Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 21, 2019, 03:22:42 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 Print
Author Topic: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4  (Read 5441 times)
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,134
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -1.24

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 30, 2016, 07:04:13 am »

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/30/upshot/florida-poll.html

Trump 46%
Clinton 42%
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 07:05:55 am »

Hmmm - interesting.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,593
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 07:07:55 am »

That's not good at all (their modeling is good). However they got an 11 point divergence between NC and FL which is very weird
Logged
Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,752
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2016, 07:08:50 am »

Yikes, this is not good
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,134
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -1.24

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2016, 07:09:29 am »

Quote
Clinton would have actually led in The Upshot’s survey if it, like most others, didn’t weight by party registration.

One possibility is that the public polls are understating Mr. Trump’s support because registered Republicans aren’t answering the telephone.

I would love to write that this was the only poll capturing the “hidden” Trump vote. And I would note that the Selzer/Bloomberg poll of Florida also happens to be weighted by party registration.

But based on my reporting, this is probably not what’s going on. Private pollsters are conducting surveys using similar methods, and they’re not seeing this. And after all, our poll found that registered Republicans were extremely likely to indicate their support for Mr. Trump — not exactly the shy Trump voter.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,145
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2016, 07:10:07 am »

But the Hillary supporters told me she has it "in the bag" ...
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2016, 07:10:14 am »

It is real...
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2016, 07:10:54 am »

That's not good at all (their modeling is good). However they got an 11 point divergence between NC and FL which is very weird

It's funny that the commentary around this, whilst arguing the numbers are possible, is very quick pour cold water as this being definitive.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2016, 07:11:06 am »

Hmmm - interesting.

Explain Roll Eyes
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,432


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2016, 07:12:10 am »

Wow... the race looks like it really is getting closer.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2016, 07:14:19 am »

It is pre-Weiner-gate poll. Junk! Cheesy
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2016, 07:19:32 am »

4-way: T+4
Trump  46%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 4%

2-way: T+3
Trump  48%
Clinton 45%

Senate: R+9
Rubio    51%
Murphy 42%
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2016, 07:21:39 am »


Hmmm. No. Smiley
Logged
Fusionmunster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,492


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2016, 07:22:09 am »

We've got an NBC poll of Florida coming in 39 minutes so i'll wait.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2016, 07:22:34 am »


Knew it Roll Eyes
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2016, 07:23:06 am »

We've got an NBC poll of Florida coming in 39 minutes so i'll wait.
And NC



Quote
Heads up: New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of FL and NC will be released at 9am ET
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,288
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2016, 07:23:58 am »

Eek.
Logged
Fusionmunster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,492


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2016, 07:24:58 am »

Something seems off though when their model is getting such wildly diffrent results from NC and FL.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2016, 07:26:28 am »

Something seems off though when their model is getting such wildly diffrent results from NC and FL.

NC is off Roll Eyes
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2016, 07:32:21 am »

Something seems off though when their model is getting such wildly diffrent results from NC and FL.

Honestly, the minority support for Trump do seem very generous. We'll see.
Logged
Bernie 2020
dfwlibertylover
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,509
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2016, 07:34:12 am »

I must say I did not expect this....
Logged
BoAtlantis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2016, 07:37:41 am »

I kinda figured Selzer was up to something.
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,707


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2016, 07:38:01 am »

Something seems off though when their model is getting such wildly diffrent results from NC and FL.

Honestly, the minority support for Trump do seem very generous. We'll see.

Latino Decisions have it 63-23 amongst Latinos. This poll is 59-30 but also shows a large swing back to Trump amongst Cubans. Might be tied to the Senate race.
Logged
Fusionmunster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,492


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2016, 07:40:26 am »

She doesnt need Florida but I want her to win it.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2016, 07:49:46 am »

Intresting...

Quote
Mr. Trump’s consolidation of Republican-leaning voters is a trend in national surveys, and it comes alongside a corresponding decline in the number of supporters for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, who received just 4 percent of the vote in our survey — the lowest of any Upshot/Siena poll. Republicans have been likelier than Democrats to support Mr. Johnson in most of our polls.



Whites are coming home?

Quote
Even college-educated white voters, who have been skeptical of Mr. Trump nationwide, are showing less skepticism in Florida. He has a lead of 51 percent to 35 percent among those voters in our survey.

Clinton weakness among white working-class Democrats
Mr. Trump leads among white voters without a college degree by an impressive margin of 63 percent to 24 percent. He’s so strong that Mrs. Clinton has just 55 percent of the vote among white registered Democrats without a degree, compared with Mr. Trump’s 32 percent.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 07:55:43 am by Happy Sad Trumpista »Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines