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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, VirginiŠ)
  Why is the race tightening again?
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Author Topic: Why is the race tightening again?  (Read 2603 times)
ursulahx
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« Reply #50 on: October 27, 2016, 09:56:34 am »

The race isn't "tightening". At most, all that's happening is that Clinton's massive lead is becoming slightly less unrealistic in the averages. It's a combination of two things: a 'bounce' from Trump's meltdowns starting to fade, and Republican enthusiasm for Trump growing a little now that we're into the feeding frenzy of the last fortnight, and it's become a "get behind my team because SCOTUS" situation.
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BL53931
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« Reply #51 on: October 27, 2016, 09:57:37 am »

At the risk of getting pounded I have to say I think a lot of people on here are behaving like they say the Right does; living in their own echo chamber.  Every day I look at the tracking polls and my heart sinks. Yeah Hillary is ahead by double digits in the POPULAR vote. Go to the map on 'Electoral Vote' or similar sites and do the math. She has 323 on there today. That total  includes states where her lead is razor thin like FL, NC etc. She is just not seemingly able to put this thing away in FL. I mean for God's sake, what is the problem? A state with tons of Hispanic and black voters? She cannot seem to grab any lead in OH. Move the numbers just a bit and the big Oaf gets to 270.

All the celebration I read on here is premature, especially all the assumption this will be a rout. It won't. . If anyone on here lives in a swing state and supports Hillary, get out and go to work.  Like your life and future depends on it. It does.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #52 on: October 27, 2016, 10:26:36 am »

At the risk of getting pounded I have to say I think a lot of people on here are behaving like they say the Right does; living in their own echo chamber.  Every day I look at the tracking polls and my heart sinks. Yeah Hillary is ahead by double digits in the POPULAR vote. Go to the map on 'Electoral Vote' or similar sites and do the math. She has 323 on there today. That total  includes states where her lead is razor thin like FL, NC etc. She is just not seemingly able to put this thing away in FL. I mean for God's sake, what is the problem? A state with tons of Hispanic and black voters? She cannot seem to grab any lead in OH. Move the numbers just a bit and the big Oaf gets to 270.

All the celebration I read on here is premature, especially all the assumption this will be a rout. It won't. . If anyone on here lives in a swing state and supports Hillary, get out and go to work.  Like your life and future depends on it. It does.
We need to be constantly afraid, even if Hillary runs up the score, our fear and anxiety will still be founded.
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TC 25
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« Reply #53 on: October 27, 2016, 10:37:08 am »

It's closer and will probably get even closer yet in the next 12 days.

ObamaCare, the Supreme Court, the drip drip drip of Wikileaks and the Clinton corruption, Republicans coming home and it's a tight race.

Clinton has her firewall and it's still doubtful that Trump breaks through and wins, but he has an outside shot.

All the talk of a 12-14 point win and 400+EVs is folly.
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Beck 2020
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« Reply #54 on: October 27, 2016, 10:39:28 am »

twelve days before the election '08 & '12

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Oct23.html
337-171-30(ties)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct25.html
294-244

final

2008 365-173
2012 332-206

I don't think it's over yet, because Trump could still pull a rabbit out of a hat.
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BL53931
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« Reply #55 on: October 27, 2016, 10:41:46 am »

I do believe she will win. It is just a bit jarring to see some of the posts on here from folks planning their celebration for election night when it is in part still flying around.

Hillary will run up huge margins in CA NY and other blue states. That doesn't help her one bit in FL or OH. Again, do the math.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #56 on: October 27, 2016, 10:47:30 am »

I do believe she will win. It is just a bit jarring to see some of the posts on here from folks planning their celebration for election night when it is in part still flying around.

Hillary will run up huge margins in CA NY and other blue states. That doesn't help her one bit in FL or OH. Again, do the math.

maths
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Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #57 on: October 27, 2016, 10:48:43 am »

Because while "Trump is awful" was good for ratings for a while, "Clinton Smashes Trump" isn't a narrative that will draw eyeballs for the next two weeks. But "Insane Maniac May Still Win!" is great for ratings, especially if nothing else is happening. The fundamentals aren't changing and Clinton is still on track to win.

The narrative might change if there's a juicy scandal, but otherwise look for the easily hyped "Stupid Psychopath May Be Next President!" story to keep rolling.



