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  FL-PPP: Clinton +4
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Author Topic: FL-PPP: Clinton +4  (Read 1699 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: October 28, 2016, 09:54:17 am »

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 44%

PPP surveyed 742 likely Florida voters from October 25-26, 2016.

*Poll was sponsored by Americans for Responsible Solutions PAC.

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000158-0ab5-d236-ad5d-dab74e5e0001
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2016, 09:55:12 am »

there is nothing to four but four itself.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2016, 09:55:19 am »

Lights out Donny.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2016, 09:56:24 am »

Make sure to note that this is a Democratic internal for a gun control group....
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North Fulton Swing
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2016, 09:56:46 am »

A steady result here.  The early voting has been beneficial for the Democrats.  I think the final margin will resemble 2008--a close but definite victory for Hillary.

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2016, 09:57:21 am »

Make sure to note that this is a Democratic internal for a gun control group....

*Poll was sponsored by Americans for Responsible Solutions PAC.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2016, 09:58:14 am »

Make sure to note that this is a Democratic internal for a gun control group....

*Poll was sponsored by Americans for Responsible Solutions PAC.
I wasn't talking to you silly, I was talking to the people calling it over because of a gun control group commissioned poll Tongue
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2016, 09:59:13 am »

Single-issue left-leaning advocacy group that also produced an unusual Senate result while trashing Rubio in the press release.  I think Trump can pull this one out!
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2016, 09:59:17 am »

PPP is a credible pollster....would harm them if they are far off.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2016, 10:00:48 am »

Single-issue left-leaning advocacy group that also produced an unusual Senate result while trashing Rubio in the press release.  I think Trump can pull this one out!

As mentioned in the senate thread, that group sponsored the poll but did not conduct it. PPP conducted it.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2016, 10:01:09 am »

I think this is a reasonable result by a reasonable pollster...even if I am not totally on board with who commissioned it.
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Arch
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2016, 10:01:21 am »

Single-issue left-leaning advocacy group that also produced an unusual Senate result while trashing Rubio in the press release.  I think Trump can pull this one out!

As mentioned in the senate thread, that group sponsored the poll but did not conduct it. PPP conducted it.

Yep, this is PPP guys.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2016, 10:02:50 am »

Yawn......at 4.
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Figueira
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2016, 10:03:36 am »

This is the same margin as their last poll of Florida. I'd say it's a pretty good result for Clinton.

Even if it's a slightly Democratic-leaning poll, losing Florida by 4 points less than a fortnight before the election is very, very bad news for Trump.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2016, 10:06:04 am »

The group commissioning the poll isn't going to affect the result, if the pollster is sound (which PPP is).  What it might affect is whether the poll gets released or not.  If this poll had been Trump+4, the gun control group might have decided to sit on it.  So yes, it's more likely that polls commissioned by advocacy groups are likely to favor their preferred side, but this is because the unfavorable ones are less likely to be released, not because the favorable poll has been manipulated.

Assuming this behavior is true, what can we conclude from it?  We probably need to look at the totality of all such polls, from groups on both ends of the spectrum.  If there are more such polls being released by one side than the other, then that side has more favorable polls that they can release -- i.e., they're ahead.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2016, 10:12:42 am »
« Edited: October 28, 2016, 10:16:04 am by Seriously? »

The group commissioning the poll isn't going to affect the result, if the pollster is sound (which PPP is).  What it might affect is whether the poll gets released or not.  If this poll had been Trump+4, the gun control group might have decided to sit on it.  So yes, it's more likely that polls commissioned by advocacy groups are likely to favor their preferred side, but this is because the unfavorable ones are less likely to be released, not because the favorable poll has been manipulated.

Assuming this behavior is true, what can we conclude from it?  We probably need to look at the totality of all such polls, from groups on both ends of the spectrum.  If there are more such polls being released by one side than the other, then that side has more favorable polls that they can release -- i.e., they're ahead.
Of course it is. Clients drive the narrative. And also note what's NOT released here. The internals, like they are in just about every other PPP poll (even the advocacy ones). Come on now. It's like you all were born yesterday.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2016, 10:17:40 am »

The group commissioning the poll isn't going to affect the result, if the pollster is sound (which PPP is).  What it might affect is whether the poll gets released or not.  If this poll had been Trump+4, the gun control group might have decided to sit on it.  So yes, it's more likely that polls commissioned by advocacy groups are likely to favor their preferred side, but this is because the unfavorable ones are less likely to be released, not because the favorable poll has been manipulated.

Assuming this behavior is true, what can we conclude from it?  We probably need to look at the totality of all such polls, from groups on both ends of the spectrum.  If there are more such polls being released by one side than the other, then that side has more favorable polls that they can release -- i.e., they're ahead.
Of course it is. Clients drive the narrative. And also note what's NOT released here. The internals, like they are in just about every other PPP poll. Come on now.

Please stop stinking this place up with your dog sweat, I just had lunch. 

That said...

ABSOLUTELY FANTABULOUS NEWS!!!  CONFIRMS ALL OF OUR DELICIOUS C+4 FLORIDA POLLS!
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North Fulton Swing
mollybecky
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2016, 10:19:34 am »

PPP hit the nail on the head in 2012.  Not only did they call it for Obama (the Tampa Bay Times poll had Romney +6--I was in Florida that last week of the election), they had the percentage perfectly (50-49 for Obama, which was the final result).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2016, 10:21:45 am »

Not even Rick Scott can stop the Hillary Clinton steamroller.

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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2016, 10:22:44 am »

So much for adding five to internal and advocacy polls.
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Arch
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« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2016, 10:24:17 am »

So much for adding five to internal and advocacy polls.

This poll is neither an internal nor was it conducted by an advocacy group.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2016, 10:29:36 am »

So much for adding five to internal and advocacy polls.

Shouldn't you be in class or something?
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Impeachment Inquiry
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« Reply #22 on: October 28, 2016, 10:30:56 am »

It doesn't matter who the poll was conducted for. Trump is done, but all but a few desperate
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Figueira
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« Reply #23 on: October 28, 2016, 10:31:54 am »

The group commissioning the poll isn't going to affect the result, if the pollster is sound (which PPP is).  What it might affect is whether the poll gets released or not.  If this poll had been Trump+4, the gun control group might have decided to sit on it.  So yes, it's more likely that polls commissioned by advocacy groups are likely to favor their preferred side, but this is because the unfavorable ones are less likely to be released, not because the favorable poll has been manipulated.

Assuming this behavior is true, what can we conclude from it?  We probably need to look at the totality of all such polls, from groups on both ends of the spectrum.  If there are more such polls being released by one side than the other, then that side has more favorable polls that they can release -- i.e., they're ahead.

Does the advocacy group actually have the ability to decide whether to release the poll?

Anyway, we should stop the ageist attacks on Classic Conservative, as terrible as we find his views.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #24 on: October 28, 2016, 10:34:53 am »

So much for adding five to internal and advocacy polls.

This poll is neither an internal nor was it conducted by an advocacy group.
Yeah, because Republicans are universally for gun control.
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