already banking votes.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #27 on: October 25, 2016, 12:36:33 PM »

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

And you are so sure of that why exactly ?

This could bring significantly more voters into his column in the next few weeks IMO, who wavered in their support before ...

look at his god damn debate performances dude

Sure, but I'm still not fully convinced that Hillary has sealed this election yet.

If anything, she'll probably win with CO+VA and lose other currently close states (such as FL and NC) in the end.

Both FL and NC are clearly Lean D right now.

The emphasis is on "right now" ... This could change though.

We have two weeks. Thats not alot of time for Hillary to implode.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #28 on: October 25, 2016, 12:36:51 PM »

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

And you are so sure of that why exactly ?

This could bring significantly more voters into his column in the next few weeks IMO, who wavered in their support before ...

look at his god damn debate performances dude

Sure, but I'm still not fully convinced that Hillary has sealed this election yet.

If anything, she'll probably win with CO+VA and lose other currently close states (such as FL and NC) in the end.

Both FL and NC are clearly Lean D right now.

The emphasis is on "right now" ... This could change though.

If your argument is "I have nothing, but it could theoretically change", you have a weird understanding of the word "probably", or rather, one tainted by a temporary sickness that will lift in early November.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #29 on: October 25, 2016, 12:39:22 PM »

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

And you are so sure of that why exactly ?

This could bring significantly more voters into his column in the next few weeks IMO, who wavered in their support before ...

look at his god damn debate performances dude

Sure, but I'm still not fully convinced that Hillary has sealed this election yet.

If anything, she'll probably win with CO+VA and lose other currently close states (such as FL and NC) in the end.

Both FL and NC are clearly Lean D right now.

The emphasis is on "right now" ... This could change though.

She can lose FL, NC, OH, IA, AZ, NV and ME-02 and still get 272 EVs. She has already won, even if she loses all the actual swing states.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #30 on: October 25, 2016, 12:40:09 PM »

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

And you are so sure of that why exactly ?

This could bring significantly more voters into his column in the next few weeks IMO, who wavered in their support before ...

look at his god damn debate performances dude

Sure, but I'm still not fully convinced that Hillary has sealed this election yet.

If anything, she'll probably win with CO+VA and lose other currently close states (such as FL and NC) in the end.

I have said this before. But Tender descent into full blown hack is one of the saddest stories of this election cycle.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #31 on: October 25, 2016, 12:41:12 PM »

I'm just warning you guys not to get too rollicking, that's all.

A lot can still change ...

I remember that back in 2004, many Democrats thought Kerry would win and were surprised he didn't. So I'm just careful this time. But don't get me wrong: Even I think Hillary is clearly favoured (based on polls in VA and CO).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #32 on: October 25, 2016, 12:44:17 PM »

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

And you are so sure of that why exactly ?

This could bring significantly more voters into his column in the next few weeks IMO, who wavered in their support before ...

look at his god damn debate performances dude

Sure, but I'm still not fully convinced that Hillary has sealed this election yet.

If anything, she'll probably win with CO+VA and lose other currently close states (such as FL and NC) in the end.

I have said this before. But Tender descent into full blown hack is one of the saddest stories of this election cycle.

Why am I a hack, if I only argue for caution about the outcome and when I dislike both Hillary and Trump ?
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #33 on: October 25, 2016, 12:46:33 PM »



Still a victory, Clinton just needs to win VA, NH, CO and CO. None are actual swing states.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #34 on: October 25, 2016, 12:47:26 PM »

I'm just warning you guys not to get too rollicking, that's all.

A lot can still change ...

I remember that back in 2004, many Democrats thought Kerry would win and were surprised he didn't. So I'm just careful this time. But don't get me wrong: Even I think Hillary is clearly favoured (based on polls in VA and CO).

Democrats in 2004 had no basis to think that because Kerry was behind in the polls. That has no bearing on this race. It's a complete non-sequitor. I mean you've been on this forum for years you should probably know better.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #35 on: October 25, 2016, 12:50:59 PM »

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

And you are so sure of that why exactly ?

This could bring significantly more voters into his column in the next few weeks IMO, who wavered in their support before ...

look at his god damn debate performances dude

Sure, but I'm still not fully convinced that Hillary has sealed this election yet.

If anything, she'll probably win with CO+VA and lose other currently close states (such as FL and NC) in the end.

I have said this before. But Tender descent into full blown hack is one of the saddest stories of this election cycle.

