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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12  (Read 5552 times)
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
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Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« on: October 27, 2016, 03:09:10 pm »
« edited: October 27, 2016, 03:11:12 pm by Maxwell »

this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.
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Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2016, 03:14:24 pm »

I thought the left worships at the altar of Nate Silver.

"the left" likes accurate, coherent analysis, which Silver has been doing less and less of, replacing it with clickbait articles and bloviating punditisms.
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Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2016, 03:20:57 pm »

h2h:

Georgia - 46% Clinton v. 46% Trump
Iowa - 47% Trump v. 46% Clinton
North Carolina - 50% Clinton v. 44% Trump (!!!)
Virginia - 53% Clinton v. 41% Trump
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Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2016, 03:22:52 pm »

She also leads 61-27 (!!!) among Iowa early voters, which means if the bottom drops on Trumper enthusiasm, Iowa could get ugly quickly.
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Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2016, 03:31:28 pm »

RCP had a compromise - they put in the North Carolina and Iowa polls, but hilariously not the Georgia or the Virginia polls.

insert perspiration dog gif.
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Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2016, 03:46:36 pm »

withdrawing my complaint - they just added georgia.
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Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2016, 04:46:44 pm »

this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.
USA! USA! USA! USA!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Are you critiquing Silver or me?

I mean I guess the big swinger is the Missouri poll showing Trump up 11, but really why should a Missouri poll swing it that much when we basically know Trump is going to win Missouri?
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