Prediction - Democrats will only gain IL and WI. (13 days to go)

[User157088589849]

Republican Seats

1 Illinois - Definite democratic gain
2 Wisconsin - slight lean democratic gain

New Hampshire - Republican hold 50-49
Pennslyvania - Republican hold 51-48
North Carolina - Republican hold 52-46
Indiana - Republican hold 51-47
Arizona - Republican hold 55-44
Missouri - Republican hold 52-46
Florida - Republican hold 52-46
Ohio - Republican hold 57-41
Iowa - Republican hold 56-42

Democrats just don't have decent enough candidates. States are to red or to many incumbents.

[Illiniwek]

Yikes. That would be quite a disappointment. I think the Democrat's floor has to be a net +3.

[Vosem]

Honestly, if this can be limited to D+3 (and even more especially if one of those three gains is Bayh), I'll be jumping for joy. D+2 would be unreal.

[Xing]

Possible, but it's doubtful that the toss-up races will break heavily Republican, given the current environment, and the way that early voting is going. The opposite is more likely.

[windjammer]

The senate is gone: WI-IL-IN-NH-PA are all going to be won by democrats, then I expect democrats to win 1-3 seats among NC-MO-FL

So either 52-53-54

[President Johnson]

Would be disappointing indeed, but I don't think it will come that way. Indiana looks pretty good as well. Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are relatively blue states and the Democratic candidates led most polls. Ohio, Arizona and Iowa are definitely gone; I'm not sure on Missouri and North Carolina. I give Murphy in Florida a shot, but little Marco will likely prevail no matter how Hillary will do.

[Mr. Smith]

Nah. I'd be shocked if Dems gained less than 5 seats in the end; nowadays, almost all competitive Senate races break to the winning party in the end, and combined with depressed Republican turnout with Trump on the ballot, this cycle will likely be a bloodbath for the GOP.

Counterpoint, Hillary creates a 1996 effect which depresses Democratic turnout thanks to Millennial apathy (why vote when trump's done?).

This means of course that while Hillary wins, it's not a majority, and it doesn't put all these in-the-balance-nailbiters into D turf.

[Mr. Smith]

Nah. I'd be shocked if Dems gained less than 5 seats in the end; nowadays, almost all competitive Senate races break to the winning party in the end, and combined with depressed Republican turnout with Trump on the ballot, this cycle will likely be a bloodbath for the GOP.

Counterpoint, Hillary creates a 1996 effect which depresses Democratic turnout thanks to Millennial apathy (why vote when trump's done?).

This means of course that while Hillary wins, it's not a majority, and it doesn't put all these in-the-balance-nailbiters into D turf.

That said, I can't imagine NH and PA not coming home and IN not pulling through.

[Nyvin]

Only gaining two seats would mean the race tightens considerably in the next week and a half.   I don't really see it happening,  I think the floor is D+4.

[ursulahx]

I'm actually pretty sure that Burr will win. No idea how any of the other competitive races will go.

I think so too, because Ross hasn't at any time managed to punch a significant hole through his lead.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Would be wonderful.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm actually pretty sure that Burr will win. No idea how any of the other competitive races will go.

I think so too, because Ross hasn't at any time managed to punch a significant hole through his lead.

Counterpoint: Nothing showed Thom Tillis ahead at any point of 2014. Nothing at all.

[Young Conservative]

This is certainly possible.

[DavidB.]

If this would happen November 8 would truly become a party for me. But especially Pennsylvania and Indiana, and, increasingly, New Hampshire seem gone.

BlondeArtisit's scenario, by the way, could have become even more incredible if Republicans gain Nevada.