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Author Topic: FL - Bloomberg - Trump +2 (4 way)  (Read 2939 times)
jaichind
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« on: October 26, 2016, 04:11:05 am »

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

Trump    45
Clinton   43
Johnston  4
Stein        2

Also has Rubio ahead 51-41
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jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2016, 04:21:21 am »

(Bloomberg) -- USD/MXN surges as much as 0.68% to 18.6472, highest since Oct. 17, as Bloomberg poll shows Trump at 45% and Clinton at 43% in Florida.
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2016, 04:25:57 am »

Oh crap. Clinton has been so steady in Florida these last few weeks. Hopefully this is just MoE stuff.
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matthew27
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2016, 04:30:22 am »

Sad
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2016, 04:33:14 am »

Only 51% of Hispanics go Clinton?  It was 60-40 in 2012.  JUNK POLL!!!
« Last Edit: October 26, 2016, 04:36:08 am by HookiePook »Logged



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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2016, 04:34:17 am »

LOL@38% of Hispanics voting Trump

Also the MoE for Hispanic voters is 6.7 percent!
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2016, 04:41:42 am »

Bloomberg's horrible likely voter screen will be its undoing.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2016, 05:00:11 am »

Bloomberg's horrible likely voter screen will be its undoing.
What's wrong with A+ Selzer?

If it is too restrictive, it might hurt Trump, actually, because his voters are less entusiastic right now Wink

But as I always say, average polls. Race might be tighten a bit, but no way that quick.  Clinton is still in lead.



Only 51% of Hispanics go Clinton?  It was 60-40 in 2012.  JUNK POLL!!!

They have extra big sample of Hispanics, so the MOE should be less than usual among this group

Quote
Including 805 likely voters in main sample and 148 oversample of Hispanic likely voters

Demographics:

Favs/unfavs:
Obama 51/47
Bill       47/49
Hillary  44/53
Trump  46/51
Kaine   39/41
Pence   51/33 Shocked
Rubio    50/44
Michelle 57/37
Biden    54/38
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2016, 05:05:57 am »

Change Bloomberg to Selzer and add head-to-head:

Hillary Clinton 45
Donald Trump 46

Other/would not vote 4
Not sure/don’t remember 1
Don’t want to tell 4 What is it?
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2016, 05:07:04 am »

Oh crap. Clinton has been so steady in Florida these last few weeks. Hopefully this is just MoE stuff.

Calm.
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2016, 05:12:58 am »

In before the concern trolls piss themselves
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dspNY
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2016, 05:43:14 am »

I'll say this, Bloomberg/Selzer is not afraid to churn out outliers
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2016, 05:44:33 am »

After the Iowa caucuses, Selzer in on track to become this year's Mason-Dixon.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2016, 06:34:07 am »

Yeah, this doesn't jive with reports on the ground.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2016, 07:01:53 am »

Mittens was winning the majority of Florida polls the last couple weeks of the 2012 campaign.  Obama wasn't winning any by more than a 1-2 pts.  That was a matchup between two campaigns that had a ground game.  Trump doesn't. 

Florida is pretty safe for Clinton in my advanced and highly accurate model.  But still... Die Freiwall is starke.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2016, 07:02:01 am »

https://twitter.com/lpdonovan/status/791246418501574656
Trump has a higher favorable than Clinton, at odds with most polls
« Last Edit: October 26, 2016, 07:11:57 am by HillOfANight »Logged
Dave Leip
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2016, 07:04:59 am »

New Poll: Florida President by Selzer & Co on 2016-10-24

Summary: D: 45%, R: 46%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2016, 07:05:19 am »

https://twitter.com/lpdonovan/status/791246418501574656
Trump has a higher favorable than Obama 🙄

No.

Favs/unfavs:
Obama 51/47
Hillary  44/53
Trump  46/51
Bill       47/49
Kaine   39/41
Pence   51/33
Rubio    50/44
Michelle 57/37
Biden    54/38
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2016, 07:11:23 am »

This poll has Trump winning Hispanics in the Miami area by 2!
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2016, 07:12:13 am »

Oops I fixed it.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2016, 07:13:59 am »

Another point from Steve Schale:

Quote
Here is a nice stat for you from Florida: Roughly 44% of Dem and NPA Hispanics who voted early yesterday are "unlikely" voters.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2016, 07:16:32 am »

Another point from Steve Schale:

Quote
Here is a nice stat for you from Florida: Roughly 44% of Dem and NPA Hispanics who voted early yesterday are "unlikely" voters.

Bloomberg's likely voter model sucks.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2016, 07:20:48 am »

Another point from Steve Schale:

Quote
Here is a nice stat for you from Florida: Roughly 44% of Dem and NPA Hispanics who voted early yesterday are "unlikely" voters.

Bloomberg's likely voter model sucks.
What this statement has to do with this poll?
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nirvanayoda
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« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2016, 07:21:48 am »

Another point from Steve Schale:

Quote
Here is a nice stat for you from Florida: Roughly 44% of Dem and NPA Hispanics who voted early yesterday are "unlikely" voters.

Bloomberg's likely voter model sucks.

They're (well, Seltzer is) generally one of the most accurate pollsters.  It's tough to argue with past results, even if such results don't guarantee future performance.  Take a look at their Iowa Senate polls in 2014 that everyone else thought were outliers.
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Fmr. Deputy Speaker Spark
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2016, 07:22:12 am »

Muh Trump surge & comeback! Good news for Rubix cube
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2020 President Endorsement: Undecided
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