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  FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
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Author Topic: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4  (Read 6041 times)
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #50 on: October 30, 2016, 12:30:48 pm »

Florida's lost, world's ending, Clinton stands no chance, we're finished. Tongue

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Seriously?
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« Reply #51 on: October 30, 2016, 12:52:24 pm »

I just don't understand where a Trump lead would come from is all - hispanics are turning against him, and there hasn't been any polling showing Trump doing any better than Romney with white voters.
Look at the early vote numbers. Obviously, things could significantly change today since it's likely to be the heaviest pro-D day with all the church-sponsored stuff, but Trump slightly ahead between absentees and early vote. Unless this somehow changes over the next few days, you're looking at an R+ electorate in Florida, which favors Trump.

Republicans traditionally vote on Election Day there. Democrats use their padded lead to stave off any Republican advance.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #52 on: October 30, 2016, 12:53:00 pm »

Okay, everyone calm down (including the Trump supporters). Consider the following from the poll write up:

Quote
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Recall a previous Upshot feature where different pollsters were given the same Florida dataset and calculated the margin. The two pollsters weighing on party registration predicted 2-4 points higher votes for Trump relative to the one who didn't, holding likely voter screens equal.

The very good writeup also mentions two possible poll biases toward Trump:
- Oversampling of Republicans who support Trump rather than staying home, since weighing was done on party registration.
- The usual likely voter screen critique. Specifically, the voter screen may have worked against minorities sampled in the poll: if Latino or Black voters don't respond that they're very likely to vote, the Cuban-Americans crowd out other votes.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #53 on: October 30, 2016, 01:19:51 pm »

I will say about Florida, Trump has been spending an insane amount of time campaigning there, to the detriment of his campaign elsewhere. The presence of a candidate in a state can temporarily impact polling.
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Ljube
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« Reply #54 on: October 30, 2016, 01:23:10 pm »

I will say about Florida, Trump has been spending an insane amount of time campaigning there, to the detriment of his campaign elsewhere. The presence of a candidate in a state can temporarily impact polling.

Florida is a must win state for Trump.


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Ljube
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« Reply #55 on: October 30, 2016, 01:25:00 pm »

I think something is happening that is unique to Florida.  Early voting shows insane turnout in the retiree counties, basically even with the total 2012 early vote already.  She needs a ton of crossover from Cuban R's to stay in this.

Cubans are coming home to Trump.
That's pretty clear.
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Speaker OneJ
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« Reply #56 on: October 30, 2016, 01:25:40 pm »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).
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Ljube
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« Reply #57 on: October 30, 2016, 01:27:32 pm »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).

OK. We just need to wait 9 more days and see for sure.

I'm not saying Trump will win Florida by a big margin. I think the best he can hope for is a 1-2% win.
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dspNY
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« Reply #58 on: October 30, 2016, 01:28:22 pm »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).

OK. We just need to wait 9 more days and see for sure.

I'm not saying Trump will win Florida by a big margin. I think the best he can hope for is a 1-2% win.


I think this is the reasonable best case scenario for Trump in FL
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #59 on: October 30, 2016, 01:55:54 pm »

Ugggg.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #60 on: October 30, 2016, 02:55:26 pm »

yeah, trump can win FL.

and if he is not, we won't be able to see it before election day.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #61 on: October 30, 2016, 02:59:35 pm »

I think something is happening that is unique to Florida.  Early voting shows insane turnout in the retiree counties, basically even with the total 2012 early vote already.  She needs a ton of crossover from Cuban R's to stay in this.

Is it possible turnout taps out eventually? Is there evidence registration has surged there?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #62 on: October 30, 2016, 04:32:01 pm »

I think in this case, Cohn's Likely Voter model isn't going to fare so well when the votes are counted.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #63 on: October 30, 2016, 05:26:26 pm »

I think in this case, Cohn's Likely Voter model isn't going to fare so well when the votes are counted.
Party Reg, he has it at D+1. The Early Vote right favors the Republicans and Republicans traditionally show up on election day in Florida.  Obviously, we'll have a lot more color after today, traditionally one of the biggest D days in the Early vote cycle.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #64 on: October 30, 2016, 05:57:14 pm »

I think we'll all need to reexamine some of these Southern States once the Souls to the Polls numbers kick in tomorrow and SoS sites report the numbers.

I'm not going to geek out just because of a few polls, although data points appear to be converging that potentially Clinton's margins in NC could well outperform her FL margins.
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Wade McDaniel
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« Reply #65 on: October 30, 2016, 08:11:19 pm »

If things weren't bad enough for Democrats, these polls were taken before the FBI reopened investigation.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #66 on: October 30, 2016, 11:59:07 pm »

If things weren't bad enough for Democrats, these polls were taken before the FBI reopened investigation.
Thanks for that hard hitting analysis.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #67 on: October 31, 2016, 12:18:42 am »

FL was always going to be a Trump state, he always got his highest % there, sometimes polling as high as 47-49%.
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Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard
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« Reply #68 on: October 31, 2016, 12:22:55 am »

FL was always going to be a Trump state, he always got his highest % there, sometimes polling as high as 47-49%.
Has gotta be a concern troll.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #69 on: October 31, 2016, 12:23:55 am »

FL was always going to be a Trump state, he always got his highest % there, sometimes polling as high as 47-49%.
Has gotta be a concern troll.

The ignore button is right there.
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Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard
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« Reply #70 on: October 31, 2016, 12:25:17 am »

FL was always going to be a Trump state, he always got his highest % there, sometimes polling as high as 47-49%.
Has gotta be a concern troll.

The ignore button is right there.
I have no need for a safe space.
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Vosem
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« Reply #71 on: October 31, 2016, 12:37:21 am »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).

OK. We just need to wait 9 more days and see for sure.

I'm not saying Trump will win Florida by a big margin. I think the best he can hope for is a 1-2% win.


Ljube, Cubans are not coming home to Trump. What Trump may be doing, if he is winning in Florida, is overperforming with older, formerly Democratic-voting whites. There are business organizations in Miami that have endorsed every Republican nominee since the 1960s, including Goldwater, and they have uniformly backed Hillary Clinton in this election. It isn't happening.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #72 on: October 31, 2016, 06:47:05 am »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).
I don't know why you don't think 11% of the black vote is attainable in an election where the Democrat candidate is white. Traditionally, the Republican share of the black vote is somewhere between 8-12%. With Obama not running, you'd think there'd be a return to the mean.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #73 on: October 31, 2016, 06:52:34 am »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).
I don't know why you don't think 11% of the black vote is attainable in an election where the Democrat candidate is white. Traditionally, the Republican share of the black vote is somewhere between 8-12%. With Obama not running, you'd think there'd be a return to the mean.

While all this is true, Trump is not a "generic R" for African-Americans giving his birtherist smearing of Obama over the last several years and his record of discrimination in housing.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #74 on: October 31, 2016, 06:54:50 am »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).
I don't know why you don't think 11% of the black vote is attainable in an election where the Democrat candidate is white. Traditionally, the Republican share of the black vote is somewhere between 8-12%. With Obama not running, you'd think there'd be a return to the mean.

What might be happening is reduced democratic AA turnout with Obama off the ballot to the tune of 1-2 percentage points of the electorate back to normal levels when GOP candidates traditionally got about 10% of the AA vote. But Trump is a pretty bad fit for them so I'd expect him to get about 6% of the AA vote with reduced turnout.
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