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| | | |-+  2016 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | | | |-+  Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14  (Read 1466 times)
Vosem
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« on: October 29, 2016, 07:22:40 pm »

538 adjusts Emerson for having a +2 pro-R house effect, which is reasonable, but the problem with just adjusting all of these 2 to the R side is that that's the average amount it's off by, not consistent. I think based on other polling, for instance, we could expect a Rubio+2 and Feingold+5 to stay where they are, while Burr and Heck are both tied with their opponents.

But ultimately these things are kind of unknowable.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2016, 07:23:30 pm »

Even Emerson can only find Rubio up by 2? Looks like Murphy's going to pull this out after all.
They also pegged him as having a yuge lead (58-37?) among early voters. Little Marco better watch out.

Midterms aren't general elections, but polls pretty consistently had Charlie Crist with over 60% of the early vote in FL-2014. He still lost.
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