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Author Topic: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12  (Read 3000 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: October 25, 2016, 02:28:52 pm »

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1051/Dcor_Oct%20National_EAlert_10.25.2016_for%20release.pdf
https://twitter.com/DemCorps/status/790998887095873536



Their final poll.

Clinton 50
Trump 38
Johnson 5
Stein 2

Clinton 53
Trump 41

Four-way Vote (Clinton Trump)
Independents 36 37
Seniors 46 48
Men 43 43
White College Men 41 42
White Non-College Men 31 57

Women 56 33
Unmarried Women 59 31
White College Women 56 30
Millennials 59 20
Suburban 54 36
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 02:31:45 pm by HillOfANight »Logged
heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2016, 02:31:19 pm »

This is basically an internal, but it's not too far off from reality.
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2016, 02:33:05 pm »

Let me guess, RCP won't include this even after including like 10 Republican polls today.
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2016, 02:34:08 pm »

This is basically an internal, but it's not too far off from reality.
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2016, 02:35:27 pm »

Of course, and people are still debating whether Trump has a chance less than 2 weeks away.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2016, 02:36:14 pm »

THANK YOU!
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2016, 02:36:26 pm »

Blazing



If you cherry-pick and cut it down to last two elections only, they were dead on in 2008 and 2012.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 02:38:36 pm by BoAtlantis »Logged
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2016, 02:41:24 pm »

What was their final 2012 poll?
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Ronnie
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2016, 02:46:22 pm »

I think it's time we stop brushing off the idea that Hillary might actually win nationwide by double digits.
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2016, 02:47:48 pm »

I think it's time we stop brushing off the idea that Hillary might actually win nationwide by double digits.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2016, 02:48:01 pm »

What was their final 2012 poll?


Obama 49   
Romney 45

Nov 1 Nov 4, 2012
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2016, 02:49:31 pm »

What was their final 2012 poll?


Obama 49   
Romney 45

Nov 1 Nov 4, 2012
Wowee!
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Castro
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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2016, 02:50:53 pm »

Matches the ABC/WashPost 2-way and 4-way numbers exactly.
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« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2016, 02:52:01 pm »

Great result from a good firm but I don't know why they wouldn't wait another week before doing their final poll.
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2016, 02:53:37 pm »

What was their final 2012 poll?


Obama 49   
Romney 45

Nov 1 Nov 4, 2012

Their final poll was just a few days before the election in 2012.  Why are they doing their final poll two weeks before the election?

Hoping this is the final result!  If they have faith that the race will remain unchanged, then I won't question them.
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2016, 02:55:11 pm »

Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2016, 02:55:14 pm »

Let me guess, RCP won't include this even after including like 10 Republican polls today.

Very possible.

RCP stopped including this pollster in September 2012 while HuffPo included the October and November one.

I usually give RCP a break but their subtle tactics like this is the reason why they started losing credibility.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 02:56:45 pm by BoAtlantis »Logged
Castro
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« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2016, 02:57:44 pm »

Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2016, 03:16:07 pm »

Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Uh, Democrats would easily retake the House if they won the PV by 9 points (that remains quite unlikely though.) The House isn't THAT gerrymandered.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2016, 03:24:35 pm »

Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Uh, Democrats would easily retake the House if they won the PV by 9 points (that remains quite unlikely though.) The House isn't THAT gerrymandered.
I'm not sure about that. Dems are so concentrated in cities that they win practically uncontested in a lot of areas and are losing in so many rural areas or exurbs that they have a hard time keeping even (plus there's gerrymandering)
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2016, 03:32:29 pm »

Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Uh, Democrats would easily retake the House if they won the PV by 9 points (that remains quite unlikely though.) The House isn't THAT gerrymandered.
I'm not sure about that. Dems are so concentrated in cities that they win practically uncontested in a lot of areas and are losing in so many rural areas or exurbs that they have a hard time keeping even (plus there's gerrymandering)

Yes, but one consequence of gerrymandering is that in a number of states, it has concentrated Democrats in a few districts and spread the Republicans more evenly among a larger number of districts.  This has created more R-leaning districts; but the flip side is that they're not R by very much (R+2, R+3, R+4, etc.)  A large pro-D wave could exceed these levels and potentially flip quite a few of those seats.  But what may save the R majority is a D failure to recruit good candidates in some of these districts.
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« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2016, 03:37:03 pm »

Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Uh, Democrats would easily retake the House if they won the PV by 9 points (that remains quite unlikely though.) The House isn't THAT gerrymandered.
I'm not sure about that. Dems are so concentrated in cities that they win practically uncontested in a lot of areas and are losing in so many rural areas or exurbs that they have a hard time keeping even (plus there's gerrymandering)

If you do a uniform swing from the 2014 House results, a 9% national margin of victory for the Dems is (barely) enough to flip control of the House.  Actually, 7% gets you 1 seat short, but then there's a big gap for the final seat needed to flip control.

Of course, the swing won't be uniform.  But I'd say that number offers a rough idea of what would be necessary.  Anything between ~7 and 10%, and control of the House could go either way.
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« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2016, 03:40:09 pm »

Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Uh, Democrats would easily retake the House if they won the PV by 9 points (that remains quite unlikely though.) The House isn't THAT gerrymandered.
I'm not sure about that. Dems are so concentrated in cities that they win practically uncontested in a lot of areas and are losing in so many rural areas or exurbs that they have a hard time keeping even (plus there's gerrymandering)

If you do a uniform swing from the 2014 House results, a 9% national margin of victory for the Dems is (barely) enough to flip control of the House.  Actually, 7% gets you 1 seat short, but then there's a big gap for the final seat needed to flip control.

Of course, the swing won't be uniform.  But I'd say that number offers a rough idea of what would be necessary.


On top of that, some of the more marginal Pub seats have talented Pub incumbents. That is worth a few points off the top. Absent such incumbents, most of those marginals would go to the Dems this time.
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« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2016, 04:21:28 pm »

Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Ironically the Generic Ballot question in this Democracy Corps poll is R+1. This '9 pt simulation' is misunderstood - it's not a lead.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/gqr-d-democracy-corps-26432

That kind of generic ballot number goes against basically every other poll by a good bit and with a +12pt win in an era of significantly polarized politics and virtually non-existent ticket splitting, I think that generic result is impossible in such a large WH PV win. Even if more people do split tickets, it wouldn't come close to that with such a large Clinton win.

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1051/Dcor_Oct%20National_FQ_10.24.2016_ealert.pdf
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« Reply #24 on: October 25, 2016, 04:55:14 pm »

Let me guess, RCP won't include this even after including like 10 Republican polls today.

It would be smart to stop going to and mentioning RCP, they are a disgusting partisan hack website. I have avoided them all of the 2016 election cycle, and have been going to HuffPost pollster.
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