AK-Craciun Research: Clinton +4
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  AK-Craciun Research: Clinton +4
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Author Topic: AK-Craciun Research: Clinton +4  (Read 5945 times)
Maxwell
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« Reply #25 on: October 29, 2016, 08:58:46 PM »

beautiful, wonderful, high energy alaska
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dspNY
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« Reply #26 on: October 29, 2016, 09:01:56 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2016, 09:05:09 PM by dspNY »

Wow. This group was supposedly Lisa Murkowski's internal pollster in 2010 so this is not their first trip around the block in AK
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #27 on: October 29, 2016, 09:05:28 PM »

Didn't I say Alaska was gonna be the sleeper state?
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dspNY
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« Reply #28 on: October 29, 2016, 09:08:54 PM »

This could be the reason:

http://www.nativefederation.org/afn-endorses-presidential-candidate-hillary-clinton/

The Native American population is growing in AK while the white population is decreasing
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mark_twain
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« Reply #29 on: October 29, 2016, 09:10:36 PM »


I now have more respect for the state of Alaska and its people.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #30 on: October 29, 2016, 09:13:15 PM »

Wow. I'll believe it when I see it, but still amazing.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #31 on: October 29, 2016, 09:14:22 PM »

I'd love this, But I think it's too good to be true.
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Person Man
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« Reply #32 on: October 29, 2016, 09:15:26 PM »

This could be the reason:

http://www.nativefederation.org/afn-endorses-presidential-candidate-hillary-clinton/

The Native American population is growing in AK while the white population is decreasing

I can see Natives and Mormons going to great lengths to humiliate Trump and make it a nightmare for him to govern beyond the Mississippi/Missouri if he makes it.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #33 on: October 29, 2016, 09:17:07 PM »

I suspect that Trump's Russian connections aren't playing too well in a state where "People can see Russia from their backyard" not to mention Russian Petro undercutting domestic American Oil production, Russian ships illegally strip-mining the fishing grounds of US territorial waters, in a state heavily dependent on the fishing industry, etc....

Alaskans are not huge fans of foreign countries, and Russia in particular, interfering in an economy heavily based upon natural resources (Fishing, Logging, Oil) and Trump is a very unusual Republican that on the one hand espouses protecting American jobs and resources, but on the other hand, is the worst kind of Republican when it comes to selling those same jobs "down the river" or even potentially worse caving into to Russia, in a state where even in the dying days of the USSR there were regular naval and air incidents and provocations that could potentially have created a major conflict between the two Super Powers of the Cold War.

Just in case some of y'all and youngins' on the forum never heard this classic Johnny Horton song from the 1950s...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSt0NEESrUA&spfreload=10


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Eraserhead
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« Reply #34 on: October 29, 2016, 09:18:34 PM »

Pretty poor showing for Gary.

But yeah... it's a poll of Alaska... so who knows...
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #35 on: October 29, 2016, 09:19:18 PM »

Alaska polling is skewed towards dems. But it would be great to see Trump defending Alaska , Arizona and  Georgia
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #36 on: October 29, 2016, 09:20:21 PM »

I still think Trump will win Alaska.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #37 on: October 29, 2016, 09:22:12 PM »

Alaska polling is skewed towards dems. But it would be great to see Trump defending Alaska , Arizona and  Georgia

Meanwhile, Trump is off to campaign in NM.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #38 on: October 29, 2016, 09:23:29 PM »

Alaska polling is skewed towards dems. But it would be great to see Trump defending Alaska , Arizona and  Georgia

Meanwhile, Trump is off to campaign in NM.

Wasn't Pence there last week?  Wtf are they thinking
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #39 on: October 29, 2016, 09:25:29 PM »

It'd be a fun feather in the cap, but I don't see it flipping until I see more....which we won't.

Maybe, maybe not.
It would be nice though.
But I don't see it flipping either.
We will know the day after the election. To be continued.
(If the election is close in Alaska, we may not know for a number of days, actually.)
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #40 on: October 29, 2016, 09:37:15 PM »

ALASKA!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #41 on: October 29, 2016, 09:39:00 PM »

The weird thing with Alaska is that a large majority of votes are actually cast on ED.

So, for example if early returns show Clinton wining big time it could play both ways in terms of both Democratic and Republican turnout.

So we have a state that is 1-2 time zones out from the West Coast that typically locals feel like their vote doesn't matter when an outcome is already decided, how will this actually play out on ED?

Will it benefit Trump/Clinton or be a total wash when it comes to Alaskans voting in a Pres Election, with no major statewide candidates and ballot measures to spark turnout???
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Crumpets
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« Reply #42 on: October 29, 2016, 09:50:51 PM »

The weird thing with Alaska is that a large majority of votes are actually cast on ED.

So, for example if early returns show Clinton wining big time it could play both ways in terms of both Democratic and Republican turnout.

So we have a state that is 1-2 time zones out from the West Coast that typically locals feel like their vote doesn't matter when an outcome is already decided, how will this actually play out on ED?

Will it benefit Trump/Clinton or be a total wash when it comes to Alaskans voting in a Pres Election, with no major statewide candidates and ballot measures to spark turnout???

There is an interesting Senate race there, although I think pretty much everyone agrees Murkowski is headed for a comfortable re-election.
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Lachi
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« Reply #43 on: October 29, 2016, 09:51:50 PM »

538 adjusted this to C+1
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Ebsy
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« Reply #44 on: October 29, 2016, 10:06:38 PM »

Swing state Alaska!
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Crumpets
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« Reply #45 on: October 29, 2016, 10:07:14 PM »


That's only on nowcast. Polls plus and polls only both have it at Clinton +2.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #46 on: October 29, 2016, 10:18:16 PM »


That's only on nowcast. Polls plus and polls only both have it at Clinton +2.

Why is the poll adjustment a function of the model they apply?

Are they using their own modeling to assess the polls?

If so, that's some questionably circular logic...

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #47 on: October 29, 2016, 10:34:46 PM »

don't know if this poll is credible but as we all know, alaska is trending Dem for quite some time.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #48 on: October 29, 2016, 10:37:35 PM »

Amazing if this happens.  This is what we need--increase the presence of "blue state" people to red states by in-migration and higher birth rates.  This way, we can really put places like Alaska, the Dakotas, and Montana--that's 8 Senate seats right there.  It's our form of gerrymandering!
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #49 on: October 29, 2016, 10:43:33 PM »

Amazing if this happens.  This is what we need--increase the presence of "blue state" people to red states by in-migration and higher birth rates.  This way, we can really put places like Alaska, the Dakotas, and Montana--that's 8 Senate seats right there.  It's our form of gerrymandering!

... getting ahead of ourselves a little bit here.
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