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| | | | |-+  Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
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Author Topic: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14  (Read 1450 times)
Ozymandias
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« on: October 29, 2016, 03:20:17 pm »

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf

FLORIDA
Marco   Rubio (R):   49%         
Patrick   Murphy (D):   47%         
Other:   3%
Undecided:   1%

NEVADA      
Joe   Heck (R):   48%      
Catherine   Cortez   Masto (D):   44%   
Someone   else:   3%
Undecided   6%

NORTH CAROLINA
Richard   Burr (R):   48%   
Deborah   Ross (D):   44%      
Someone   Else:   3%
Undecided   6%

WISCONSIN   
Russ   Feingold (D):   49%
Ron   Johnson (R):   44%   
Other:   4%
Undecided   3%

OHIO
Rob   Portman   (R):   49%
Ted   Strickland   (D):   35%            
Someone   else:   4%
Undecided:   12%
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2016, 03:23:49 pm »

Emerson is junk and will be proven to be junk on Election Day.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2016, 03:32:40 pm »

Nice.
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2016, 03:37:03 pm »

oh ffs
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2016, 04:02:59 pm »

So Heck is either up 7, up 4, down 1, or down 6. Thanks a lot, pollsters. I have no idea what this is supposed to tell me.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2016, 05:03:42 pm »

I'd say something like, roughly, +5 D to all these. T

Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2016, 05:13:47 pm »

I'd say something like, roughly, +5 D to all these. T

Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9.
Then you're being silly. Plus One is more likely, plus two is a stretch, plus five is not in the realm of possibility.
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2016, 05:17:54 pm »

I'd say something like, roughly, +5 D to all these. T

Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9.

I don't like these results, so I'll just unskew them so they look good.

FTFY
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King Francis I
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2016, 05:20:29 pm »

Emerson is a well known trash firm, so I'm not going to comment it
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2016, 05:40:42 pm »

I'd say something like, roughly, +5 D to all these. T

Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9.

I don't like these results, so I'll just unskew them so they look good.

FTFY
Emerson's junk. Unskewing is junk. Put the two together, and you get a positive.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2016, 06:14:05 pm »

New Poll: Ohio Senator by Emerson College on 2016-10-27

Summary: D: 35%, R: 49%, I: 4%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2016, 06:15:56 pm »

New Poll: Florida Senator by Emerson College on 2016-10-27

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, I: 3%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2016, 06:16:46 pm »

New Poll: Wisconsin Senator by Emerson College on 2016-10-28

Summary: D: 49%, R: 44%, I: 4%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2016, 06:36:10 pm »

Hmmm, if Emerson only finds Flawless Beautiful Marco Purple heart Purple heart Purple heart up 2, maybe he really is in trouble.
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2016, 06:58:08 pm »

Even Emerson can only find Rubio up by 2? Looks like Murphy's going to pull this out after all.
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2016, 07:14:39 pm »

Even Emerson can only find Rubio up by 2? Looks like Murphy's going to pull this out after all.
They also pegged him as having a yuge lead (58-37?) among early voters. Little Marco better watch out.
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2016, 07:22:40 pm »

538 adjusts Emerson for having a +2 pro-R house effect, which is reasonable, but the problem with just adjusting all of these 2 to the R side is that that's the average amount it's off by, not consistent. I think based on other polling, for instance, we could expect a Rubio+2 and Feingold+5 to stay where they are, while Burr and Heck are both tied with their opponents.

But ultimately these things are kind of unknowable.
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2016, 07:23:30 pm »

Even Emerson can only find Rubio up by 2? Looks like Murphy's going to pull this out after all.
They also pegged him as having a yuge lead (58-37?) among early voters. Little Marco better watch out.

Midterms aren't general elections, but polls pretty consistently had Charlie Crist with over 60% of the early vote in FL-2014. He still lost.
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2016, 07:51:28 pm »

I'd say something like, roughly, +5 D to all these. T

Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9.
LOL! Wishful thinking much? Roll Eyes
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2016, 09:47:06 pm »

Emerson sucks but these actually look believable except for NV which I suspect a lot of pollsters are having trouble with.
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2016, 10:00:28 pm »

Emerson sucks but these actually look believable except for NV which I suspect a lot of pollsters are having trouble with.

It would be a huge disappointment if Burr won by 4.
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2016, 11:44:26 pm »

Emerson sucks but these actually look believable except for NV which I suspect a lot of pollsters are having trouble with.

It would be a huge disappointment if Burr won by 4.
It would be really great if North Carolinians woke up and started to #FeelTheBurr.
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