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  Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12  (Read 6754 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #25 on: October 27, 2016, 02:17:30 pm »

A- and R bias.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #26 on: October 27, 2016, 02:17:35 pm »


A- if I recall
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #27 on: October 27, 2016, 02:19:01 pm »


They've consistently been Hillary's worst state polls all cycle.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #28 on: October 27, 2016, 02:19:56 pm »

North Carolina is clearly moving into the light blue camp.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #29 on: October 27, 2016, 02:20:17 pm »

Wow! Looks like we may just bring those corn-adled inbreds to heel after all!
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #30 on: October 27, 2016, 02:24:57 pm »

Love it.
Looks like she still has a shot at IA.
And NC is clearly and safely a "Lean Dem" state.
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #31 on: October 27, 2016, 02:26:17 pm »
« Edited: October 27, 2016, 02:29:40 pm by Fancy Bear »

Wow! Looks like we may just bring those corn-adled inbreds to heel after all!
...stahp. Don't insult the second basket.
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tinman64
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« Reply #32 on: October 27, 2016, 02:26:56 pm »

I'm willing to take NC and VA as new " light to medium blue" states. Trumpy and the GOP can have IA and Hooterville.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #33 on: October 27, 2016, 02:28:30 pm »

And yet their senate polls tomorrow will be Republican-friendly.
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Going along with It
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« Reply #34 on: October 27, 2016, 02:31:14 pm »

Who would have thought the Democrats would be doing better in Georgia and North Carolina than in Ohio and Iowa.
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Hammy
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« Reply #35 on: October 27, 2016, 02:32:05 pm »

For the record, in their September 22nd polls, Trump lead by 7 in Georgia, Trump lead by 7 in Iowa, Clinton lead by 3 in North Carolina and by 6 in Georgia. Improvement across the board.

Ironic since just yesterday the forum had a panic about the race supposedly tightening in Trump's favor.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #36 on: October 27, 2016, 02:39:12 pm »

Ha!

@hellofasandwich

In late Oct. '12, SUSA polled GA and had Romney up 51-48 among early voters.

Per Quinnipiac, Clinton is leading the GA early vote by 48-42.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #37 on: October 27, 2016, 02:40:31 pm »

For whatever reason, these polls plus Clinton up 6 in the PEW poll took a full % point off her lead. I have no idea why!
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RJEvans
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« Reply #38 on: October 27, 2016, 02:47:45 pm »

"Head-to-head matchups among likely voters show:

GA: Clinton-Trump tied at 46 - 46 percent;
IA: Trump at 47 percent to Clinton's 46 percent;
NC: Clinton leads Trump 50 - 44 percent;
VA: Clinton buries Trump 53 - 40 percent."

She's at 50% in NC and VA in the H2H. That's very good news for Clinton 12 days before the election.

Early voters
Clinton leads 48 - 42 in GA
Clinton leads 61 - 27 in IA
Clinton leads 62 - 34 in NC


Are we certain the Clinton camp did not reach out to low propensity GOP Never Trumpers in their GOTV in IA?

For whatever reason, these polls plus Clinton up 6 in the PEW poll took a full % point off her lead. I have no idea why!

Neither do I. I don't see how a these numbers can indicate anything but increased chances.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #39 on: October 27, 2016, 02:55:20 pm »

omfg these polls INCREASED Trump's 538 chance by 1%!

When will dopey fraud Nate Silver finally be made to pay for his crimes?!
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #40 on: October 27, 2016, 02:58:34 pm »

omfg these polls INCREASED Trump's 538 chance by 1%!

When will dopey fraud Nate Silver finally be made to pay for his crimes?!



W...w...what was that, Donald?  These are actually tremendous?  YUGE, even?  O...o...o...ok, I'll go update our model.  
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Yes, sir.  Yes.  The Yankees certainly still have a chance.  Still two creams and one sugar?  Okie dokie. 
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #41 on: October 27, 2016, 03:00:40 pm »

I can't tell you the exact reason but

Fivethirtyeight

decreased Hillary's chance in NC
decreased Hillary's chance in GA
decreased Hillary's chance nationally

My incomplete explanation is that she has to expand her rubber band if she wants to go any higher like something showing GA Clinton +5.

Anything that continues to solidify Trump's lead in red leaning state can only bring her down.
It becomes exponentially more difficult to go from 85% to 90%; 90% to 95% and so on.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #42 on: October 27, 2016, 03:01:10 pm »

omfg these polls INCREASED Trump's 538 chance by 1%!

When will dopey fraud Nate Silver finally be made to pay for his crimes?!

I think his increased chances stem for his improvement in OH. It's flipped in 2 of the 3 models.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #43 on: October 27, 2016, 03:01:51 pm »

I can't tell you the exact reason but

Fivethirtyeight

decreased Hillary's chance in NC
decreased Hillary's chance in GA
decreased Hillary's chance nationally

My incomplete explanation is that she has to expand her rubber band if she wants to go any higher like something showing GA Clinton +5.

Anything that continues to solidify Trump's lead in red leaning state can only bring her down.
It becomes exponentially more difficult to go from 85% to 90%; 90% to 95% and so on.

Or Nate is just a stupid little bitch looking for clicks. 
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Maxwell
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« Reply #44 on: October 27, 2016, 03:09:10 pm »
« Edited: October 27, 2016, 03:11:12 pm by Maxwell »

this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.
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TC 25
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« Reply #45 on: October 27, 2016, 03:13:08 pm »

I thought the left worships at the altar of Nate Silver.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #46 on: October 27, 2016, 03:14:24 pm »

I thought the left worships at the altar of Nate Silver.

"the left" likes accurate, coherent analysis, which Silver has been doing less and less of, replacing it with clickbait articles and bloviating punditisms.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #47 on: October 27, 2016, 03:16:48 pm »

LOL at Trump still trying in VA. I'm seeing more Trump ads in the last few days than ever before.

Hopefully Ross can pull this off, but because this is Quinnipiac I'm sure Burr will be outperforming Trump by 10 points or something.
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #48 on: October 27, 2016, 03:18:09 pm »

LOL at Trump still trying in VA. I'm seeing more Trump ads than ever before in the last few days.

Hopefully Ross can pull this off, but because this is Quinnipiac I'm sure Burr will be outperforming Trump by 10 points or something.

He is just campaigning there because he is too lazy to go campaign past Ohio or Florida since he is in his bunker.
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Pyro
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« Reply #49 on: October 27, 2016, 03:19:49 pm »

Can we quit it with the panic threads now?
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