Poll Results of Early Voters thread

[Ozymandias]

NEVADA

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson NV poll, where 237 of 550 LV (43%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_6087a7fc8d43488e91a0600e8ee04883.xlsx?dn=ECP_NV_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 49%
Trump 32%
Johnson 2.5%

Cortez-Mastro 49%
Heck 42%
Other 1.3%

Party ID
Democrat 47%
Republican 33%
Independent 20%

[Speed of Sound]

gonna go ahead and say that if Emerson is really showing Clinton running behind Murphy, that Emerson is trash.

Well, we didn't need this set of polls to know that.

[Ozymandias]

OHIO

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson OH poll, where 223 of 800 LV (28%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_ad398c37ba9347109dc33acfd90bbd48.xlsx?dn=ECP_OH_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 59%
Trump 35%
Johnson 0%
Stein 0%

Strickland 49%
Portman 39%
Other 2.7%

Party ID
Democrat 48%
Republican 25%
Independent 27%

[Ozymandias]

Perhaps the most interesting result from looking at early voters in these four Emerson polls is how hardly any of them have voted for either Johnson or Stein.

[izixs]

Perhaps the most interesting result from looking at early voters in these four Emerson polls is how hardly any of them have voted for either Johnson or Stein.

Perhaps its an issue of motivation. If you're candidate is unlikely to get beyond a distant 3rd even before the polls started moving away from them, there's not a lot of motivation to get to the polls. What more, the media has stopped promoting these two as much as its become more well known how terrible they both are as potential presidents, and thus propping them up looks more like what it sounds like, propping them up. And finally, and most likely, there's the issue of small sample sizes. With margins of error this big, you can miss out on the voters who actually did vote for these two.

[Enduro]

Perhaps the most interesting result from looking at early voters in these four Emerson polls is how hardly any of them have voted for either Johnson or Stein.

Perhaps its an issue of motivation. If you're candidate is unlikely to get beyond a distant 3rd even before the polls started moving away from them, there's not a lot of motivation to get to the polls. What more, the media has stopped promoting these two as much as its become more well known how terrible they both are as potential presidents, and thus propping them up looks more like what it sounds like, propping them up. And finally, and most likely, there's the issue of small sample sizes. With margins of error this big, you can miss out on the voters who actually did vote for these two.

You probably got it right, I think those numbers will rise when Election Day results come in.

[Ozymandias]

NORTH CAROLINA

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/792545190976323584

Here's the latest NY Times Upshot modeling of NC:

ALREADY VOTED (32.4% of vote): Clinton - 54.6%, Trump - 41.6%

STILL TO VOTE (67.6% of vote): Clinton - 46.7%, Trump - 43.7%

FINAL VOTE: Clinton - 49.3%, Trump - 43.0%

[Ozymandias]

FLORIDA and NORTH CAROLINA

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246

"Clinton Leads Big Among Early Voters in Both States

The polls - conducted Oct. 25-26 - come as voters are already voting in both states...

Among the 36 percent [356/990] of likely voters in Florida who say they've already voted, Clinton is ahead, 54 percent to 37 percent.

Among those who haven't voted in the Sunshine State, Trump is up, 51 percent to 42 percent.

And Clinton leads by a 61 percent-to-33 percent margin among the 29 percent [295/1018] of North Carolinians who say they've already voted."

[Ozymandias]

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/30/key-battlegrounds-tight-clinton-maintains-eight-po/

10/26-10/29

ARIZONA

"In Arizona, 40% have already voted. Among those who have, the race is tied 46% to 46%. By election day in 2012, two-thirds of Arizonans had already voted."

NORTH CAROLINA

"There, the Battleground Tracker estimates 29% have already voted, and these voters tilt towards Clinton by 51% to 45%. It also seems likely that will grow: while 53% of Trump supporters in North Carolina plan to vote in-person on November 8th, 65% of Clinton voters either have already cast their ballots or plan to do so before November 8th."

COLORADO

"In Colorado... according to the Battleground Tracker, 28% have already sent their completed ballots back. Of this group, 55% report voting for Clinton, with only 37% for Trump. Here, Johnson receives only 4% support and Stein 1%."

[Ozymandias]

NORTH CAROLINA

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  4m4 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
We now have 492 poll respondents who have voted early in NC. Clinton leads 53 to 38 percent, Johnson at 4.

According to an early tweet, they've polled 1574 NC voters, so this works out to 31.2% that have voted early.

[Ozymandias]

GEORGIA

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=874ea794-a227-44a0-a81b-bdc09dd92fac&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Of the 30% (~178) of 593 LV who said they voted early:

Trump - 51
Clinton - 45
Johnson - 2

Poll conducted 10/28

SENATE:

Isakson (R) - 50
Barksdale (D) - 44
Buckley (L) - 2


Interestingly, for President there's no significant difference between early vote and overall poll results (Trump +7), but that's not the case for the Senate race, which is Isakson +12

[Ozymandias]

FLORIDA

https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters

Among 311 of 718 (43.3%) of voters known to have voted early,

Clinton - 55
Trump - 37
Johnson - 3
Stein - 3
Other - 2

Note this is very close to 54-37 margin NBC/Marist found for early voters last week, and also consistent with 57-42 spread that Emerson found.

