SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker thread
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Author Topic: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker thread  (Read 857 times)
dspNY
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« on: October 25, 2016, 07:34:04 PM »
« edited: October 25, 2016, 07:35:43 PM by dspNY »

SurveyMonkey's findings for October 24

Alabama: Trump 51, Clinton 37, Johnson 8
Alaska: Trump 47, Clinton 29, Johnson 17
Arizona: Trump 41, Clinton 40, Johnson 13
Arkansas: Trump 54, Clinton 32, Johnson 8
California: Clinton 53, Trump 31, Johnson 8
Colorado: Clinton 44, Trump 38, Johnson 12
Connecticut: Clinton 51, Trump 36, Johnson 8
Delaware: Clinton 53, Trump 34, Johnson 9
DC: Clinton 88, Trump 5, Johnson 3
Florida: Clinton 47, Trump 44, Johnson 5
Georgia: Trump 46, Clinton 44, Johnson 7
Hawaii: Clinton 50, Trump 34, Johnson 9
Idaho: Trump 50, Clinton 29, Johnson 15* (no McMullin)
Illinois: Clinton 52, Trump 34, Johnson 7
Indiana: Trump 48, Clinton 35, Johnson 13
Iowa: Trump 45, Clinton 40, Johnson 8
Kansas: Trump 48, Clinton 37, Johnson 10
Kentucky: Trump 61, Clinton 29, Johnson 7
Louisiana: Trump 51, Clinton 39, Johnson 6
Maine: Clinton 50, Trump 36, Johnson 6
Maryland: Clinton 61, Trump 27, Johnson 6
Massachusetts: Clinton 61, Trump 29, Johnson 6
Michigan: Clinton 43, Trump 39, Johnson 9
Minnesota: Clinton 48, Trump 34, Johnson 9
Mississippi: Trump 51, Clinton 43, Johnson 2
Missouri: Trump 50, Clinton 36, Johnson 9
Montana: Trump 51, Clinton 35, Johnson 9
Nebraska: Trump 51, Clinton 33, Johnson 10
Nevada: Trump 45, Clinton 44, Johnson 9
New Hampshire: Clinton 49, Trump 37, Johnson 10
New Jersey: Clinton 52, Trump 36, Johnson 4
New Mexico: Clinton 41, Trump 33, Johnson 22
New York: Clinton 58, Trump 30, Johnson 5
North Carolina: Clinton 48, Trump 42, Johnson 7
North Dakota: Trump 50, Clinton 30, Johnson 14
Ohio: Trump 46, Clinton 40, Johnson 8
Oklahoma: Trump 57, Clinton 32, Johnson 8
Oregon: Clinton 50, Trump 32, Johnson 10
Pennsylvania: Clinton 46, Trump 43, Johnson 6
Rhode Island: Clinton 48, Trump 37, Johnson 8
South Carolina: Trump 46, Clinton 43, Johnson 6
South Dakota: Trump 52, Clinton 30, Johnson 13
Tennessee: Trump 48, Clinton 38, Johnson 8
Texas: Trump 47, Clinton 39, Johnson 8
Utah: Trump 33, Clinton 29, MCMULLIN 29, Johnson 7
Vermont: Clinton 53, Trump 24, Johnson 12
Virginia: Clinton 48, Trump 39, Johnson 8
Washington: Clinton 50, Trump 34, Johnson 11
West Virginia: Trump 61, Clinton 28, Johnson 7
Wisconsin: Clinton 43, Trump 42, Johnson 10
Wyoming: Trump 57, Clinton 25, Johnson 12

Overall the results are way too favorable to Johnson which is probably cutting into Clinton's numbers by a couple of points since a slight majority of Johnson voters are going Dem when they're leaving him to pick a side
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2016, 07:37:36 PM »

I hate these things so much!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2016, 07:38:09 PM »

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Sorenroy
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2016, 07:44:52 PM »

On 538 it pushed Clinton above 80% PV in DC and Trump above 80% chance to win in Alaska.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2016, 07:47:40 PM »

No more trackers! No more 50 state polls! No more trackers
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2016, 07:52:08 PM »

Here's a map, for anyone who's curious.

30% - 0-4% lead
50% - 5-9% lead
70% - 10-14% lead
90% - 15% or greater lead

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Kalimantan
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2016, 07:53:12 PM »

Those Johnson numbers are ridiculous.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2016, 07:54:12 PM »

On 538 it pushed Clinton above 80% PV in DC and Trump above 80% chance to win in Alaska.

If this is election is teaching me anything its that I trust the Upshot model so much more than the 538 model. They are selective to what polls they put in their model, rather than 538 which puts in all the trash they can.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2016, 07:54:50 PM »

Send these things to fiery pits of hell. 
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2016, 07:55:02 PM »

SurveyMonkey is a sad, sad pollster with a terrible track record. Discredited fraud Nate Silver of course loves them.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2016, 08:00:35 PM »

SurveyMonkey is a sad, sad pollster with a terrible track record. Discredited fraud Nate Silver of course loves them.

I like what they are doing for their national weekly tracking poll, but they should really just stick to that.
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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2016, 08:18:15 PM »

SurveyMonkey is a sad, sad pollster with a terrible track record. Discredited fraud Nate Silver of course loves them.

At least Survey Monkey's results look remotely plausible.  Google Consumer Survey's 50 state results don't.
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Hammy
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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2016, 11:50:21 PM »

Percentages aside, the map looks fairly realistic, though I expect Nevada to go to Clinton before Florida and think McMullin's chances in Utah are being underestimated here a bit.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2016, 01:07:35 AM »

Huh, these are actually realistic numbers (RIP battleground Texas, he's going to win this state by double digits people)
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Ebsy
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2016, 01:34:15 AM »

Huh, these are actually realistic numbers (RIP battleground Texas, he's going to win this state by double digits people)
That's not what the early vote suggests.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2016, 01:41:55 AM »

Huh, these are actually realistic numbers (RIP battleground Texas, he's going to win this state by double digits people)
That's not what the early vote suggests.
Do you mean the Texas early vote? Are you assuming because turnout is up that it means a hooray for Clinton vote? I've seen the early voting lines in Tarrant County, let's just say you're probably wrong on that one. But I guess we'll see on November 8th.
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Alcon
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2016, 02:45:39 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 02:55:02 AM by Alcon »

Huh, these are actually realistic numbers (RIP battleground Texas, he's going to win this state by double digits people)
That's not what the early vote suggests.
Do you mean the Texas early vote? Are you assuming because turnout is up that it means a hooray for Clinton vote? I've seen the early voting lines in Tarrant County, let's just say you're probably wrong on that one. But I guess we'll see on November 8th.

There are actual early voting numbers (see this thread) that are better to rely on than anecdotes.  Tarrant has the second-smallest increase in early voting over 2012 among populated Texas counties, behind Fort Bend.  Top increases are Travis, El Paso, Williamson, and Cameron.  I'm a big proponent for not overstating the early vote in states where it isn't dominant, but the patterns do look pretty good for the Ds.  I doubt Texas-winning good, but good.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2016, 02:52:25 AM »

Huh, these are actually realistic numbers (RIP battleground Texas, he's going to win this state by double digits people)
That's not what the early vote suggests.
Do you mean the Texas early vote? Are you assuming because turnout is up that it means a hooray for Clinton vote? I've seen the early voting lines in Tarrant County, let's just say you're probably wrong on that one. But I guess we'll see on November 8th.

Why do you keep making declarative statements without realising there's a reason for what's being said?
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2016, 04:58:13 AM »

Huh, these are actually realistic numbers (RIP battleground Texas, he's going to win this state by double digits people)
That's not what the early vote suggests.
Do you mean the Texas early vote? Are you assuming because turnout is up that it means a hooray for Clinton vote? I've seen the early voting lines in Tarrant County, let's just say you're probably wrong on that one. But I guess we'll see on November 8th.

Why do you keep making declarative statements without realising there's a reason for what's being said?
lol
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