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  FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
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Author Topic: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4  (Read 5988 times)
Dave Leip
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« Reply #25 on: October 30, 2016, 07:52:45 am »

New Poll: Florida President by Siena Research Institute on 2016-10-27

Summary: D: 42%, R: 46%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #26 on: October 30, 2016, 07:58:18 am »

Hmmm... perhaps registered Republicans are lying about their registration?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2016, 08:15:09 am »

Hmmm... perhaps registered Republicans are lying about their registration?
Siena/Upshot use a voter file. So they know voters' registrations. As I understood.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2016, 08:25:57 am »

IIRC, Cohn mentioned one of the downsides of this type of polling is that it fails to pick up on new registrants, which would miss a recent surge in Hispanics registration. That alone probably wouldn't yield a Trump +4 lead though.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #29 on: October 30, 2016, 08:31:38 am »

IIRC, Cohn mentioned one of the downsides of this type of polling is that it fails to pick up on new registrants, which would miss a recent surge in Hispanics registration. That alone probably wouldn't yield a Trump +4 lead though.

That's correct. They use voter registration file so it won't pick up the most recently registered voters.

But nonetheless, 4 point lead is huge.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2016, 09:07:01 am »

If we're counting Upshot as gospel (and I do trust their model a good deal), then NC is just as much a lock for Clinton.
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Ljube
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« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2016, 09:56:41 am »

Never Trump Hispanics are coming home. Grand!
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Ljube
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« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2016, 09:59:42 am »

Next thing is Ana Navarro voting Trump.
And next thing after that - Torie voting Trump. Smiley
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swf541
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« Reply #33 on: October 30, 2016, 10:01:20 am »

Pretty obvious outlier
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Kempros
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« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2016, 10:30:10 am »

This could be very well true as Hill has received some really bad publicity in the last few days.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #35 on: October 30, 2016, 10:31:54 am »


I think I agree - not even Gravis is showing a Trump lead in Florida.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #36 on: October 30, 2016, 10:33:59 am »

IIRC, Cohn mentioned one of the downsides of this type of polling is that it fails to pick up on new registrants, which would miss a recent surge in Hispanics registration. That alone probably wouldn't yield a Trump +4 lead though.

That's correct. They use voter registration file so it won't pick up the most recently registered voters.

But nonetheless, 4 point lead is huge.

That should be a negligible effect though. The biggest difference in this poll is that it weights to party registration, which it notes, lots of other pollster don't. Remains to be seen how accurate this will turn out.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #37 on: October 30, 2016, 10:35:51 am »

This could be very well true as Hill has received some really bad publicity in the last few days.

IDK, what type of bad publicity you are talking about but this poll was coducted    OCT. 25-27.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #38 on: October 30, 2016, 10:39:21 am »

IIRC, Cohn mentioned one of the downsides of this type of polling is that it fails to pick up on new registrants, which would miss a recent surge in Hispanics registration. That alone probably wouldn't yield a Trump +4 lead though.

That's correct. They use voter registration file so it won't pick up the most recently registered voters.

But nonetheless, 4 point lead is huge.

That should be a negligible effect though. The biggest difference in this poll is that it weights to party registration, which it notes, lots of other pollster don't. Remains to be seen how accurate this will turn out.

Which could imply that no "movement" occured [yet], and other polls would show the same results if weighted "properly". If this method is accurate and noice didn't cause it etc.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #39 on: October 30, 2016, 10:56:15 am »

I did. Trump is somehow still ahead in the Early vote after almost a week. The underlying model of a lot of these other polls does not look right.
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« Reply #40 on: October 30, 2016, 11:01:36 am »

I did. Trump is somehow still ahead in the Early vote after almost a week. The underlying model of a lot of these other polls does not look right.

Did they mention an exact number for their early voter subsample?  I didn't see it in the article.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #41 on: October 30, 2016, 11:08:19 am »
« Edited: October 30, 2016, 11:11:24 am by Seriously? »

I did. Trump is somehow still ahead in the Early vote after almost a week. The underlying model of a lot of these other polls does not look right.

Did they mention an exact number for their early voter subsample?  I didn't see it in the article.
I havent deep delved into that, but that's definitely a point of calibration. They do have the ultimate poll at R+2.

It's roughly about even at this point in time. I think Trump has a 30K lead as of yesterday.
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Xing
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« Reply #42 on: October 30, 2016, 11:26:48 am »

Definitely seems R-friendly. I doubt that FL will trend strongly R this year. In fact, it's a prime candidate to trend D.
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Mangez des pommes !
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« Reply #43 on: October 30, 2016, 11:52:43 am »

ok what the f**k
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« Reply #44 on: October 30, 2016, 12:06:50 pm »

I'm regretting ignoring my gut feeling and instinct (and everything I've been saying in posts) and putting Florida in the D column on my official prediction.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #45 on: October 30, 2016, 12:08:24 pm »

I'm regretting ignoring my gut feeling and instinct (and everything I've been saying in posts) and putting Florida in the D column on my official prediction.
This could be very well true as Hill has received some really bad publicity in the last few days.

guys
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Maxwell
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« Reply #46 on: October 30, 2016, 12:09:30 pm »

I just don't understand where a Trump lead would come from is all - hispanics are turning against him, and there hasn't been any polling showing Trump doing any better than Romney with white voters.
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Devils30
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« Reply #47 on: October 30, 2016, 12:11:28 pm »

GOP still has some room to grow here with midwestern working class transplants. Trump's NC problem is that Romney maxed out the white non-college vote in 2012.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #48 on: October 30, 2016, 12:13:40 pm »

This is what we get for complaining about all the C+4 polls out of Florida.
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Ljube
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« Reply #49 on: October 30, 2016, 12:19:39 pm »

I just don't understand where a Trump lead would come from is all - hispanics are turning against him, and there hasn't been any polling showing Trump doing any better than Romney with white voters.

No. Hispanics are coming home.
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