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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  AZ-Saguaro Strategies (D): Clinton +2
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Author Topic: AZ-Saguaro Strategies (D): Clinton +2  (Read 1947 times)
Castro
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« on: October 27, 2016, 07:40:48 pm »
« edited: October 27, 2016, 07:45:18 pm by Castro »

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 46%
Johnson - 5%
Stein - 1%

Poll of 2385 likely voters conducted over October 22-24. No Undecided option was given.

https://www.scribd.com/document/329155539/Saguaro-Strategies-General-Election-Survey-October-22-24
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2016, 07:42:30 pm »

Never heard of this pollster before. But still good news for Clinton.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2016, 07:43:09 pm »

Democratic pollster, doesn't look like an internal though.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2016, 07:43:21 pm »

Hands down the best-named pollster of this presidential campaign.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2016, 07:44:38 pm »
« Edited: October 27, 2016, 07:49:49 pm by Interlocutor »

'Undecided' wasn't asked at all?


EDIT: Should've read the first paragraph...
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2016, 07:45:39 pm »

I like the large sample size.
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Arch
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2016, 07:46:48 pm »

Looks like HRC is carrying AZ.
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Castro
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2016, 07:48:32 pm »

How do you intend to vote?
Already Have - 24%
By Mail - 45%
In Person Early - 6%
On Election Day - 25%
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2016, 07:48:46 pm »

'Undecided' wasn't asked at all?

The document says:

Quote
This survey did not provide an undecided option to give a more realistic standing of the state of play in Arizona.  Some recent surveys have given an undecided number of 15-to-20 percent.  At this point in the race, we wanted to test how registered likely voters will fill out their ballot on Election Day.

And the ballot question was worded: If the election for President were held today -- and you had to make a choice -- who would you vote for?
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2016, 07:49:17 pm »

The yuge sample size gives me some hope, but the methodology could still be crap.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2016, 07:50:44 pm »

For anyone looking for a track record, they tweeted that this was their first ever poll.  https://twitter.com/SaguaroStrategy/status/791753888558817280
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2016, 07:51:29 pm »

This is a HUGE sample size...

What is interesting is that 24% say they have already voted....

Can any of our more informed colleagues see if this is a correct proportion of EVs to date?

Overall the Party ID, Age, and Gender numbers looks about right, although I didn't see anything regarding self ID of race/ethnicity.

Meanwhile, appears to be good news for the Pro-Marijuana Legalization forces in one of weakest links in the "Green Chain" other than potentially Mass....
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Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2016, 07:55:53 pm »

Looks like HRC is carrying AZ.
When combined With higher Democratic Turnout it is lean D.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2016, 07:58:01 pm »

every 20 years Arizona wants to vote for a Clinton :-)
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Crumpets
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2016, 08:02:50 pm »

How the heck has this decreased Hillary's chances in Arizona according to 538?!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2016, 08:05:53 pm »

How the heck has this decreased Hillary's chances in Arizona according to 538?!

Something very strange is going on with 538s models...
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2016, 08:07:44 pm »

How the heck has this decreased Hillary's chances in Arizona according to 538?!

Something very strange is going on with 538s models...
Nate reads Atlas daily and updated to make people piss their pants.

Arizona is def going blue. I can sense it. Sure, that may sound really dumb, but I just have a feeling.
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Figueira
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2016, 08:10:19 pm »

How the heck has this decreased Hillary's chances in Arizona according to 538?!

I think it was the Gravis national poll that did that.
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Arch
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2016, 08:10:41 pm »

Yea, every time a positive poll has been put in for HRC today, her chances have been going down. It's f-d up, but whatever. It's not like his model will change the outcome.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2016, 08:11:54 pm »

Hmmm... I still think Monmouth's numbers are a bit more accurate. But yeah, this is a Tossup.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2016, 08:15:27 pm »

How the heck has this decreased Hillary's chances in Arizona according to 538?!

Something very strange is going on with 538s models...

Yup, Upshot is my new go to model.
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Lok
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2016, 08:23:23 pm »

How the heck has this decreased Hillary's chances in Arizona according to 538?!

Something very strange is going on with 538s models...
We need a ban on 538 until we can figure out what the hell is going on.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2016, 09:25:54 pm »

Looks like HRC is carrying AZ.

I hope you are right.
That would be an awesome thing to see on Nov 8th.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2016, 09:28:16 pm »

1. Donald Trump has said nasty things about Hispanics.

2. His personal life offends Mormon sensibilities.

When one has two large groups trying to teach America a political lesson, strange things can happen at the polls. Politics makes some strange alliances. Arizona has lots of Hispanics... and Mormons. I would have never have expected Hispanics and Mormons to have much in common in any Presidential election, but this is one weird election.

It's not enough to be conservative on economics to win the Mormon vote. It has been a long time since any Presidential nominee had so visibly objectionable a personal life as Donald Trump.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #24 on: October 27, 2016, 10:10:10 pm »

Nice result for Clinton. Also,

Hands down the best-named pollster of this presidential campaign.
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