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Author Topic: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4  (Read 5432 times)
heatcharger
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« on: October 30, 2016, 07:04:13 am »

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/30/upshot/florida-poll.html

Trump 46%
Clinton 42%
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 07:09:29 am »

Quote
Clinton would have actually led in The Upshot’s survey if it, like most others, didn’t weight by party registration.

One possibility is that the public polls are understating Mr. Trump’s support because registered Republicans aren’t answering the telephone.

I would love to write that this was the only poll capturing the “hidden” Trump vote. And I would note that the Selzer/Bloomberg poll of Florida also happens to be weighted by party registration.

But based on my reporting, this is probably not what’s going on. Private pollsters are conducting surveys using similar methods, and they’re not seeing this. And after all, our poll found that registered Republicans were extremely likely to indicate their support for Mr. Trump — not exactly the shy Trump voter.
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