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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)  (Read 3187 times)
dspNY
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« on: October 30, 2016, 08:03:51 am »

FL: Clinton 45, Trump 44, Johnson 5, Stein 2 (4-way)
Tied at 46 (2-way)

NC: Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 8 (4-way)
Clinton 50, Trump 44 (2-way)

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 08:04:43 am »

Florida is concerning, but Clinton up 6 points in North Carolina might be too much for Trump to overcome before election day. That seems to validate Nate Cohen's NC model that Clinton is currently up 6.3% based on the early vote.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 08:06:19 am by Gass3268 »Logged

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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 08:05:03 am »

Something is definitely happening in Florida
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2016, 08:05:31 am »

Gird your loins ladies, Florida is gonna be close. Guess NC is lean D.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2016, 08:05:39 am »

wow, more evidence that NC might vote left of Florida
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ReapSow
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2016, 08:05:59 am »

Good thing she can afford to lose Florida if she wins North Carolina.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2016, 08:06:34 am »

Good polls for Hillary. Intresting that Johnson is getting 8% in NC Smiley
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2016, 08:06:53 am »

I'll forget about FL. I'll take NC.
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dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2016, 08:06:59 am »

NC could be a lot more pivotal than anyone thought. It almost looks like another Virginia in some polls. It was an extra state for Obama in 2012 but could be part of a Clinton firewall
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2016, 08:07:21 am »

Good thing she can afford to lose Florida if she wins North Carolina.

She can afford to lost both, if her firewall stand
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King Francis I
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2016, 08:07:40 am »

I'm really surprised tbh, never expected NC to be to the left of FL
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2016, 08:08:21 am »

Quote
Among the 36 percent of likely voters in Florida who say they've already voted, Clinton is ahead, 54 percent to 37 percent.

Among those who haven't voted in the Sunshine State, Trump is up, 51 percent to 42 percent.

And Clinton leads by a 61 percent-to-33 percent margin among the 29 percent of North Carolinians who say they've already voted.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2016, 08:08:40 am »

Good polls for Hillary. Intresting that Johnson is getting 8% in NC Smiley

Libertarians have recently done pretty well in NC.
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dspNY
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2016, 08:09:10 am »

I'm really surprised tbh, never expected NC to be to the left of FL

NC is behaving a lot like Virginia. Similar trends with lots of college-educated whites and a different type of economy (more service and research based). From what I've heard, Wake County is a disaster for Trump and if he gets crushed there, he can't win statewide
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2016, 08:09:15 am »

I'm really surprised tbh, never expected NC to be to the left of FL

Yeah, by 8% if you average NC and FL polls by Marist and Siena. Oh!
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Brittain33
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2016, 08:09:24 am »

Quote
Among the 36 percent of likely voters in Florida who say they've already voted, Clinton is ahead, 54 percent to 37 percent.

Among those who haven't voted in the Sunshine State, Trump is up, 51 percent to 42 percent.

I want to make sense of this and similar results in NC without being overconfident in Clinton's chances. What accounts for this?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2016, 08:10:35 am »

Good polls for Hillary. Intresting that Johnson is getting 8% in NC Smiley

Libertarians have recently done pretty well in NC.
Yeah, and Siena/Upshot has him at 8% as well. But he is not getting anything in early vote.
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2016, 08:15:32 am »

Looks like North Carolina ist in d/ie/as/er frieval?

I'll definitely take 288 EVs. Looks like Trump might his way to a 2004-style result. Though I think Republicans haven't improved yet in Nevada and they need to a lot so maybe 294 votes with Florida deciding between a 2012 and a 2004-like result?
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2016, 08:15:33 am »

So it looks like NC has solidified for Clinton, while Florida is now back to a pure tossup.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 08:18:43 am by Mehmentum »Logged
dspNY
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2016, 08:16:01 am »

HB2 has to be a hurricane-force headwind against the GOP in NC right now for NC to be voting 5-6 points to the left of FL

Early vote subsamples:

In FL, 36% of voters have already voted and Clinton is winning them 54-37. Trump is winning those who haven't voted yet 51-42. That's significant because Clinton is banking her vote and giving herself a better chance.

In NC, 29% of voters have already voted and Clinton is winning them 61-33. To make up these deficits, Trump must have a serious ground game on 11/8
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heatcharger
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2016, 08:16:45 am »

Here's Trump's path to victory without NC:



Safe to say it's ridiculous.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2016, 08:17:40 am »

So it looks like NC is solidify for Clinton, while Florida is now back to a pure tossup.

Yeah, NC is sort of must win for Trump. Hopefully, Weiner gate will drive Republicans from Johnson/undecided voters back to Trump.
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Castro
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2016, 08:20:45 am »

Not great to see such close polls recently in Florida (since I want a sizeable victory), but North Carolina is great news to people that only care about the big win. Without NC, there is no realistic path for Trump to win. He's not winning PA, he's not winning CO, and he's not winning MI.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2016, 08:22:08 am »

So it looks like NC is solidify for Clinton, while Florida is now back to a pure tossup.

Yeah, NC is sort of must win for Trump. Hopefully, Weiner gate will drive Republicans from Johnson/undecided voters back to Trump.

Spoilers: It wont.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2016, 08:22:54 am »


To make up these deficits, Trump must have a serious ground game on 11/8

Does anyone think this is going to appear?
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