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  2016 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL-Associated Industries of Florida: Rubio +5
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Author Topic: FL-Associated Industries of Florida: Rubio +5  (Read 359 times)
Castro
Castro2020
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« on: October 25, 2016, 07:21:10 pm »

Rubio - 43%
Murphy - 38%

Another pollster engaging in Party ID weighting...

Quote
We finished our second statewide survey track yesterday after taking last week off due to Hurricane Matthew. This track is an N=1,000 likely general election voter sample and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% with 30% of the interviews being conducted via cell phone. The sample details are in the attached slides and the partisan breaks are weighted to a 38% R 38 D% - 24% NMP. Based on the very early makeup of the vote by mail (VBM) returns and what we expect the final voter registration statistics for this election to look like, it seems safe to assume a D+1 electorate (or slightly more) is likely so this sample is slightly more Republican than what we believe the actual electorate in Florida will look like. We find Secretary Clinton holding a 3% lead over Donald Trump and Senator Rubio over Congressman Murphy by 5%.

Poll of likely voters was conducted on October 19.

http://static.politico.com/8a/b1/6632d7e147899c4489dd14a84e17/161024-states-statewidetrack.pdf
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2016, 07:22:22 pm »
« Edited: October 25, 2016, 07:26:06 pm by Comrade David »

Confirms the conclusions we can draw from most polls -- Rubio is up 3 or 4 and overperforms Trump by around 7. Won't be enough when the next scandal breaks. Tossup/Tilt D.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2016, 08:04:40 pm »

Not good numbers for Rubio!
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Vosem
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2016, 08:09:03 pm »

Honestly, unless the next scandal is incontrovertible proof that Trump set a child on fire at some point, I can't imagine it meaningfully harming him. Anybody still supporting him has justified the previous 50 scandals and it would be illogical for the fifty-first to matter
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DavidB.
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2016, 09:25:26 pm »

Honestly, unless the next scandal is incontrovertible proof that Trump set a child on fire at some point, I can't imagine it meaningfully harming him. Anybody still supporting him has justified the previous 50 scandals and it would be illogical for the fifty-first to matter
There were like 100 scandals before pussygate too and that one still hit him pretty badly. The biggest danger for Rubio is too many Republicans staying home because of a scandal breaking a few days before election day, and it's a very real danger. I am not confident about this race at all.
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2016, 10:26:34 pm »

Ugh, I'd rather Rubio won easily than by a tiny margin. Seeing him narrowly win just shows that this race was winnable. If Democrats lose MO/NC by more than FL, we'll know that the DSCC is incompetent.
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Shadows
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2016, 02:54:29 am »

Rubio is up by 4-5% odd & despite whatever efforts will in the end come up with a 5% odd margin of victory. This is like PA for the GOP, fool's gold!

It is better to put money in PA, NH & NC where all 3 races could be flipped with little money!
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