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Author Topic: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4  (Read 5455 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: October 30, 2016, 07:10:14 am »

It is real...
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 07:11:06 am »

Hmmm - interesting.

Explain Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 07:14:19 am »

It is pre-Weiner-gate poll. Junk! Cheesy
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2016, 07:19:32 am »

4-way: T+4
Trump  46%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 4%

2-way: T+3
Trump  48%
Clinton 45%

Senate: R+9
Rubio    51%
Murphy 42%
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2016, 07:22:34 am »


Knew it Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2016, 07:23:06 am »

We've got an NBC poll of Florida coming in 39 minutes so i'll wait.
And NC



Quote
Heads up: New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of FL and NC will be released at 9am ET
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2016, 07:26:28 am »

Something seems off though when their model is getting such wildly diffrent results from NC and FL.

NC is off Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2016, 07:49:46 am »

Intresting...

Quote
Mr. Trump’s consolidation of Republican-leaning voters is a trend in national surveys, and it comes alongside a corresponding decline in the number of supporters for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, who received just 4 percent of the vote in our survey — the lowest of any Upshot/Siena poll. Republicans have been likelier than Democrats to support Mr. Johnson in most of our polls.



Whites are coming home?

Quote
Even college-educated white voters, who have been skeptical of Mr. Trump nationwide, are showing less skepticism in Florida. He has a lead of 51 percent to 35 percent among those voters in our survey.

Clinton weakness among white working-class Democrats
Mr. Trump leads among white voters without a college degree by an impressive margin of 63 percent to 24 percent. He’s so strong that Mrs. Clinton has just 55 percent of the vote among white registered Democrats without a degree, compared with Mr. Trump’s 32 percent.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 07:55:43 am by Happy Sad Trumpista »Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2016, 08:15:09 am »

Hmmm... perhaps registered Republicans are lying about their registration?
Siena/Upshot use a voter file. So they know voters' registrations. As I understood.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2016, 10:35:51 am »

This could be very well true as Hill has received some really bad publicity in the last few days.

IDK, what type of bad publicity you are talking about but this poll was coducted    OCT. 25-27.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2016, 10:39:21 am »

IIRC, Cohn mentioned one of the downsides of this type of polling is that it fails to pick up on new registrants, which would miss a recent surge in Hispanics registration. That alone probably wouldn't yield a Trump +4 lead though.

That's correct. They use voter registration file so it won't pick up the most recently registered voters.

But nonetheless, 4 point lead is huge.

That should be a negligible effect though. The biggest difference in this poll is that it weights to party registration, which it notes, lots of other pollster don't. Remains to be seen how accurate this will turn out.

Which could imply that no "movement" occured [yet], and other polls would show the same results if weighted "properly". If this method is accurate and noice didn't cause it etc.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2016, 12:27:01 pm »

I just don't understand where a Trump lead would come from is all - hispanics are turning against him, and there hasn't been any polling showing Trump doing any better than Romney with white voters.

No. Hispanics are coming home.


In fact, no. Whites are coming home.
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