As we've learned Presidential cycle after cycle, it's just tough to poll Nevada, even for pretty good pollsters like Marist. It's still basically safe for Clinton. If you want to call it Likely, fine whatever.
But is it true?
In 2008/12, it was true. But it might be Obama thing rather then D thing. In 2004 rcp average was pretty good.
Do you guys know what polls showed in Nevada, 2000? I googled, but not found only one poll from Sep 29 2000 
http://www.surveyusa.com/ArchivedArticles/NevadaNews.htm
It showed Al Gore +5
The NV polling did well in '04, but the Nevada electorate has changed significantly in 12 years. Huge population growth, particularly among Latinos.
