Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 19, 2019, 09:47:43 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: New features added! Click here for more information. Click here to configure new features.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  Emerson: FL HRC+1, OH Tie, NV HRC +2, NC HRC +3, WI HRC +6
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Emerson: FL HRC+1, OH Tie, NV HRC +2, NC HRC +3, WI HRC +6  (Read 1736 times)
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,499



View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 29, 2016, 03:11:59 pm »

Florida
Clinton 46%
Trump 45%
Johnson 4%

Ohio
Clinton 45%
Trump 45%
Johnson 6%

Nevada
Clinton 44%
Trump 42%
Johnson 3%

North Carolina
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%
Johnson 4%

Wisconsin
Clinton 48%
Trump 42%
Johnson 9%

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf
Logged
Devout Centrist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,256
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.45, S: -10.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2016, 03:12:20 pm »

Lights out, Donny.
Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,953
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2016, 03:12:51 pm »

This does seem to suggest it's tightening.
Logged


"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,709
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2016, 03:12:57 pm »

Considering this is Emerson trash, good numbers for Clinton.
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,709
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2016, 03:13:30 pm »

This does seem to suggest it's tightening.
No.
Logged
Devout Centrist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,256
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.45, S: -10.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2016, 03:13:46 pm »

This does seem to suggest it's tightening.
By a landline only pollster?! These are fantastic numbers for HRC.
Logged
mark_twain
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 374
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2016, 03:14:00 pm »

Solid numbers for Clinton!

Keep it up!
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,198
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2016, 03:14:26 pm »

This does seem to suggest it's tightening.

It literally absolutely factually doesn't.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,052


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2016, 03:15:20 pm »

And just checking, the link confirms that they're still using IVR to landlines only.
Logged

Originally a Rockefeller Republican, then a long-time independent.  Converted to the Democrats in October 2018 out of revulsion at what the Republican party has become.
BundouYMB
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 827


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2016, 03:16:42 pm »

Emerson LOL
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,593
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2016, 03:18:04 pm »

This is Emerson so these are very good polls for her. The Ohio tie is the best of the bunch
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,732
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2016, 03:18:41 pm »

This does seem to suggest it's tightening.

or that a pollster with a historic right-lean and landline only polling shows Clinton ahead in many swing states.

you know, take your pick.
Logged
Ozymandias
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 471


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2016, 03:23:53 pm »

For comparison, their Senate results are: Rubio+2, Portman+14, Heck+4, Burr+4, Feingold+5

So Clinton running ahead of every Dem. Senate candidate in their poll.
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,949
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2016, 03:24:25 pm »

For comparison, their Senate results are: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14

So Clinton running ahead of every Dem. Senate candidate in their poll.

Rubio seems to be in trouble these last few weeks.
Logged

Sic semper tyrannis.
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2016, 03:25:18 pm »

These are actually great for Hillary coming from Emerson, but they were conducted pre-emails.
Logged

Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,770
United States



View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2016, 03:45:21 pm »

These are actually great for Hillary coming from Emerson, but they were conducted pre-emails.

What emails? None of the emails were from Clinton. Move on.
Logged

LOCK TRUMP UP!
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2016, 03:55:55 pm »

These are actually great for Hillary coming from Emerson, but they were conducted pre-emails.

What emails? None of the emails were from Clinton. Move on.

I don't know...maybe the ones the media has been spamming us about yesterday and today? You're preaching to the choir. The people who decide elections don't care about the nitty gritty. You'll see when the post email polls drop.
Logged

Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,770
United States



View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2016, 04:12:21 pm »

Well unfortunately for the haters a ton of the early vote is in which renders Comey's desperate Hail Mary useless. Plus, Trump is psychotic and that makes voters staying home or flipping a lot less likely.
Logged

LOCK TRUMP UP!
Ozymandias
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 471


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2016, 04:20:41 pm »

Here are the breakdowns for the early voters in each of these four pols (details starting here: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249803.msg5350583#msg5350583)

FL: Clinton - 57, Trump - 42, Johnson - 0.4, Stein - 0.4 (based on 257 of 500 LV = 51%)

NC: Clinton - 59, Trump - 37, Johnson - 0.4 (based on 209 of 650 LV = 32%)

NV: Clinton - 49, Trump - 32, Johnson - 2.5 (based on 237 of 550 LV = 43%)

OH: Clinton - 59, Trump - 35, Johnson - 0, Stein - 0 (based on 223 of 800 LV = 28%)

(Note Stein not on ballot in NC or NV)
« Last Edit: October 29, 2016, 04:22:31 pm by Ozymandias »Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,474
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2016, 04:26:07 pm »

This does seem to suggest it's tightening.

or that a pollster with a historic right-lean and landline only polling shows Clinton ahead in many swing states.

you know, take your pick.

Yeah---- I'm curious about percentage of landline only versus cell phone only by state, demographics, and age, since I suspect certain states like OH might have a higher population of landline-only residents versus states with large numbers of Millennials and less frequent voters.
Logged

TarHeelDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,064
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2016, 04:27:07 pm »

NC drifting left of NV? Fantastic!
Logged

"However difficult the moment, however frustrating the hour, it will not be long, because 'truth crushed to earth will rise again.'

How long? Not long, because 'no lie can live forever.'

How long? Not long, because 'you shall reap what you sow.' [...]

How long? Not long, because the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice." -Dr. Martin Luther King
matthew27
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,475
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -1.22

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2016, 04:37:48 pm »

NC drifting left of NV? Fantastic!

I was reading through the 2012 early vote thread on this forum and the percentage % is similar to 2012 for the early vote.
Logged
ProudModerate2
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,489
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2016, 04:38:41 pm »

This is Emerson so these are very good polls for her. The Ohio tie is the best of the bunch
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,223
Greece


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2016, 04:52:10 pm »

Here are the breakdowns for the early voters in each of these four pols (details starting here: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249803.msg5350583#msg5350583)

FL: Clinton - 57, Trump - 42, Johnson - 0.4, Stein - 0.4 (based on 257 of 500 LV = 51%)

NC: Clinton - 59, Trump - 37, Johnson - 0.4 (based on 209 of 650 LV = 32%)

NV: Clinton - 49, Trump - 32, Johnson - 2.5 (based on 237 of 550 LV = 43%)

OH: Clinton - 59, Trump - 35, Johnson - 0, Stein - 0 (based on 223 of 800 LV = 28%)

(Note Stein not on ballot in NC or NV)

Even more proof that at the end of the day the third party vote will be almost negligible.
Logged

Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,052


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2016, 04:55:43 pm »

This does seem to suggest it's tightening.

or that a pollster with a historic right-lean and landline only polling shows Clinton ahead in many swing states.

you know, take your pick.

Yeah---- I'm curious about percentage of landline only versus cell phone only by state, demographics, and age, since I suspect certain states like OH might have a higher population of landline-only residents versus states with large numbers of Millennials and less frequent voters.

The CDC tracks this information.  There's a good demographic breakdown from 2015 at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/wireless201512.pdf.  The latest state-by-state data I can find is a bit dated (2011-2012) at http://www.cdc.gov/nchS/data/nhsr/nhsr070.pdf.  Enjoy. Smiley
Logged

Originally a Rockefeller Republican, then a long-time independent.  Converted to the Democrats in October 2018 out of revulsion at what the Republican party has become.
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines