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+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter, TJ in Wisco)
| | |-+  Poll Results of Early Voters thread
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Author Topic: Poll Results of Early Voters thread  (Read 4892 times)
Ozymandias
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« Reply #75 on: November 05, 2016, 07:18:23 pm »
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IOWA

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/?hootPostID=244ad51ae6af519614281eb8c6904b90

Of the 34% (272/800) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 53
Trump - 31

(Derived from "At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump" and "Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who havenít voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32").
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #76 on: November 06, 2016, 01:43:17 am »
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USA

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/qualifications-temperament-aid-clinton-2016-campaigns-closing-days/story?id=43327300

"The results in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, rest to some extent on the one-third of likely voters who say they've already voted. They go Clinton by 51-43 percent, leaving it closer among the two-thirds yet to vote when these interviews were completed."
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« Reply #77 on: November 06, 2016, 01:49:20 am »
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MICHIGAN

Of the 32% (306/957) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 57
Trump - 36
Johnson - 3
Stein - 2

I thought the MI early vote skewed older and whiter? Those seem like great numbers for Clinton.
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Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
until they can no longer be recognized.

Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
Just some parts, or everything?
On whom can we still rely? Are we survivors, cast
away by the current? Will we be left behind,
no longer understanding anyone and being understood by no one?
Must we rely on luck?

This is what you ask. Expect
no answer but your own.


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Ozymandias
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« Reply #78 on: November 06, 2016, 09:46:39 am »
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OHIO

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Of the 36% (409/1136) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage."
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alomas
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« Reply #79 on: November 06, 2016, 09:54:39 am »
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MICHIGAN

Of the 32% (306/957) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 57
Trump - 36
Johnson - 3
Stein - 2

I thought the MI early vote skewed older and whiter? Those seem like great numbers for Clinton.
Then why be so worried about this state?
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #80 on: November 06, 2016, 09:58:16 am »
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USA

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/final-nbc-wsj-poll-clinton-holds-four-point-national-lead-n678611

"Clinton leads among those who are early voters, 53 percent to 39 percent, while Trump is up among those who will wait to vote on Election Day, 48 percent to 41 percent."

I could only get those numbers to work out for the head-to-head case, provided that 55+% (!) of the sample (at least 660/1200) had voted early.



« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 10:01:24 am by Ozymandias »Logged
Castro
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« Reply #81 on: November 06, 2016, 10:06:09 am »
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USA

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/final-nbc-wsj-poll-clinton-holds-four-point-national-lead-n678611

"Clinton leads among those who are early voters, 53 percent to 39 percent, while Trump is up among those who will wait to vote on Election Day, 48 percent to 41 percent."

I could only get those numbers to work out for the head-to-head case, provided that 55+% (!) of the sample (at least 660/1200) had voted early.


Hmm that sounds way too high.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #82 on: November 06, 2016, 10:09:42 am »
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As of morning of 11/6, total current received advance vote (for entire country from http://www.electproject.org/early_2016) is equal to 32% of 2012 total vote.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #83 on: November 06, 2016, 10:38:19 am »
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When you look at these numbers, its striking how far behind the Senate candidates Trump is running, with the exception of Colorado where he is doing better than Glenn.

In the polls written on this thread we have (all numbers difference in Rep-Dem margin):

CO +5 on Glenn
CO +6 on Glenn
IA -26 on Grassley
WI -10 on Johnson
KS -12 on Moran
FL -19 on Rubio
GA level with Isakson
OH -14 on Portman
NV -10 on Heck
NC -7 on Burr
FL+6 on Rubio (Emerson)

How can he win when he is running 10 points or worse on Senate candidates across the country, many of those who are not favoured to win?




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Ozymandias
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« Reply #84 on: November 06, 2016, 10:57:05 am »
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https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/

FLORIDA

Of the 63% (748/1188) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 51
Trump - 41

OHIO

Of the 19% (226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 63
Trump - 33
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #85 on: November 06, 2016, 08:52:28 pm »
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UTAH

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitMnpma3JKTjh4aGs/view

Of the 55% (744/1352) of respondents who said they voted early:

Trump - 37
Clinton - 37
McMullin 22
Johnson - 4
Other - 1
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #86 on: November 06, 2016, 09:00:59 pm »
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UTAH

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitMnpma3JKTjh4aGs/view

Of the 55% (744/1352) of respondents who said they voted early:

Trump - 37
Clinton - 37
McMullin 22
Johnson - 4
Other - 1


Aww no McMullin win? :/
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And it keeps on falling down!
hopper
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« Reply #87 on: November 06, 2016, 09:06:49 pm »
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IOWA

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/?hootPostID=244ad51ae6af519614281eb8c6904b90

Of the 34% (272/800) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 53
Trump - 31

(Derived from "At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump" and "Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who havenít voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32").
So Trump would lose Iowa by 1% point or less?
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #88 on: November 06, 2016, 09:08:19 pm »
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IOWA

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/?hootPostID=244ad51ae6af519614281eb8c6904b90

Of the 34% (272/800) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 53
Trump - 31

(Derived from "At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump" and "Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who havenít voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32").
So Trump would lose Iowa by 1% point or less?

No, there were twice as many non-early-voters in this poll, so overall Trump was up +7
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #89 on: November 06, 2016, 10:45:18 pm »
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OHIO

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Of the 36% (409/1136) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage."

Per TargetSmart, Clinton up 7, 48-41 in early voting, Clinton up 23 with women (55-32)
https://twitter.com/_targetsmart/status/795471106471772161
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #90 on: November 06, 2016, 10:56:30 pm »
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OHIO

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Of the 36% (409/1136) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage."

Per TargetSmart, Clinton up 7, 48-41 in early voting, Clinton up 23 with women (55-32)
https://twitter.com/_targetsmart/status/795471106471772161

This was for the 19% of their sample that voted early...

Benjamin Lazarus ‏@ben_d_lazarus  8m8 minutes ago
(4/5) But, we provided snapshot in time, sample only 19% EV; in 2012 33% of Ohio vote was cast early

...which matches current Ohio EV exactly.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #91 on: November 06, 2016, 11:24:18 pm »
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OHIO

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Of the 36% (409/1136) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage."


Per TargetSmart, Clinton up 7, 48-41 in early voting, Clinton up 23 with women (55-32)
https://twitter.com/_targetsmart/status/795471106471772161

This was for the 19% of their sample that voted early...

Benjamin Lazarus ‏@ben_d_lazarus  8m8 minutes ago
(4/5) But, we provided snapshot in time, sample only 19% EV; in 2012 33% of Ohio vote was cast early

...which matches current Ohio EV exactly.

And as it turns out that's no coincidence, since they weighted by the early vote (don't think anyone else does that):

"Of the 1194 total interviews, 497 were conducted among respondents who voted early in the 2016 general election, either absentee or in-person, according to data from the Ohio Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file. These respondents were weighted down to an effective sample size of 160 so that the early vote sub-sample represents 17 percent of the overall sample, which is the percent of registered voters, as of the morning of November 4, 2016, who have voted early according to data from the Ohio Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file. The early vote data were weighted to reflect population parameters on TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, race, and media market of the overall population of early voters in Ohio who had participated as of the morning of November 4, 2016"
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #92 on: November 07, 2016, 11:41:00 am »
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https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2401

FLORIDA

Of the 65% (575/884) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 47
Trump - 43
Johnson - 2
Stein - 0
Other - 1

Rubio - 48
Murphy - 46
Other - 2

NORTH CAROLINA

Of the 67% (583/884) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 52
Trump - 40
Johnson - 2
Other - 2

Ross - 51
Burr - 43
Other - 2

Cooper - 56
McCrory - 40
Other - 1


 
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #93 on: November 07, 2016, 12:23:56 pm »
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NORTH CAROLINA

http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/5aa2333d-0f5b-49b3-92d6-dfcc5a1c58f6.pdf

Of the 63% (504/800) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 49
Trump - 40

Ross - 52
Burr - 42

Cooper - 52
McCrory - 43
« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 01:55:26 pm by Ozymandias »Logged
Ozymandias
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« Reply #94 on: November 07, 2016, 12:48:36 pm »
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FLORIDA

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/OS-FL-General-11.7.16.pdf

Of the 71% (607/853) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton still leads the early vote by roughly 8%"

« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 01:45:08 pm by Ozymandias »Logged
Ozymandias
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« Reply #95 on: November 07, 2016, 01:46:13 pm »
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USA

http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016.11.04-US-Horserace.pdf

Of the 21% (242/1151) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 57
Trump - 39
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« Reply #96 on: November 07, 2016, 03:51:20 pm »
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USA

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/qualifications-temperament-aid-clinton-2016-campaigns-closing-days/story?id=43327300

"The results in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, rest to some extent on the one-third of likely voters who say they've already voted. They go Clinton by 51-43 percent, leaving it closer among the two-thirds yet to vote when these interviews were completed."

John Harwood hat retweetet
 Chris Cillizza ‏@TheFix 
Clinton ahead among early voters 55-40 in latest WaPo-ABC tracking poll
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Castro
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« Reply #97 on: November 07, 2016, 03:59:33 pm »
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #98 on: November 07, 2016, 04:09:13 pm »
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USA

This 49-42 lead applies to the 37% (1360/3677) of respondents who said they already voted:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/95dcxi5lf1/econToplines_lv.pdf


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Ozymandias
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« Reply #99 on: November 07, 2016, 08:36:44 pm »
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FLORIDA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Opinion Savvy: 71% (607 EV)-- Clinton +8

Quinnipiac: 65% (575 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

YouGov: 63% (748 EV)-- Clinton +10 (51-41)

Opinion Savvy: 55% (333 EV)-- Clinton +9 (53-44)

Emerson: 51% (257 EV)-- Clinton +15 (57-42)

TargetSmart: 43% (311 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37)

Quinnipiac: 42% (263 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

NBC: 36% (356 EV)-- Clinton +17 (54-37)

FAU: 26% (226 EV)-- Clinton +12 (54-41)

Based on the most recent polling, and how well the Dems did in early voting this past weekend, I think it's safe to say that Clinton is heading into election day with almost a 10-point lead among the ~76% of the population that has now voted.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 08:46:26 pm by Ozymandias »Logged
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