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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4  (Read 5987 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: October 30, 2016, 07:10:14 am »

It is real...
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 07:11:06 am »


Explain Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 07:14:19 am »

It is pre-Weiner-gate poll. Junk! Cheesy
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2016, 07:19:32 am »

4-way: T+4
Trump  46%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 4%

2-way: T+3
Trump  48%
Clinton 45%

Senate: R+9
Rubio    51%
Murphy 42%
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2016, 07:22:34 am »


Knew it Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2016, 07:23:06 am »

We've got an NBC poll of Florida coming in 39 minutes so i'll wait.
And NC



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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2016, 07:26:28 am »

Something seems off though when their model is getting such wildly diffrent results from NC and FL.

NC is off Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2016, 07:49:46 am »
« Edited: October 30, 2016, 07:55:43 am by Happy Sad Trumpista »

Intresting...

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Whites are coming home?

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2016, 08:15:09 am »

Hmmm... perhaps registered Republicans are lying about their registration?
Siena/Upshot use a voter file. So they know voters' registrations. As I understood.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2016, 10:35:51 am »

This could be very well true as Hill has received some really bad publicity in the last few days.

IDK, what type of bad publicity you are talking about but this poll was coducted    OCT. 25-27.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2016, 10:39:21 am »

IIRC, Cohn mentioned one of the downsides of this type of polling is that it fails to pick up on new registrants, which would miss a recent surge in Hispanics registration. That alone probably wouldn't yield a Trump +4 lead though.

That's correct. They use voter registration file so it won't pick up the most recently registered voters.

But nonetheless, 4 point lead is huge.

That should be a negligible effect though. The biggest difference in this poll is that it weights to party registration, which it notes, lots of other pollster don't. Remains to be seen how accurate this will turn out.

Which could imply that no "movement" occured [yet], and other polls would show the same results if weighted "properly". If this method is accurate and noice didn't cause it etc.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2016, 12:27:01 pm »

I just don't understand where a Trump lead would come from is all - hispanics are turning against him, and there hasn't been any polling showing Trump doing any better than Romney with white voters.

No. Hispanics are coming home.


In fact, no. Whites are coming home.
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