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Author Topic: Florida - Survey USA - HRC +3 (4 way)  (Read 1369 times)
rafta_rafta
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« on: October 25, 2016, 06:49:50 pm »

Clinton 48% (+3)
Trump 45%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2016/10/25/florida_decides_polls_presidential_race.html#pdfs
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2016, 06:50:32 pm »

Underwhelming...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2016, 06:51:36 pm »

More than Obama won Florida by in 2008 *shrugs*
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matthew27
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2016, 06:51:48 pm »

Underwhelming...

Only 3 points ahead of one of the most disgusting individuals to ever run for the office. Sad.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2016, 06:52:16 pm »

Underwhelming...

You're still going to be posting this garbage when Clinton wins by double digits, aren't you?
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2016, 06:52:44 pm »

Underwhelming...

+3 in Florida is a great result. It's a swing state, you aren't going to see 10 point blowouts there
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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2016, 06:53:10 pm »

Underwhelming...

Only 3 points ahead of one of the most disgusting individuals to ever run for the office. Sad.

It's an R+2 sample and she still leads by 3. That's pretty good because FL is D+2 in presidential elections

Party ID is 44R/42D/13I and the early vote stats are practically even with a trend to the Democrats
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heatcharger
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2016, 06:54:02 pm »

I know Survey USA's crosstabs are junk, but these are really funny.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2016, 06:56:22 pm »

Survey USA has had some terrible results since 2014, often with Republican's bias.

This makes me optimistic.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2016, 06:57:07 pm »

I won't unskew, but Trump getting 18% of blacks and only being 14% down with Asians seems rather fishy...

...Then again, SUSA always has bizarre internals and ends up coming out with plausible top lines anyway, so who knows.
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2016, 06:57:14 pm »

More than Obama won Florida by in 2008 *shrugs*

By .10%? That's a tad within the margin of error.
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Dereich
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2016, 06:58:41 pm »

Any candidate on either side in Florida who does not eat babies or is not Katherine Harris is getting a minimum of 44/45%.
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00:09   Wulfric   Trump has seemed to have a lot of compassion for the poor at times

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Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]
ProudModerate2
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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2016, 07:00:14 pm »

Clinton +3 is still a good number for Florida.
The consistent polls at around Clinton +4 are very encouraging.
It's a "solid" Lean D.
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Alcon
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« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2016, 07:01:39 pm »

Geez, relax y'all.  FiveThirtyEight's model puts Clinton at +3.6 in Florida.  This thing has a +/-2.8% MoE, which means everything from Trump +2.0 to Clinton +9.2 is within the MoE.  But we have plenty of evidence that shows Clinton has a lead of several points here, so complaining that this is within the MoE is silly.  The vast majority of competitive state polling is within the MoE.  That's because the MoE is generally about as big as the margin we say means a state is no longer competitive.  It's not a "statistical tie" (shudder) when you have 10 polls that all aggregate to Clinton +3, even if an individual poll with Clinton +3 is solidly within the MoE.

This poll is consistent with previous polls, consistent with where you would expect Florida to be relative to national average demographically, and consistent with a body of evidence that shows Clinton as an overwhelming favorite to win, probably by something like +6 nationally.  The overreaction to individual polls here gets tedious.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 07:07:28 pm by Alcon »Logged

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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2016, 07:02:23 pm »

Any candidate on either side in Florida who does not eat babies or is not Katherine Harris is getting a minimum of 44/45%.

yep.
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Castro
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2016, 07:04:49 pm »

Geez, relax y'all.  FiveThirtyEight's model puts Clinton at +3.6 in Florida.  This thing has a +/-2.8% MoE, which means everything from Trump +2.0 to Clinton +9.2 is within the MoE.  But we have plenty of evidence that shows Clinton has a lead of several points here, so complaining that this is within the MoE is silly.  The vast majority of competitive state polling is within the MoE.  Because the MoE is generally about as big as the margin we say means a state is no longer competitive.  It's not a "statistical tie" (shudder) when you have 10 polls that all aggregate to Clinton +3, even if an individual poll with Clinton +3 is solidly within the MoE.

This poll consistent with previous polls, consistent with where you would expect Florida to be relative to national average demographically, and consistent with a body of evidence that shows Clinton is an overwhelming favorite to win, probably by something like +6 nationally.  The overreaction to individual polls here gets tedious.

There you go again, trying to use math and logic on Atlas.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2016, 07:08:03 pm »

Geez, relax y'all.  FiveThirtyEight's model puts Clinton at +3.6 in Florida.  This thing has a +/-2.8% MoE, which means everything from Trump +2.0 to Clinton +9.2 is within the MoE.  But we have plenty of evidence that shows Clinton has a lead of several points here, so complaining that this is within the MoE is silly.  The vast majority of competitive state polling is within the MoE.  Because the MoE is generally about as big as the margin we say means a state is no longer competitive.  It's not a "statistical tie" (shudder) when you have 10 polls that all aggregate to Clinton +3, even if an individual poll with Clinton +3 is solidly within the MoE.

This poll consistent with previous polls, consistent with where you would expect Florida to be relative to national average demographically, and consistent with a body of evidence that shows Clinton is an overwhelming favorite to win, probably by something like +6 nationally.  The overreaction to individual polls here gets tedious.

There you go again, trying to use math and logic on Atlas.

On the one hand, you can't people for being concerned and absolutely disgusted that a candidate such as Donald Trump could come close to being appealing to 45/100 of the people around them. On the other hand, you'd think that the shock of that now long-holding reality would being fading and would have evolved more into a smoldering gloom about human nature rather than an emotional distress anymore.
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Hammy
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« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2016, 07:14:58 pm »

Wasn't Romney leading by 2-3 points at this point in 2012? I'm a pessimist and even I'm starting to feel slightly more comfortable about calling Florida for Clinton based on results vs polling in previous elections.
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« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2016, 07:16:10 pm »

Great results. Trump has not led in a poll in FL for a long time (same case in NC). We're less than 2 weeks away with people already voting folks. This is good news.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2016, 07:18:38 pm »

Any candidate on either side in Florida who does not eat babies or is not Katherine Harris is getting a minimum of 44/45%.

yep.

I'm concerned.  It does look like Trump has gained the equivalent of 1-2% nationally since the 3rd debate.

It what legitimate polls has Trump gained in?
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2016, 07:19:56 pm »

Any candidate on either side in Florida who does not eat babies or is not Katherine Harris is getting a minimum of 44/45%.

yep.

I'm concerned.  It does look like Trump has gained the equivalent of 1-2% nationally since the 3rd debate.

We're not going to have any idea where this race stands percentage wise until next week. Until pollsters herd together to try and save their reputations, we're just going to have to deal with the huge variances in polling.(just like 2008)
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2016, 07:21:19 pm »

Any candidate on either side in Florida who does not eat babies or is not Katherine Harris is getting a minimum of 44/45%.

yep.

I'm concerned.  It does look like Trump has gained the equivalent of 1-2% nationally since the 3rd debate.

It what legitimate polls has Trump gained in?

I can't find any. HuffPo's Pollster is showing basically an identical margin for all of October so far.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2016, 07:22:43 pm »

Any candidate on either side in Florida who does not eat babies or is not Katherine Harris is getting a minimum of 44/45%.

yep.

I'm concerned.  It does look like Trump has gained the equivalent of 1-2% nationally since the 3rd debate.

It what legitimate polls has Trump gained in?

I can't find any. HuffPo's Pollster is showing basically an identical margin for all of October so far.

RCP is showing the margin tightening, but that's because of IBD, Rasmussen and L.A times which they seem to include multiple times a week(WTF?). 
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2016, 07:23:10 pm »

Any candidate on either side in Florida who does not eat babies or is not Katherine Harris is getting a minimum of 44/45%.

yep.

I'm concerned.  It does look like Trump has gained the equivalent of 1-2% nationally since the 3rd debate.

OMG stop. Given new registrations (new registers aren't usually properly captured in LV screens) and Latino underpolling, Clinton being low-single digits is GOOD.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 07:26:18 pm by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »Logged


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Arch
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« Reply #24 on: October 25, 2016, 07:23:47 pm »

Any candidate on either side in Florida who does not eat babies or is not Katherine Harris is getting a minimum of 44/45%.

yep.

I'm concerned.  It does look like Trump has gained the equivalent of 1-2% nationally since the 3rd debate.

It what legitimate polls has Trump gained in?

I can't find any. HuffPo's Pollster is showing basically an identical margin for all of October so far.

That's the thing. Lots of members here panic when they don't see consistent linear increments. For them to not panic, HRC would have to be polling +15 this week and >+16 the next. If they see +5 2 weeks ago and +5 this week, suddenly Trump is "gaining."
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