FL-PPP: Clinton +4 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 08:03:42 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL-PPP: Clinton +4 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: FL-PPP: Clinton +4  (Read 2242 times)
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


« on: October 28, 2016, 10:03:36 AM »

This is the same margin as their last poll of Florida. I'd say it's a pretty good result for Clinton.

Even if it's a slightly Democratic-leaning poll, losing Florida by 4 points less than a fortnight before the election is very, very bad news for Trump.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2016, 10:31:54 AM »

The group commissioning the poll isn't going to affect the result, if the pollster is sound (which PPP is).  What it might affect is whether the poll gets released or not.  If this poll had been Trump+4, the gun control group might have decided to sit on it.  So yes, it's more likely that polls commissioned by advocacy groups are likely to favor their preferred side, but this is because the unfavorable ones are less likely to be released, not because the favorable poll has been manipulated.

Assuming this behavior is true, what can we conclude from it?  We probably need to look at the totality of all such polls, from groups on both ends of the spectrum.  If there are more such polls being released by one side than the other, then that side has more favorable polls that they can release -- i.e., they're ahead.

Does the advocacy group actually have the ability to decide whether to release the poll?

Anyway, we should stop the ageist attacks on Classic Conservative, as terrible as we find his views.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2016, 11:09:20 AM »

538 hasn't adjusted this poll at all, although they adjusted the tied Senate poll to Rubio+1.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.018 seconds with 13 queries.