Salt Lake Tribune/Dan Jones Utah Poll - Trump +2 over McMullin (user search)
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  Salt Lake Tribune/Dan Jones Utah Poll - Trump +2 over McMullin (search mode)
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Author Topic: Salt Lake Tribune/Dan Jones Utah Poll - Trump +2 over McMullin  (Read 3956 times)
Vosem
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E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« on: October 30, 2016, 12:39:49 PM »

This also predates Trump's "coffee shop" comments, which can't possibly have helped
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,637
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 12:48:30 PM »

Most recent UT Dan Jones I could find was Sept. 12-19:

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so this would be

Trump 32 (-2)
McMuffin 30 (+18)
Clinton 24 (-1)
Johnson 4 (-9)

Good!

However, there was also a Dan Jones poll Oct 12-18, predating this one, which is 20-27. That one had:

Trump 30
McMullin 29
Clinton 25
Johnson 5

So Trump has gained 2 points, McMullin has gained 1, and Clinton and Johnson have dropped 1 each. Looks like the race has stalled out a very narrow Trump lead, though I can't stress that we haven't seen the effects of "coffee shop" and that undecideds remain pretty high, and you could make an argument for them swinging either direction.

Notably, in the crosstabs, McMullin has narrowly pulled into the lead among "somewhat active" Mormons, where he trailed Trump in the earlier poll, and has gained among "very active" Mormons (to 44%), but he remains in single-digits among non-Mormons, and Trump is getting typical Republican nominee numbers (in the 30s) keeping him afloat. There's also a large age gap (Trump leads "massively" with over-45s, McMullin leads "massively" with under-45s) and a gender gap (Trump leads among men, Clinton leads among women).

Issue polling backs Trump and Clinton on different issues (generally Trump on domestic policy like immigration/economics, Clinton on foreign policy), though notably 85% of Utahns reject the assertion that the election will be rigged, which is an amazingly high number. 61% also support elected officials who withdrew their endorsement from Trump.
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