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Author Topic: Salt Lake Tribune/Dan Jones Utah Poll - Trump +2 over McMullin  (Read 2470 times)
amdcpus
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« on: October 30, 2016, 07:49:17 am »

Trump 32%
McMullin 30%
Clinton 24%
Write-in/Don't Know 8%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%

Favorability ratings:

Trump: 29-70
Clinton: 24-75

Also interesting, 68% say Trump's videos do not effect their vote, 8% say it makes them more likely to vote for Clinton, 2% for Johnson, 0% for Trump and 18% for McMullin.

Poll has not been released yet, not sure when it will.

Conducted October 20-27.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 07:50:21 am »

Clinton should strategically cede Utah and urge her supporters to vote for McMullin at this point as a way to guarantee Trump's defeat in the EC, assuming the race is generally within these parameters (it increasingly appears so).
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 07:53:52 am »

Clinton should strategically cede Utah and urge her supporters to vote for McMullin at this point as a way to guarantee Trump's defeat in the EC, assuming the race is generally within these parameters (it increasingly appears so).

Does that make sense though? Since a split EV probably means a Trump victory in the House, Clinton needs to win a majority of EVs. A state going to McMullin or Trump makes no difference from that perspective.
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2016, 07:59:32 am »

Clinton should strategically cede Utah and urge her supporters to vote for McMullin at this point as a way to guarantee Trump's defeat in the EC, assuming the race is generally within these parameters (it increasingly appears so).


She should also run ads for McMullin in colorado, virginia and iowa in the last minute to siphon off conservative voters. Im reminded of how a environmentalist superpac in 2012 made a group that appeared to be a group protecting the interest of hunters in montana so they could run ads for a libertarian candidate. Really helped jon tester.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFzxnWJfTGw

Clinton should strategically cede Utah and urge her supporters to vote for McMullin at this point as a way to guarantee Trump's defeat in the EC, assuming the race is generally within these parameters (it increasingly appears so).

Does that make sense though? Since a split EV probably means a Trump victory in the House, Clinton needs to win a majority of EVs. A state going to McMullin or Trump makes no difference from that perspective.

spoiler: shes not going to win utah so better off to let mcmullin have it to embarrass trump.

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amdcpus
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2016, 08:54:11 am »

They released it half an hour ago: http://www.sltrib.com/news/4519840-155/trump-leads-barely-in-utah-where
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2016, 08:56:51 am »

Clinton should strategically cede Utah and urge her supporters to vote for McMullin at this point as a way to guarantee Trump's defeat in the EC, assuming the race is generally within these parameters (it increasingly appears so).

Does that make sense though? Since a split EV probably means a Trump victory in the House, Clinton needs to win a majority of EVs. A state going to McMullin or Trump makes no difference from that perspective.

I phrased that poorly and omitted valuable context, but what I was getting at was along the lines of what Hydera said: tell her supporters to vote McMullin to guarantee Trump doesn't win the EC, with the real reason being solely to deny him the EVs. Most voters aren't engaged enough or think about these things enough to realize that it wouldn't make any tangible difference for her, win or lose. I know mandates are kind of meaningless but knocking another state/6 EVs out of Trump's column would be a bit more icing on the cake at this point. The media of course would be going nuts over how Trump lost the most Republican state in 2012; good for a landslide/humiliation narrative.

I suppose it could at least give her a chance to fight another day if she was under 270 somehow; she'd at least be able to try to lobby the spineless House GOP to either give her the nomination or throw Trump under the bus by picking McMullin.  
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2016, 09:03:51 am »

Clinton should strategically cede Utah and urge her supporters to vote for McMullin at this point as a way to guarantee Trump's defeat in the EC, assuming the race is generally within these parameters (it increasingly appears so).

Does that make sense though? Since a split EV probably means a Trump victory in the House,

As we've talked about in these threads before, if the GOP manages to hold onto the Senate, then a split EV probably leads to President Pence, as there are enough anti-Trump Republicans in the House to stop anyone from getting a majority.  So then it goes to the VP choice in the Senate, where if the GOP holds power, we would get President Pence.  OTOH, if the Dems hold the Senate, then I guess the House GOP will try to compromise to prevent President Kaine.

Though, sure, it's unclear that Clinton finds President Pence a more appealing option than President Trump.
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2016, 09:23:26 am »

New Poll: Utah President by Dan Jones on 2016-10-27

Summary: D: 24%, R: 32%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 09:28:50 am by Dave Leip »Logged
eric82oslo
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2016, 09:25:33 am »

Also interesting, 68% say Trump's videos do not effect their vote, 8% say it makes them more likely to vote for Clinton, 2% for Johnson, 0% for Trump and 18% for McMullin.

0% says it makes them more likely to vote for Trump having seen the Access Hollywood tape. That tells you want kind of moral state Utah is. They really don't like gloating and boasting serial rapists there. Two thumbs up for Utahns.
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2016, 09:27:45 am »

Conducted October 20-27.

This poll is already very old, on average it's a week old. That means that I'm pretty sure that McMullin should be ahead at this point, had they asked the voters of the state today or yesterday. McMullin has gotten a lot of media attention from outlets in Utah during the last week or so.
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2016, 10:36:28 am »

The article said that McMullin is dominating with under-45s, while Trump is well ahead with over 45s.
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2016, 11:21:32 am »

Clinton should strategically cede Utah and urge her supporters to vote for McMullin at this point as a way to guarantee Trump's defeat in the EC, assuming the race is generally within these parameters (it increasingly appears so).