SENATE early voters: Rubio - 48, Murphy - 47, Other - 4

[Ozymandias]

USA

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-rated-honest-contest-stays-dead-heat-poll/story?id=43225421

Of 23 percent who say they’ve already voted...

"Clinton leads among those who say they’ve already voted, 54-41 percent. "

KANSAS

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0e1d48a5-2698-448f-8f7a-fa2c92996543

17% of 693 RV = 118 voters say they've already voted.

"Specifically, Clinton leads Trump 50% to 42% among early voters."

Senate: Moran (R) - 48, Wiesner (D) - 44

NORTH CAROLINA

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/upshot/early-vote-in-north-carolina-seems-to-confirm-a-clinton-lead.html

"Our sample of verified North Carolina early voters supported Clinton by a 51-39 percent margin in NC." (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793823086676103169)

"In our poll of early voters, Mrs. Clinton has a 49-39 lead among unaffiliated voters who have cast ballots. Mr. Trump has only a 10-point lead, 47 percent to 37 percent, among unaffiliated white voters."

[Dr. Arch]

↑ The good news keeps rolling in. Thanks Ozy.

[Ozymandias]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/index.html

"And voters who say they have already cast ballots in Arizona and Nevada are about evenly split, with a narrow advantage for Clinton, while she holds a wide margin among those who say they have already voted in Florida. "

Will update if/when I find a link to more detailed poll data.

[Speed of Sound]

I feel a lot better about the CNN results if that's what they found in early voters in NV. Those NV's numbers are wrong wrong wrong.

[Ozymandias]

I feel a lot better about the CNN results if that's what they found in early voters. Those numbers are wrong wrong wrong.

The Arizona early voting results are actually consistent with what YouGov found (see upthread), but the Nevada results are much different from both Emerson and NBC/Marist, each of which showed Clinton with big early leads in NV.

[Speed of Sound]

I feel a lot better about the CNN results if that's what they found in early voters. Those numbers are wrong wrong wrong.

The Arizona early voting results are actually consistent with what YouGov found (see upthread), but the Nevada results are much different from both Emerson and NBC/Marist, each of which showed Clinton with big early leads in NV.

Ah, thanks for the correction! My mistake. Yeah the big ugly outlier in that set is clearly NV. I think they have AZ a tiny bit too far right, but not much.

[Ozymandias]

Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2399

FLORIDA: Of the 42% (263/626) of Early Voters, Clinton is ahead 48-42 percent (5.6% MOE).

NORTH CAROLINA: Of the 44% (265/602) of Early Voters, Clinton is ahead 58-36 percent (6.0% MOE).

OHIO: Of the 27% (159/589) of Early Voters, Clinton is ahead 58-33 percent (7.5% MOE).

[Ozymandias]

WISCONSIN

http://law.marquette.edu/poll/

Of the 16% (201/1255) of respondents who said they already voted:

Clinton - 64
Trump - 25
Johnson - 1
Stein - 0
Other - 3

SENATE:

Feingold - 58
Johnson - 29
Other - 5

[HisGrace]

gonna go ahead and say that if Emerson is really showing Clinton running behind Murphy, that Emerson is trash.

I find that impossible to believe too, especially since the thing that's made Murphy come back in the polls has been him bashing Rubio for endorsing Trump.

Still lots of good news in the thread.

[Devout Centrist]

This could be a disaster if Trump has no ground game. He could end up ahead in the polls in several states and yet lose them because of no GOTV operation.

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  10m10 minutes ago Washington, DC
Upshot/Siena polling of North Carolina early voters who *didn't* vote in 2012 (n=133): Clinton 57, Trump 34

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  52s52 seconds ago Washington, DC
NC early voters who didn't vote in 2012:
White: C 43, T 45 (v. 35-55 among e.v. who vtd in 12)
Nonwhite: C 97, T 2 (v. 90-6 among vt in 12)

[Ozymandias]

COLORADO

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-shows/

Of the 54.5% (300/550) of the sample that voted early:

Clinton - 44
Trump - 37
Johnson - 4
Stein - 3

SENATE

Bennet - 53
Glenn - 36
Other - 4

[Dr. Arch]

COLORADO

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-shows/

Of the 54.5% (300/550) of the sample that voted early:

Clinton - 44
Trump - 37
Johnson - 4
Stein - 3

SENATE

Bennet - 53
Glenn - 36
Other - 4

Yea, CO is now Trump+105, didn't you hear?

In all seriousness though, CO is looking better this year than in 2012, and I see a bunch of posters in the forum saying things are grim for HRC, lol.