Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 23, 2019, 05:28:43 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  NBC/WSJ/Marist: NH-Clinton +9 NV-Tied
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Marist: NH-Clinton +9 NV-Tied  (Read 1606 times)
BoAtlantis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 26, 2016, 04:00:23 pm »

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/791383653301583872

NH
Clinton 45
Trump 36
Johnson 10

NV
Clinton 43
Trump 43
Johnson 10

NH Breakdown

https://www.scribd.com/document/329012099/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-October-2016

NV Breakdown

https://www.scribd.com/document/329012100/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-October-2016
« Last Edit: October 26, 2016, 04:19:32 pm by BoAtlantis »Logged
matthew27
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -1.22

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2016, 04:01:47 pm »

NH looks good but NV is unbelievable based on the early vote.
Logged
TC 25
Full Member
***
Posts: 132
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2016, 04:02:05 pm »

WOW.  Expected NH to be closer, within 3-4 and Nevada about the same.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,593
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2016, 04:02:17 pm »

NH will certainly go Dem. The early vote in Nevada does not indicate anything close to a tie there since it is mirroring 2012 and in some respects exceeding it in Clark County
Logged
Fusionmunster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,492


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2016, 04:02:22 pm »

The Nevada early voting numbers Jon Ralston has been posting lead me to believe Nevada isnt that close. New Hampshire is nice to see.
Logged
NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,656
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2016, 04:02:35 pm »

lol, did they only poll people who haven't voted yet in NV?
Logged
BoAtlantis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2016, 04:03:26 pm »

NH looks good but NV is unbelievable based on the early vote.

I wouldn't worry about NV. Most polls underestimate Democrats there.
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,899


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2016, 04:03:47 pm »

Yeah, that NV poll doesn't line up with the early vote.
Logged
Cruzcrew
Paleocon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 574
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2016, 04:04:08 pm »

So this confirms pollster don't know what they're doing with Nevada for the most part.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2016, 04:04:21 pm »

NH looks good but NV is unbelievable based on the early vote.

I think you've been here long enough to know about NV polling and why you look at field data and not polling. And since ground game is the game and Clinton has an amazing one and Trump basically has none, it's even more pointless.
Logged
Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,758
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2016, 04:05:03 pm »

Why does Nevada polling always suck?
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,924
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2016, 04:05:10 pm »

I think that this would confirm that things are kind of settling rather than Trump closing in.
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,432


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2016, 04:05:43 pm »

BTW, this poll also has Heck lead Cortez Masto by 5 points. LOL, I'm sure Hillary is tied in Nevada.
Logged
john cage bubblegum
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 362


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2016, 04:05:59 pm »

As we've learned Presidential cycle after cycle, it's just tough to poll Nevada, even for pretty good pollsters like Marist.  It's still basically safe for Clinton.  If you want to call it Likely, fine whatever.
Logged
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,597
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2016, 04:06:10 pm »

The Senate numbers are the ones that should be a cause of concern for Democrats. NV is a must-win Senate race for the GOP.
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,899


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2016, 04:06:29 pm »

So this confirms pollster don't know what they're doing with Nevada for the most part.

Pretty much.

Same thing happens every presidential election.
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,135
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -1.24

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2016, 04:07:05 pm »

The Senate numbers are the ones that should be a cause of concern for Democrats. NV is a must-win Senate race for the GOP.

Nobody buys that Heck is up 7 LOL.
Logged
BoAtlantis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2016, 04:07:30 pm »

Why does Nevada polling always suck?

I read that it's because it has a lot of workers that work night shifts in casinos and hotels.

Pollsters have hard time capturing likely voters that skew Dems.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2016, 04:08:55 pm »

Pretty good for Trump trailing nationally by 7.
Logged
rafta_rafta
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 930


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2016, 04:10:28 pm »

Nevada polling is always iffy because of high latino population and irregular work shifts.
Logged
BoAtlantis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2016, 04:11:26 pm »

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics

"Among the 87% of likely voters who haven't voted yet, it's Trump 46%, Clinton 42%

In NV, Clinton leads Trump 60%-35% among those who have *already* voted (13% of likely voters) -- per new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of NV"
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
sjkqw
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,916
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2016, 04:11:53 pm »

Good, good, liberal NBC calling it a tie heading into what will be a bloodbath is just the ammo Trump needs to yell #rigged. He will be leader of the counter forces for years to come no doubt.
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,924
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2016, 04:13:21 pm »

This is a slight improvement from pre-Deplorables Nevada and a YUUUGGGEE improvement for New Hampshire.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,473
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2016, 04:14:07 pm »

So this confirms pollster don't know what they're doing with Nevada for the most part.

Agreed...

We have some some wild swings in Nevada polling numbers over the course of the post-convention era, but the consensus of polls shows NV at more like C +4 which jives better with the EV numbers than this poll.
Logged
ProudModerate2
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,624
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2016, 04:17:28 pm »

NH looks about right.
But NV is not tied. It is Lean to Likely Dem.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines