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November 21, 2019, 01:13:57 pm
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  Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12  (Read 4095 times)
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« on: October 25, 2016, 03:32:29 pm »

Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Uh, Democrats would easily retake the House if they won the PV by 9 points (that remains quite unlikely though.) The House isn't THAT gerrymandered.
I'm not sure about that. Dems are so concentrated in cities that they win practically uncontested in a lot of areas and are losing in so many rural areas or exurbs that they have a hard time keeping even (plus there's gerrymandering)

Yes, but one consequence of gerrymandering is that in a number of states, it has concentrated Democrats in a few districts and spread the Republicans more evenly among a larger number of districts.  This has created more R-leaning districts; but the flip side is that they're not R by very much (R+2, R+3, R+4, etc.)  A large pro-D wave could exceed these levels and potentially flip quite a few of those seats.  But what may save the R majority is a D failure to recruit good candidates in some of these districts.
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