Why am I a hack, if I only argue for caution about the outcome and when I dislike both Hillary and Trump ?

You are a hack because every single one of your takes is based on your Clinton derangement syndrome. If this was Obama, Bernie etc. You wouldn't be making some these silly arguments that you have made this cycle.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #36 on: October 25, 2016, 12:54:20 PM »

I'm just warning you guys not to get too rollicking, that's all.

A lot can still change ...

I remember that back in 2004, many Democrats thought Kerry would win and were surprised he didn't. So I'm just careful this time. But don't get me wrong: Even I think Hillary is clearly favoured (based on polls in VA and CO).

Those are only the foolhardy ones. Most polls showed Bush as the favorite and as a Kerry supporter, I expected it.

Presidential Election polls in America are fairly accurate. It's the midterms that's the problem due to lower turnout. We would have to see polls being wrong at a historic level for Trump to win.

Also, during Presidential years, usually if there is a somewhat significant bias, it has a Republican bias.

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #37 on: October 25, 2016, 12:56:07 PM »

Probably close to 10 Million people have voted already, and there's literally just two weeks left. The time to change this race for Trump was weeks, if not months ago.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #38 on: October 25, 2016, 12:58:30 PM »

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

And you are so sure of that why exactly ?

This could bring significantly more voters into his column in the next few weeks IMO, who wavered in their support before ...

look at his god damn debate performances dude

Sure, but I'm still not fully convinced that Hillary has sealed this election yet.

If anything, she'll probably win with CO+VA and lose other currently close states (such as FL and NC) in the end.

I have said this before. But Tender descent into full blown hack is one of the saddest stories of this election cycle.

Why am I a hack, if I only argue for caution about the outcome and when I dislike both Hillary and Trump ?

You are a hack because every single one of your takes is based on your Clinton derangement syndrome. If this was Obama, Bernie etc. You wouldn't be making some these silly arguments that you have made this cycle.

It is my right to attack a candidate I don't like. And Hillary and Trump qualify for this, Obama and Bernie not. HDS is not a real thing though.
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Confused Democrat
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« Reply #39 on: October 25, 2016, 01:00:17 PM »

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

And you are so sure of that why exactly ?

This could bring significantly more voters into his column in the next few weeks IMO, who wavered in their support before ...

look at his god damn debate performances dude

Sure, but I'm still not fully convinced that Hillary has sealed this election yet.

If anything, she'll probably win with CO+VA and lose other currently close states (such as FL and NC) in the end.

Both FL and NC are clearly Lean D right now.

The emphasis is on "right now" ... This could change though.

Yea, she'll pull off a stunning upset and carry GA, AZ, and TX.

Clinton's chances of winning Georgia are better than Trump's chances of winning Florida according to 538.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #40 on: October 25, 2016, 01:00:26 PM »

Probably close to 10 Million people have voted already, and there's literally just two weeks left. The time to change this race for Trump was weeks, if not months ago.

Nope. In Austria 15% of people voted early and they broke 65-35% for the center-left candidate. The far-right candidate still kept the race close though in the end, losing just 49.7 to 50.3

Much will also depend on the election day vote in many states ...
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #41 on: October 25, 2016, 01:05:42 PM »

Probably close to 10 Million people have voted already, and there's literally just two weeks left. The time to change this race for Trump was weeks, if not months ago.

Nope. In Austria 15% of people voted early and they broke 65-35% for the center-left candidate. The far-right candidate still kept the race close though in the end, losing just 49.7 to 50.3

Much will also depend on the election day vote in many states ...
This isn't Austria.  Stop trying to compare the two.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #42 on: October 25, 2016, 01:08:22 PM »

Probably close to 10 Million people have voted already, and there's literally just two weeks left. The time to change this race for Trump was weeks, if not months ago.

Nope. In Austria 15% of people voted early and they broke 65-35% for the center-left candidate. The far-right candidate still kept the race close though in the end, losing just 49.7 to 50.3

Much will also depend on the election day vote in many states ...
This isn't Austria.  Stop trying to compare the two.

Dude, I know that.

But he was arguing that Trump couldn't win anymore just because 5% of people in some states have already voted.

I posted an example that this is not the case. Trump could still win because 95% have not voted yet.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #43 on: October 25, 2016, 01:08:54 PM »

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

And you are so sure of that why exactly ?