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ursulahx
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« Reply #58 on: October 27, 2016, 10:58:17 am »

I do believe she will win. It is just a bit jarring to see some of the posts on here from folks planning their celebration for election night when it is in part still flying around.

Hillary will run up huge margins in CA NY and other blue states. That doesn't help her one bit in FL or OH. Again, do the math.

maths

Not in the US, mate.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #59 on: October 27, 2016, 04:01:26 pm »

It's not tightening really, you have to cherrypick polls to reach that conclusion. He does seem to have moved back some of the Republicans to his side after hitting new lows of in-party favorability after pussygate, but Clinton has also slightly increased her numbers at the same time. The two effects have mostly canceled each other out and the small blips have been little more than statistical noise.
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I'm with Mayor Pete
Beef
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« Reply #60 on: October 27, 2016, 04:10:50 pm »

I do believe she will win. It is just a bit jarring to see some of the posts on here from folks planning their celebration for election night when it is in part still flying around.

Hillary will run up huge margins in CA NY and other blue states. That doesn't help her one bit in FL or OH. Again, do the math.

maths

Not in the US, mate.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.

USA! USA! USA! USA!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #61 on: October 27, 2016, 04:35:01 pm »

I do believe she will win. It is just a bit jarring to see some of the posts on here from folks planning their celebration for election night when it is in part still flying around.

Hillary will run up huge margins in CA NY and other blue states. That doesn't help her one bit in FL or OH. Again, do the math.

maths

Not in the US, mate.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.

USA! USA! USA! USA!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #62 on: October 27, 2016, 06:26:36 pm »

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-polls-disagree-and-thats-ok

Quote
But what do the polls say? The race probably is tightening ó but perhaps not as much as the hype on the cable networks would imply. In our polls-only forecast, Trump has narrowed Clintonís lead in the popular vote to roughly 6 percentage points from 7 points a week ago, and his chances of winning have ticked up to 17 percent from 13 percent. In our polls-plus forecast, Trumpís chances are up to 19 percent from 16 percent. Because of the high level of uncertainty in the race, we canít say the door is closed on a narrow Trump victory. And weíre certainly a week or two removed from the period when every poll brought good news for Clinton: Plenty of polls now show negative trend lines for her (in addition to others that show a positive trend). But the race hasnít fundamentally changed all that much, and Clinton remains in a strong position.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #63 on: October 27, 2016, 06:35:44 pm »

Saw the ABC national news tonight. Proclaimed the "increasing tightness" of the race. Then turned around and cited the Qunnipiac state polls (ALL of which showed positive trend for clinton) as proof. lol
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Hammy
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« Reply #64 on: October 27, 2016, 07:08:33 pm »

Saw the ABC national news tonight. Proclaimed the "increasing tightness" of the race. Then turned around and cited the Qunnipiac state polls (ALL of which showed positive trend for clinton) as proof. lol

Most cable news viewers have a short attention span with the polls (and everything really) so they'll eat it up, and the media can keep getting ratings off of this narrative.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #65 on: October 28, 2016, 04:28:38 am »

In the end, I early voted for Trump.  I was not going to vote for Hillary, but I had, at one point, made up my mind to vote for Johnson.  My heart wasn't in that, however; I'm not a Libertarian and Johnson came off as a Pot Burnout.  But it wasn't without a lot of thought.  Trump's persona isn't what I'm like and isn't what I want my 11 year old son to become like.
Maybe your son will forgive you in time.

If he survives the nuclear holocaust that you helped bring about.
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Shadows
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« Reply #66 on: October 28, 2016, 05:35:59 am »

The people just want to know Trump is sane (& he isn't) & desperately want reasons to vote Clinton.

People have to take into account that she is the most unelectable corrupt dishonest & fraudulent Dem Pres candidate in recent history. As long as Trump is sane & doesn't have major screwups he will make it close!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #67 on: October 28, 2016, 05:44:38 am »

The people just want to know Trump is sane (& he isn't) & desperately want reasons to vote Clinton.

People have to take into account that she is the most unelectable corrupt dishonest & fraudulent Dem Pres candidate in recent history. As long as Trump is sane & doesn't have major screwups he will make it close!

You're a sad, obsessive and delusional weirdo.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #68 on: October 28, 2016, 07:44:12 am »

As long as Trump is sane & doesn't have major screwups he will make it close!

