NBC/WSJ/Marist: NH-Clinton +9 NV-Tied

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

NV is in the bag.  Pollsters are clueless as how to gauge Nevada.

[Yank2133]

As we've learned Presidential cycle after cycle, it's just tough to poll Nevada, even for pretty good pollsters like Marist.  It's still basically safe for Clinton.  If you want to call it Likely, fine whatever.

But is it true?
In 2008/12, it was true. But it might be Obama thing rather then D thing. In 2004 rcp average was pretty good.

Do you guys know what polls showed in Nevada, 2000? I googled, but not found only one poll from Sep 29 2000
http://www.surveyusa.com/ArchivedArticles/NevadaNews.htm

It showed Al Gore +5

Early voting in NV looks like 2012......so no it is not just an Obama thing.

[john cage bubblegum]

As we've learned Presidential cycle after cycle, it's just tough to poll Nevada, even for pretty good pollsters like Marist.  It's still basically safe for Clinton.  If you want to call it Likely, fine whatever.

But is it true?
In 2008/12, it was true. But it might be Obama thing rather then D thing. In 2004 rcp average was pretty good.

Do you guys know what polls showed in Nevada, 2000? I googled, but not found only one poll from Sep 29 2000
http://www.surveyusa.com/ArchivedArticles/NevadaNews.htm

It showed Al Gore +5

The NV polling did well in '04, but the Nevada electorate has changed significantly in 12 years.  Huge population growth, particularly among Latinos.

[Oakvale]

Nevada = titanium safe D. Harry Reid's beautiful machine thugs have dropped enough Republicans off the roof of Caesar's Palace to make this a blowout.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The NV polling did well in '04, but the Nevada electorate has changed significantly in 12 years.  Huge population growth, particularly among Latinos.

You are likely right. Can't get used to it. Swedish voters are so homogen

[psychprofessor]

Every Dem operative is either optimistic or giddy about NV...don't think Clinton is worried too much about this state. Trump has never led in any aggregate of NH over the campaign..that's not going to change in the next 13 days. Both are solid D.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Nevada = titanium safe D. Harry Reid's beautiful machine thugs have dropped enough Republicans off the roof of Caesar's Palace to make this a blowout.

I have it on good word from Retromike that his band of gay Hispanic thugs has had a tremendous new voter drive.

NV is a lock.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Every Dem operative is either optimistic or giddy about NV...don't think Clinton is worried too much about this state. Trump has never led in any aggregate of NH over the campaign..that's not going to change in the next 13 days. Both are solid D.

Remember that Every Romney operative believed he was going to win in a landslide nationally, at least publicly. Every McCain operative believed McCain was going to eke it out nationally, at least publicly.

No Operative is going to come out and say "WAAH!! WE ARE GOING TO LOSE!!!!".

That being said, I will wait for someone else to find a Tie in NV and Heck ~+7 before changing any of my ratings based on those numbers.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Every Dem operative is either optimistic or giddy about NV...don't think Clinton is worried too much about this state. Trump has never led in any aggregate of NH over the campaign..that's not going to change in the next 13 days. Both are solid D.

Remember that Every Romney operative believed he was going to win in a landslide nationally, at least publicly. Every McCain operative believed McCain was going to eke it out nationally, at least publicly.

No Operative is going to come out and say "WAAH!! WE ARE GOING TO LOSE!!!!".

Except Dem field operators vs Romneys... false equivalence.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Every Dem operative is either optimistic or giddy about NV...don't think Clinton is worried too much about this state. Trump has never led in any aggregate of NH over the campaign..that's not going to change in the next 13 days. Both are solid D.

Remember that Every Romney operative believed he was going to win in a landslide nationally, at least publicly. Every McCain operative believed McCain was going to eke it out nationally, at least publicly.

No Operative is going to come out and say "WAAH!! WE ARE GOING TO LOSE!!!!".

Except Dem field operators vs Romneys... false equivalence.

So you're saying that Dem field operators in 2004 were like "WAAH!! WE ARE GOING TO LOSE!!!!"

[Gass3268]

Every Dem operative is either optimistic or giddy about NV...don't think Clinton is worried too much about this state. Trump has never led in any aggregate of NH over the campaign..that's not going to change in the next 13 days. Both are solid D.

Remember that Every Romney operative believed he was going to win in a landslide nationally, at least publicly. Every McCain operative believed McCain was going to eke it out nationally, at least publicly.

No Operative is going to come out and say "WAAH!! WE ARE GOING TO LOSE!!!!".

That being said, I will wait for someone else to find a Tie in NV and Heck ~+7 before changing any of my ratings based on those numbers.

Jon Ralston has essentially said the Presidential race is over in Nevada.

[NOVA Green]

Every Dem operative is either optimistic or giddy about NV...don't think Clinton is worried too much about this state. Trump has never led in any aggregate of NH over the campaign..that's not going to change in the next 13 days. Both are solid D.

Remember that Every Romney operative believed he was going to win in a landslide nationally, at least publicly. Every McCain operative believed McCain was going to eke it out nationally, at least publicly.

No Operative is going to come out and say "WAAH!! WE ARE GOING TO LOSE!!!!".

That being said, I will wait for someone else to find a Tie in NV and Heck ~+7 before changing any of my ratings based on those numbers.

Jon Ralston has essentially said the Presidential race is over in Nevada.

Yeah--- saw him earlier on MSNBC and he basically called out Chuck Todd/NBC on their NV poll, and said he thinks NV is looking more like +6-7 C at this point in the race.

[Ebsy]

Embarassing result for Marist in Nevada.

[Eraserhead]

Jill Stein is at 4% in New Hampshire.

[HillOfANight]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1027-nevada-clinton-and-trump-tied-new-hampshire-clinton-opens-up-lead/
Crosstabs up.

Registered voters

Nevada
Clinton 45
Trump 42

Nevada White
Clinton 38
Trump 50

Nevada Latino
Clinton 56
Trump 38

[The Other Castro]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1027-nevada-clinton-and-trump-tied-new-hampshire-clinton-opens-up-lead/
Crosstabs up.

Registered voters

Nevada
Clinton 45
Trump 42

Nevada White
Clinton 38
Trump 50

Nevada Latino
Clinton 56
Trump 38

Hahahahhahahahaahhaha

[Gass3268]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1027-nevada-clinton-and-trump-tied-new-hampshire-clinton-opens-up-lead/
Crosstabs up.

Registered voters

Nevada
Clinton 45
Trump 42

Nevada White
Clinton 38
Trump 50

Nevada Latino
Clinton 56
Trump 38

Hahahahhahahahaahhaha

Yeah, that's not happening.