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  FL-Saint Leo University: Clinton +13
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Author Topic: FL-Saint Leo University: Clinton +13  (Read 1376 times)
mark_twain
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« Reply #25 on: October 28, 2016, 04:28:17 pm »


A bit high, but I'll take it.

Even if the margin were cut in half to +6.5%, it's still great!



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Eraserhead
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« Reply #26 on: October 28, 2016, 06:46:43 pm »

Of course any good poll for Hillary is called junk. Trump isn't going to win.

Do you really believe she's leading by 13% in Florida?
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Ebowed
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« Reply #27 on: October 28, 2016, 07:07:16 pm »

Saint Leo University is the GOLD STANDARD of Florida polling!! Great news!!!
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #28 on: October 28, 2016, 07:13:39 pm »

Of course any good poll for Hillary is called junk. Trump isn't going to win.

Do you really believe she's leading by 13% in Florida?

Somewhere around there. Florida votes pretty close to the country as a whole and Clinton is winning by double digits nationally. It's never made sense to me that Clinton was only up 4~ points there.

Ofc 13% is a bit on the high end but it's still in the neighborhood of what I'd expect. Personally I think Clinton will win Florida by around 9 points.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #29 on: October 28, 2016, 07:22:32 pm »

Of course any good poll for Hillary is called junk. Trump isn't going to win.

Do you really believe she's leading by 13% in Florida?

Somewhere around there. Florida votes pretty close to the country as a whole and Clinton is winning by double digits nationally. It's never made sense to me that Clinton was only up 4~ points there.

Ofc 13% is a bit on the high end but it's still in the neighborhood of what I'd expect. Personally I think Clinton will win Florida by around 9 points.

Yes, there have been a few national polls with Clinton up by double digits.  You can't look at only these polls to say that's where the race is.  There have also been polls that showed a very close race, and more that showed it with a moderate Clinton lead (mid to high single digits).  This is exactly the spread you'd expect if she had a lead of about 6-7.  Don't look at only the outliers (on either end of the spectrum); this is not being intellectually honest with yourself.

It's also unlikely that Florida will vote more Democratic than the national average.  So while I do expect Clinton to win Florida, it will be by much less than double digits.  Neither do I expect it to be a squeaker; if I had to pick a number, it would be (dare I say it...) 4.
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