This could bring significantly more voters into his column in the next few weeks IMO, who wavered in their support before ...

look at his god damn debate performances dude

Sure, but I'm still not fully convinced that Hillary has sealed this election yet.

If anything, she'll probably win with CO+VA and lose other currently close states (such as FL and NC) in the end.

I have said this before. But Tender descent into full blown hack is one of the saddest stories of this election cycle.

Why am I a hack, if I only argue for caution about the outcome and when I dislike both Hillary and Trump ?

You are a hack because every single one of your takes is based on your Clinton derangement syndrome. If this was Obama, Bernie etc. You wouldn't be making some these silly arguments that you have made this cycle.

It is my right to attack a candidate I don't like. And Hillary and Trump qualify for this, Obama and Bernie not. HDS is not a real thing though.

Except you're not attacking her, just concern trolling to the absurd.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #44 on: October 25, 2016, 01:11:09 PM »

jesus christ tender
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Yank2133
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« Reply #45 on: October 25, 2016, 01:11:26 PM »

Just heard on CNN that Obamacare premiums are increasing 110% (!!!) next year in AZ.

If this is true, it's game over for Hillary in AZ ...

(Btw, why not cap Obamacare premium increases at the rate of annual inflation over the past year ?. It's pretty silly from a European perspective that there are such huge increases in premiums over a year.)

It's a matter of whether or not Trump is able to use that to any real effect - and he won't be.

And you are so sure of that why exactly ?

This could bring significantly more voters into his column in the next few weeks IMO, who wavered in their support before ...

look at his god damn debate performances dude

Sure, but I'm still not fully convinced that Hillary has sealed this election yet.

If anything, she'll probably win with CO+VA and lose other currently close states (such as FL and NC) in the end.

I have said this before. But Tender descent into full blown hack is one of the saddest stories of this election cycle.

Why am I a hack, if I only argue for caution about the outcome and when I dislike both Hillary and Trump ?

You are a hack because every single one of your takes is based on your Clinton derangement syndrome. If this was Obama, Bernie etc. You wouldn't be making some these silly arguments that you have made this cycle.

It is my right to attack a candidate I don't like. And Hillary and Trump qualify for this, Obama and Bernie not. HDS is not a real thing though.

You can do whatever you want. But don't expect anyone to take you seriously when your arguments aren't backed by evidence, but hatred of the candidate.
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Smeulders
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« Reply #46 on: October 25, 2016, 01:11:32 PM »


Interesting to note is the "4-in-10 say they have already voted". Elect project currently says about 0.5 million early votes have been cast in Arizona. If 4-in-10 eventual voters had actually already cast their ballot would be correct, this would imply about 1.25 million voters in total. In 2012 however, there were a total of 2.3 million votes in Arizona.

Even being very generous (lots of absentee ballots already sent back in but not yet registered) the discrepancy seems big. Does this say something Monmouth's LV screen? About self-selection of people willing to answer polls?
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #47 on: October 25, 2016, 01:13:15 PM »

Probably close to 10 Million people have voted already, and there's literally just two weeks left. The time to change this race for Trump was weeks, if not months ago.

Nope. In Austria 15% of people voted early and they broke 65-35% for the center-left candidate. The far-right candidate still kept the race close though in the end, losing just 49.7 to 50.3

Much will also depend on the election day vote in many states ...
This isn't Austria.  Stop trying to compare the two.

Dude, I know that.

But he was arguing that Trump couldn't win anymore just because 5% of people in some states have already voted.

I posted an example that this is not the case. Trump could still win because 95% have not voted yet.
Tender take the damn concern trolling somewhere else.  You should have a life that has better things for you to do.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #48 on: October 25, 2016, 01:13:40 PM »

It's highly annoying to argue with a wall of die-hard Hillary supporters, who constantly liken me to a sweating dog ...

I'm no dog and it has only 3°C outside, so I'm certainly not sweating ...

But I will try to keep you guys down to earth in the next few weeks anyway ... Tongue
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #49 on: October 25, 2016, 01:14:19 PM »

Probably close to 10 Million people have voted already, and there's literally just two weeks left. The time to change this race for Trump was weeks, if not months ago.

Nope. In Austria 15% of people voted early and they broke 65-35% for the center-left candidate. The far-right candidate still kept the race close though in the end, losing just 49.7 to 50.3

Much will also depend on the election day vote in many states ...
Höfer lead the polls though!
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