Why would democrats vote for a man who is positioned far to the right of Trump?
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2016, 11:22:32 am »

Clinton should strategically cede Utah and urge her supporters to vote for McMullin at this point as a way to guarantee Trump's defeat in the EC, assuming the race is generally within these parameters (it increasingly appears so).

And regardless, this strategy flopped big league in the primaries (remember Rubio and Kasich?).
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anthony1691
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2016, 11:27:23 am »

Clinton should strategically cede Utah and urge her supporters to vote for McMullin at this point as a way to guarantee Trump's defeat in the EC, assuming the race is generally within these parameters (it increasingly appears so).

Why would democrats vote for a man who is positioned far to the right of Trump?
I assume he means the nevertrumpers voting for Clinton in Utah.
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2016, 11:55:20 am »

I think Dan Jones already did a poll post #Mcmuffinmentum. How does this compare to their previous one?
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2016, 12:03:48 pm »

Most recent UT Dan Jones I could find was Sept. 12-19:

Quote
Trump 34
Clinton 25
Johnson 13
McMuffin 12

so this would be

Trump 32 (-2)
McMuffin 30 (+18)
Clinton 24 (-1)
Johnson 4 (-9)
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King
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2016, 12:31:03 pm »

I think McMullin actually has the ground game advantage here because of the Church. Pretty confident he will pull it out. Nothing the Trump campaign is doing is what they need to right this ship.
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2016, 12:39:49 pm »

This also predates Trump's "coffee shop" comments, which can't possibly have helped
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2016, 12:41:08 pm »

Most recent UT Dan Jones I could find was Sept. 12-19:

Quote
Trump 34
Clinton 25
Johnson 13
McMuffin 12

so this would be

Trump 32 (-2)
McMuffin 30 (+18)
Clinton 24 (-1)
Johnson 4 (-9)

Good!
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2016, 12:46:38 pm »

I think McMullin actually has the ground game advantage here because of the Church. Pretty confident he will pull it out. Nothing the Trump campaign is doing is what they need to right this ship.

Trump's ground game is pitiful if it even exists. Looking at his favorability numbers in Utah, voters there aren't exactly enthusiastic about voting for him. McMullin's voters seem rather excited. Clinton might outperform by a percent or two, but I'm still thinking that McMullin can narrowly pull it off.

As Vosem mentioned, Trump's "coffee shop" quote won't endear him to Mormons.
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2016, 12:48:30 pm »

Most recent UT Dan Jones I could find was Sept. 12-19:

Quote
Trump 34
Clinton 25
Johnson 13
McMuffin 12

so this would be

Trump 32 (-2)
McMuffin 30 (+18)
Clinton 24 (-1)
Johnson 4 (-9)

Good!

However, there was also a Dan Jones poll Oct 12-18, predating this one, which is 20-27. That one had:

Trump 30
McMullin 29
Clinton 25
Johnson 5

So Trump has gained 2 points, McMullin has gained 1, and Clinton and Johnson have dropped 1 each. Looks like the race has stalled out a very narrow Trump lead, though I can't stress that we haven't seen the effects of "coffee shop" and that undecideds remain pretty high, and you could make an argument for them swinging either direction.

Notably, in the crosstabs, McMullin has narrowly pulled into the lead among "somewhat active" Mormons, where he trailed Trump in the earlier poll, and has gained among "very active" Mormons (to 44%), but he remains in single-digits among non-Mormons, and Trump is getting typical Republican nominee numbers (in the 30s) keeping him afloat. There's also a large age gap (Trump leads "massively" with over-45s, McMullin leads "massively" with under-45s) and a gender gap (Trump leads among men, Clinton leads among women).

Issue polling backs Trump and Clinton on different issues (generally Trump on domestic policy like immigration/economics, Clinton on foreign policy), though notably 85% of Utahns reject the assertion that the election will be rigged, which is an amazingly high number. 61% also support elected officials who withdrew their endorsement from Trump.
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2016, 12:50:23 pm »

Most recent UT Dan Jones I could find was Sept. 12-19:

Quote
Trump 34
Clinton 25
Johnson 13
McMuffin 12

so this would be

Trump 32 (-2)
McMuffin 30 (+18)
Clinton 24 (-1)
Johnson 4 (-9)

Good!

However, there was also a Dan Jones poll Oct 12-18, predating this one, which is 20-27. That one had:

Trump 30
McMullin 29
Clinton 25
Johnson 5


Dang it, how did I miss this? I wonder if RCP didn't add it or named it strangely. Thanks for the find, Vosem.
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2016, 12:53:23 pm »

This does suggest the race has stabilized. That said, crazy things can always happen in 3-ways.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2016, 12:59:47 pm »

Clinton should strategically cede Utah and urge her supporters to vote for McMullin at this point as a way to guarantee Trump's defeat in the EC, assuming the race is generally within these parameters (it increasingly appears so).

Why would democrats vote for a man who is positioned far to the right of Trump?

What could be far to the right for extreme fascism? Nothing I think, except for outright nazism.
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"A kiss can be 10 times more effective than morphine in reducing pain by triggering the body's natural painkillers."

Trump equals Satan. If people doesn't start to realize that extremely basic part of human being, then I'm gonna start to self-destruct pretty soon.
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2016, 01:24:17 pm »

Clinton should strategically cede Utah and urge her supporters to vote for McMullin at this point as a way to guarantee Trump's defeat in the EC, assuming the race is generally within these parameters (it increasingly appears so).

Why would democrats vote for a man who is positioned far to the right of Trump?

McMullin is far to Trump's left on immigration, taking in refugees, and religious freedom.
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