Since when has Trump been sane? Was he sane on the day that he announced his candidacy and said that all Mexicans were criminals, rapists and murderers? Has he been sane since? Even for only one day? I don't think so.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #69 on: October 28, 2016, 07:47:40 am »

Deplorable clickbait Nate Silver is in a good mood again...
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/

Quote
Clearer signs now of a tighter race, as Trump has inched up to 21% in our polls-plus forecast (19% in polls-only) http://53eig.ht/2934XS8
Img

Quote
All of Trump's gains have come from Johnson -- who's down to an all-time low in our forecast -- and undecided.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #70 on: October 28, 2016, 07:57:08 am »
« Edited: October 28, 2016, 07:59:08 am by eric82oslo »

Had Donald Trump kept a lid on inflammatory remarks, and had he had a firmer grasp of policy and been better in the debates, he would be winning this election handily. He could have beaten any other Democrat - Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Russ Feingold, he would have wiped the floor with Martin O'Malley, John Hickenlooper, Andrew Cuomo...

Sad, but true. Farag'ish Trump would be a deal Sad

Why do people always compare Trump to Farage? Farage is a very likable person. Farage is the kind of person who can easily sell you a bag of dog poop for 10,000 dollars, and you wouldn't even notice. Trump is the exact opposite of Farage. Trump makes everything look much worse than it actually is, simply because he hates the world so much and everything that is not Trump (or has a connection to) is by definition awful. Farage is a political star in Europe/UK for a reason. And there's a very good reason why his UKIP is now crumbling before our eyes and absolutely without any ability to choose a new leader. Because without Farage at its helmet, the party is nothing anymore. And might even risk disappearing completely. Farage is one of the most charismatic politicians in UK political history. That's why he managed to grow his party that quickly and big as it got within a very short span of time.
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Figueira
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« Reply #71 on: October 28, 2016, 08:05:11 am »

I do believe she will win. It is just a bit jarring to see some of the posts on here from folks planning their celebration for election night when it is in part still flying around.

Hillary will run up huge margins in CA NY and other blue states. That doesn't help her one bit in FL or OH. Again, do the math.

maths

Florida and Ohio don't get Trump to 270. He needs states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Minnesota, Virginia, or Michigan, and he's currently down at least 6 in all of those. You're right that we shouldn't get complacent, but it's not razor-thin like you're implying.
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Beef
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« Reply #72 on: October 28, 2016, 08:06:53 am »

Deplorable clickbait Nate Silver is in a good mood again...
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/

Quote
Clearer signs now of a tighter race, as Trump has inched up to 21% in our polls-plus forecast (19% in polls-only) http://53eig.ht/2934XS8
Img

Quote
All of Trump's gains have come from Johnson -- who's down to an all-time low in our forecast -- and undecided.

The 60-day race oscillation won't get to an inflection point fast enough for Trump to have a chance.  If the election were held on Nov 28 Clinton would be in trouble. Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #73 on: October 28, 2016, 08:07:58 am »

Why do people always compare Trump to Farage?

The ~same policies. No?

Farage is a very likable person. Farage is the kind of person who can easily sell you a bag of dog poop for 10,000 dollars, and you wouldn't even notice. Trump is the exact opposite of Farage. Trump makes everything look much worse than it actually is, simply because he hates the world so much and everything that is not Trump (or has a connection to) is by definition awful. Farage is a political star in Europe/UK for a reason. And there's a very good reason why his UKIP is now crumbling before our eyes and absolutely without any ability to choose a new leader. Because without Farage at its helmet, the party is nothing anymore. And might even risk disappearing completely. Farage is one of the most charismatic politicians in UK political history. That's why he managed to grow his party that quickly and big as it got within a very short span of time.
Yep Smiley
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Brittain33
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« Reply #74 on: October 28, 2016, 08:10:30 am »

I don't think it's over yet, because Trump could still pull a rabbit out of a hat.

It's over. The only "rabbit" Trump could pull out of a hat would be changing his personality, and he's missed every previous opportunity to do it. There's no chance left to reintroduce himself even if he were to change; his best hope is to lay low and let some Republicans come home because he isn't humiliating some sympathetic civilian at the moment and making them feel bad about voting for him.
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