FL - Bloomberg - Trump +2 (4 way)

[jaichind]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

Trump    45
Clinton   43
Johnston  4
Stein        2

Also has Rubio ahead 51-41

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- USD/MXN surges as much as 0.68% to 18.6472, highest since Oct. 17, as Bloomberg poll shows Trump at 45% and Clinton at 43% in Florida.

[BlueSwan]

Oh crap. Clinton has been so steady in Florida these last few weeks. Hopefully this is just MoE stuff.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Sad

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Only 51% of Hispanics go Clinton?  It was 60-40 in 2012.  JUNK POLL!!!

[Lachi]

LOL@38% of Hispanics voting Trump

Also the MoE for Hispanic voters is 6.7 percent!

[Fusionmunster]

Bloomberg's horrible likely voter screen will be its undoing.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Bloomberg's horrible likely voter screen will be its undoing.

What's wrong with A+ Selzer?

If it is too restrictive, it might hurt Trump, actually, because his voters are less entusiastic right now

But as I always say, average polls. Race might be tighten a bit, but no way that quick.  Clinton is still in lead.

Only 51% of Hispanics go Clinton?  It was 60-40 in 2012.  JUNK POLL!!!

They have extra big sample of Hispanics, so the MOE should be less than usual among this group

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Demographics:

Favs/unfavs:
Obama 51/47
Bill       47/49
Hillary  44/53
Trump  46/51
Kaine   39/41
Pence   51/33
Rubio    50/44
Michelle 57/37
Biden    54/38

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Change Bloomberg to Selzer and add head-to-head:

Hillary Clinton 45
Donald Trump 46

Other/would not vote 4
Not sure/don’t remember 1
Don’t want to tell 4 What is it?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oh crap. Clinton has been so steady in Florida these last few weeks. Hopefully this is just MoE stuff.

Calm.

[Doimper]

In before the concern trolls piss themselves

[dspNY]

I'll say this, Bloomberg/Selzer is not afraid to churn out outliers

[Landslide Lyndon]

After the Iowa caucuses, Selzer in on track to become this year's Mason-Dixon.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, this doesn't jive with reports on the ground.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Mittens was winning the majority of Florida polls the last couple weeks of the 2012 campaign.  Obama wasn't winning any by more than a 1-2 pts.  That was a matchup between two campaigns that had a ground game.  Trump doesn't. 

Florida is pretty safe for Clinton in my advanced and highly accurate model.  But still... Die Freiwall is starke.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/lpdonovan/status/791246418501574656
Trump has a higher favorable than Clinton, at odds with most polls

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Florida President by Selzer & Co on 2016-10-24

Summary: D: 45%, R: 46%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Erich Maria Remarque]

https://twitter.com/lpdonovan/status/791246418501574656
Trump has a higher favorable than Obama 🙄

No.

Favs/unfavs:
Obama 51/47
Hillary  44/53
Trump  46/51
Bill       47/49
Kaine   39/41
Pence   51/33
Rubio    50/44
Michelle 57/37
Biden    54/38

[Gass3268]

This poll has Trump winning Hispanics in the Miami area by 2!

[HillOfANight]

Oops I fixed it.

[Gass3268]

Another point from Steve Schale:

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[Fusionmunster]

Another point from Steve Schale:

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Bloomberg's likely voter model sucks.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Another point from Steve Schale:

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Bloomberg's likely voter model sucks.

What this statement has to do with this poll?

[PollsDontLie]

Another point from Steve Schale:

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Bloomberg's likely voter model sucks.

They're (well, Seltzer is) generally one of the most accurate pollsters.  It's tough to argue with past results, even if such results don't guarantee future performance.  Take a look at their Iowa Senate polls in 2014 that everyone else thought were outliers.

[JerryArkansas]

Another point from Steve Schale:

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Bloomberg's likely voter model sucks.

They're (well, Seltzer is) generally one of the most accurate pollsters.  It's tough to argue with past results, even if such results don't guarantee future performance.  Take a look at their Iowa Senate polls in 2014 that everyone else thought were outliers.

When the poll had Trump getting 44% of Hispanics, the poll is just bad.