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Author Topic: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12  (Read 3555 times)
Virginiá
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« on: October 25, 2016, 04:21:28 pm »

Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Ironically the Generic Ballot question in this Democracy Corps poll is R+1. This '9 pt simulation' is misunderstood - it's not a lead.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/gqr-d-democracy-corps-26432

That kind of generic ballot number goes against basically every other poll by a good bit and with a +12pt win in an era of significantly polarized politics and virtually non-existent ticket splitting, I think that generic result is impossible in such a large WH PV win. Even if more people do split tickets, it wouldn't come close to that with such a large Clinton win.

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1051/Dcor_Oct%20National_FQ_10.24.2016_ealert.pdf
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